Thursday, April 2, 2020

Thursday Night - Cloudy with showers possible. Low: 52-56

Friday - Cloudy with rain likely. High: 58-62

Friday Night - Cloudy with rain. Low: 36-40

Saturday - Decreasing clouds. High: 52-56

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 62-66

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Cloudy skies will continue Thursday night into Saturday night due to a low pressure system moving through the Midwest. Showers are likely Thursday evening into Friday. Rain is likely Friday, mainly after noon. A cold front is expected to move through Columbia late afternoon into the early evening hours on Friday bringing overnight temperatures down to the upper 30s. Rain is anticipated to stop very early Saturday morning leading to cloudy skies for the first half of the day. Partly cloudy skies return Saturday afternoon through Sunday. (CD)

Forecasters: Lieberman, Dowell, Ritter
Issued:  6:00PM: April 2, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

We used the GFS and NAM supplemented with SREF and GEFS. The model diagnosis from the WPC recommends a non-UKMET blend for this forecast. (CD)
From the top down and beginning with 250MB, Missouri is currently in zonal flow with a small ridging action in Iowa and northward. A trough is stretched from Alberta to southern Nevada with a jet streak stretching from Wichita Falls, TX, through Savannah, GA. At 500MB, both the trough and ridge are more defined and the ridge is currently east of Columbia. Additionally, there is some circulation to the west At 700MB, central Missouri does not have an abundance of moisture, currently 50-60 percent RH. At 850MB, low levels are supporting moisture transport into Missouri. (CD)
At the surface, a cold front extends from a low pressure system in central Minnesota down to central Kansas. (CL)
Looking forward to tonight, circulation associated with a weak trough at 500MB and the low pressure system to the north will move into Columbia. At the same time at 850MB, southerly winds associated with the low level jet will advect moisture into the area. This will lead to moderate precipitation this evening into tomorrow morning. Then, at approximately 18Z on Friday, the aforementioned cold front extending from the low pressure system over the northern Midwest will pass over Columbia. This will produce continued precipitation until early in the morning on Saturday. Soundings throughout this period show low level saturation and moderate lift. Significant instability is limited to south of Missouri. The maximum CAPE values shown on soundings for Columbia do not reach even 500 J/Kg. This makes convective precipitation a possibility but thunderstorms are very unlikely. Overnight, northerly winds and evaporating precipitation mean that temperatures will drop into high thirties. (CL)

Saturday, moisture and clouds will clear out as dry air is advected from the southwest. The low pressure system to our north will weaken and zonal flow will set in over the midwest. At the surface, high pressure will set in and temperatures will warm into the mid 50’s. This trend will continue into Sunday as pressure and temperatures increase throughout the day. (CL)

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