Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Tuesday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy/PM showers. High: 66-70

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with rain. Low: 48-52

Thursday - Cloudy with rain. High: 68-72

Friday - Cloudy, possible rain/storms. High: 64-68

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Tonight the skies will continue to remain clear along with temperatures close to normal.
Temperatures will remain near normal for tomorrow however, clouds will move into the
area for mid-morning. Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the rest of the day with
a chance for rain overnight. These cloudy skies and rain will continue into Thursday with
a break in the rain Thursday evening. The rain will pick back up for Friday with the
possibility of thunderstorms mixed in with the rain. Temperatures throughout this wet period
will remain average.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: April 21, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Model guidance suggests a general model blend. 12z blend of NAM and GFS were used
due to them matching well with the track of the shortwave moving through the area. GEFS
plumes were used for temperatures and rain totals for the first wave of rain.

The main topics of this forecast period are when the rain will move into the area and whether
there will be any storms embedded in with the rain.

250mb winds put Columbia and Missouri as a whole to the east of a jet coupling. Te polar jet to
the north is contributing to the northwest flow that is the driver for the sunny skies and slightly
cooler temperatures that we are experiencing today. The northwest flow continues to mid-day
tomorrow. The flow becomes zonal until very late tomorrow night when a weak trough digs into
the area for the rest of the week.

500mb vorticity doesn't show much until mid to late afternoon tomorrow when the
atmospheric circulation begins to increase. Along with the circulation, there will be a 500mb
trough that that sets up over western Missouri at this same time. This trough will move
across Missouri late tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

700mb UVM and RH remain low and dry respectively until late tomorrow night as well. Like
the previous two levels, a trough will dig in and reach Missouri late tomorrow night. The
UVM reaches as high as 25ubar/s and the RH reaches as high as 95%.This is an indicator
of rain. However, no storms look to come out of this due to the lack of CAPE available.

A break in the rain will occur early Thursday night. However, the rain will pick back up for
Friday due to multiple shortwaves moving across the area. Thunderstorms embedded in
this rain looks possible due to an increase in CAPE values and 850mb low level winds
which allows for a moisture flow out of the Gulf of Mexico to fuel these potential storms.
Rain totals for the first wave of rain look to be along the lines of 1.5-1.75 inches. It is
currently too early to get an accurate rain forecast for Friday. Refer to later forecast shifts
for the rain totals for Friday.

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