Monday, April 20, 2020

Monday - Partly sunny. High: 64-68

Monday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 40-44

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 62-66

Tuesday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 42-46 

Wednesday - Cloudy. Rain possible in the afternoon. High: 64-68

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A weak and slow-moving cold front moved across the state within the last 24 hours, 
but temperatures will stay spring-like through the forecast period. Columbia will see
passing clouds through the day today, with a chance for some rain to fall in the early 
afternoon. However, the probability that all of the ingredients will be in the same place 
at the same time is very low, so we should stay dry today. Clouds decrease overnight, 
allowing for blue skies tomorrow. Moisture will move back into the state by Wednesday 
as overcast skies will drop rain across Missouri Wednesday afternoon.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: April 20, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The forecast early this week involves seasonal temperatures and the possibility for 
some April showers today and Wednesday. Currently, we are dominated by high pressure 
as a weak cold front passed over us last night. The front is now stationary and lies over 
southern Missouri. Right now it is in the upper 50s with winds from the WSW. As guided 
by the WPC, we used a general model blend of the NAM and GFS for this forecast.  

Today, a shortwave is forecasted to move across Missouri from the NW. The wave is very 
small and is only evident from 700mb and below. Therefore, weak convergence is possible 
at the surface. This may cause some isolated storms to develop. However, moisture is
limited and the probability for storms, or any precipitation, remains low. After this wave 
passes, we dry out Tuesday with sunny skies forecasted for most of the day as a high 
pressure system dominates the Midwest. 

Tuesday night we begin to see another shortwave begin to develop east of the Rockies 
along with cyclogenesis at the Texas and Oklahoma border. This system looks to be better 
set up for precipitation over the area as the wave moves over Missouri Wednesday afternoon
to Thursday. Aloft we begin to see winds shift from NW to SW Wednesday morning.

At 500mb, vorticity values also increase as the cyclone begins to develop along with vertical
velocity at 700mb. Also associated with this set up, a strong southly low level jet sets up, 
providing plenty of moisture from the gulf. Soundings begin to indicate rain beginning early 
Wednesday afternoon with saturation from 250mb all the way to the surface. The rain will 
likely last until Thursday morning. As this event is still 3 days from now, intensity and precip 
amounts are not clear yet with QPF values varying from 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches for 
Wednesday into Thursday. Convection does not seem to be severe Wednesday; however, 
future forecasters should take a closer look on Thursday as the low develops.

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