Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 56-60

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 78-82

Wednesday Night - Possible storms in the evening, overnight clearing. Low: 38-42

Thursday - Sunny. High: 54-58

Friday - Sunny. High: 54-58

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The clear skies and above average temperatures that we are getting will continue for
tomorrow as well. This is because of a strong ridging pattern that is situated over the
central part of the country. Tomorrow evening, the ridging pattern will move off to the
east which will bring in a cold front and a chance of some rain and storms along the front.
After the passage of the front, skies will clear. This will cause temperatures for Thursday and
Friday to be as much as 25 degrees colder than they previously were on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: April 7, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
Model preference calls for a non-12z NAM blend. Decided to go with the 12z GFS due
to it matching well with current observations.

The main topics of this forecast period are the clear skies and above average
temperatures that will last until tomorrow evening. A potential for rain and storms
associated with the passage of the front, and lastly a sharp temperature drop
off for Thursday and Friday also associated with the frontal passage.

The unseasonably warm and sunny day that occurred today will occur again tomorrow.
This is due to a ridging pattern occurring at the 250mb level. This ridging pattern is the
driving force for these unseasonably warm temperatures. Looking ahead for tomorrow
evening, 500mb vorticity indicates a shortwave coming into the area around 00z Thursday
morning. This along with an increase in 700mb RH and UVM indicate a frontal passage
and potential rain and storms. As of right now, due to the lack of SBCAPE and low level
support, nothing strong to severe looks to come out of them, just rain and a potential
storm. A change in wind direction occurs late tomorrow evening as a backing wind profile
will occur which will clear skies and usher in CAA which will drop temperatures for
Thursday and Friday nearly 25 degrees.

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