Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Tuesday Night - Mostly Cloudy, Possible Rain. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 50-54

Wednesday Night - Cloudy, Possible Rain. Low: 34-38

Thursday - Cloudy, Rain Possible. High: 52-56

Friday - Cloudy, Possible Rain/Snow Mix. High: 44-48

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The below average temperatures that we are currently experiencing will continue
throughout the rest of the mid-week. Along with the below average temperatures,
there is a chance of some light rain overnight tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
for tomorrow through Friday with rain also possible for Thursday and Friday with a
possibility of some snow to mix in on Friday.  
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued: 5:00pm: April 14, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Model preference for this forecast period is a ECMWF/UKMET blend. That blend was
used for this forecast period due to it matching well with the current observations. SREF
Plumes were used for temperatures.

The main topics of this forecast period are the below average temperatures continuing
into this weekend and the rain potential each day this week, and the potential for a
rain/snow mix for Friday.

250mb winds are indicating a jet max off to the south of Missouri. The jet max will
move off to the east overnight tonight putting Missouri in the left entrance region
indicating convergence aloft and divergence at the surface. These winds are also
indicating a zonal flow pattern throughout the central CONUS. The flow off to the
northwest indicates a northwest flow which indicates a potential active pattern going
into the late week.

500mb vorticity indicates a shortwave coming out of the northwest associated with the
northwest flow coming out of northwest Canada. This shortwave will reach Missouri
late Thursday night and will last through early Saturday morning.

700mb RH and UVM remain dry and calm respectively through late Thursday. After that,
and increase in RH to near 100% and UVM between 15-20 ubar/s during this time along
with the 500mb circulation indicate late week rain. Currently, it is too far out to make
any rainfall total predictions. Refer to later shifts for a more accurate rainfall prediction.
Along with rain on Friday, there is a potential for a rain/snow mix on Friday morning. As
of now, nothing significant looks to come out of it. The following shifts will be able to
get a more detailed look of it. 

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