Monday, April 13, 2020

Monday - Sunny and windy. High: 44-48

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 30-34


Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 48-52


Tuesday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 30-34


Wednesday - Partly sunny. High: 54-58

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Below average temperatures dominate this forecast period. A cold front associated 
with a large low pressure system moved through Columbia late yesterday, bringing 
gusty winds out of the north. As this system continues to move to the East, winds 
will die down through the forecast period, but wind gusts up to 30mph are likely today. 
Mid-level clouds will cover the sun for most of the day tomorrow, but as winds calm 
and the sun comes back out, we expect a slow warm up into Wednesday. 
Forecasters: Clemons, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: April 13, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used for this forecast period as suggested by the WPC. 
Cold FROPA occurred in Columbia around 00Z yesterday associated with a low 
pressure system centered at 994mb. As of 06Z this morning, 4 isobars fell across 
the state of Missouri, as winds gusted up to 46mph at COU. The NWS has put us 
under a Wind Advisory until noon today due to winds forecasted to gust up to 30mph 
through the morning. Winds are currently from the NW, as we sit behind the cold front
 and to the SW of the Low. Soundings suggest CAA with winds backing with height, 
and this is expected after cold FROPA. At 250mb, Missouri was in a meridional flow 
after yesterday’s post-frontal rain event, but we have since transitioned into a more 
zonal flow, and we are forecasted to stay in this calm synoptic pattern through the 
forecast period. 

Winds begin to calm as the Low continues to move to the East. Moving into Tuesday, 
winds start to turn counter-clockwise and are westerly by Wednesday. Regardless, 
these wind directions indicate moisture-starved air masses through the forecast period. 
Soundings suggest mid-level clouds between 400-600mb covering the Sun for most of 
the day tomorrow, but clearing by Wednesday. These factors will contribute to a slight 
warm up into Wednesday. Future forecasters should pay attention to temperatures 
though, because WAA could lead to potential convection on Wednesday. As of right now, 
probabilities are very low due to the fact that the synoptic features aren’t quite there. We 
are looking at fairly zonal flow with maybe enough of a kink in it to set up a shortwave. 
However, forecasted surface lapse rates from the NAM at 18Z on Wednesday are 
9.3 °C/km. This sounding also indicates sufficient Omega values, but lacks moisture. 
Depending on if temperatures can warm close to 60°F and moisture advection can ignite, 
we could see some precipitation to end this forecast period. The GFS is suggesting that 
the moisture will stay to our North, but this is something that future forecasters should 
keep an eye on.

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