Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Wednesday Night - Decreasing Clouds. Low: 42-46

Thursday - Sunny Skies. High: 66-70

Thursday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 46-50

Friday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 74-78

Saturday - Mostly Sunny. High: 80-84

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 With a massive low-pressure system moving to the east, clouds will stick around into the late evening hours tonight. However, high pressure will begin to build in from the west. Central Missouri will feel its effect, as this high will help to clear out some of the moisture. With northerly winds remaining, temperatures will stay cooler on Thursday, but will still be warm due to the influence of plentiful sunshine. However, winds will switch around to the south during the morning hours on Friday. Those southerly winds will help boost our temperatures into the middle to upper 70’s for the first day of May. The southern winds will also bring in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, creating a few clouds for our Friday. Saturday, we will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 80’s. Enjoy the weather on Saturday, because we will enter another active pattern to begin next week. 
Forecasters: Vanderpool, Pauley, Ritter
Issued:  5:oopm: April 29, 2020.
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main feature in the near-term continues to be the large cyclone rotating over the Great Lakes/Midwest. This low-pressure system was (and continues to be) responsible for the persistent low cloudiness and stiff northerly winds across Mid-Missouri. WPC surface analysis as of 18z indicated that the center of the surface low was located over western Michigan and that the low was just beginning to occlude. Short-range prognostics (next ~24 hours) show this low remaining almost stationary over Michigan, though it will begin to decay later on tonight and into tomorrow as negative vorticity advection occurs on the backside of the 500-mb trough. 

For the local region, models agree that cloud cover will shift east of central MO starting late this afternoon and into the evening. This will leave the forecast area under mostly clear skies tonight, with the northerly flow on the backside of the aforementioned cyclone continuing to contribute to modest cold air advection. This CAA, in combination with the clear skies, will lead to ideal conditions for maximized overnight cooling. Lows are currently forecast to fall into the low to mid-40s. Fog may be a possibility in isolated spots, though this will be dependent upon wind speeds. Currently, surface winds look to remain around 5-10 kt, which should be just strong enough to prevent widespread fog from forming. 

Tomorrow, a beautiful day is in store for Mid-MO as ridging builds in from the west. This will lead to clear skies and moderate winds at the surface. Backing wind profiles indicate that CAA will still be a contributing factor in keeping temperatures slightly cooler than they otherwise would be, but the air to our north just isn’t that chilly. With plentiful sunshine also expected, insolation should be enough to drive temperatures up into the upper 60s to near 70. The mostly clear skies and calm weather will remain into Thursday night, with one more night of fairly light winds and good radiational cooling in store. This will allow lows to fall into the upper 40s, though as the surface high/ridging shifts east, modest warm air advection will begin towards daybreak. 

On Friday, central MO will begin in earnest on another warming trend to kick off May 2020. The GFS indicates strong southerly flow out ahead of a developing cyclone on the lee side slope of the Rockies. This deterministic solution is supported by ensemble guidance, which predicts strong WAA and clear skies contributing to above-average temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. This WAA will also help to bring moisture into the region, with dew points increasing throughout the day. 

By Saturday, the developing surface cyclone is progged to eject into the southern Midwest. However, the cyclone will be fighting a slight ridging pattern aloft at 500-mb, which is not conducive to the strength or even maintenance of the surface low. As a result, model guidance suggests a fizzling of this low. Saturday, therefore, looks to remain dry and sunny, with strong WAA driving temperatures above the 80-degree mark. Chances for precipitation (in the form of rain and thunderstorms) will probably hold off until late Saturday night and Sunday as a shortwave with accompanying vorticity maxima makes its way into Missouri. 

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