Thursday, April 23, 2020

Thursday Night - Cloudy. Low: 48-52

Friday - Overcast with PM rain, thunderstorms possible in the evening. High: 64-68

Friday Night - Overcast with rain. Low: 48-52

Saturday  - Decreasing clouds with rain possible in the morning. High: 58-62

Sunday - Mostly sunny. High: 62-66

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Clearing skies will begin to occur early Thursday evening into early Friday morning. However, these clear skies will not last long. A low-pressure system is expected to form upstream over the Texas panhandle late tonight. This system will bring rain to mid-Missouri, along with the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder. Rain is possible Friday morning becoming more likely in the afternoon. It is expected to continue into Saturday morning before clouds begin to decrease into the evening. Sunday looks to be the best day in this forecast with mostly sunny skies and a high in the low to mid 60s, so be sure to enjoy it. CD  
Forecasters: Lieberman, Dowell, Ritter
Issued:  5:00pm: April 23, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

We used the GFS and NAM supplemented with SREF and GEFS. The model diagnosis from the WPC recommends a general model blend for this forecast. CD
Beginning with 250MB, there is a jet max stretched from Louisiana to northern Virginia with the winds peaking at 125 knots over central Tennessee. At 500MB, there is a slightly positively tilted trough stretching through mid-Missouri while extending down to the Oklahoma and Arkansas border. There is also a large area of circulation over mid-Missouri and eastward where the cloud cover is still occuring. The circulation becomes scarce upstream with the clear skies. At 700MB, the trough is a bit more defined over the central CONUS. The moisture that was a key ingredient in the rain last night and this morning is now moving downstream. Finally, at the surface, there is a low-pressure centered over the Missouri/Kentucky/Tennessee border. This is causing two large areas of precipitation. Mostly stratiform rain over the Ohio River Valley and thunderstorms across the deep south. CD
Thursday night is expected to be clear with clouds increasing near dawn along with low temperatures being seasonable in the upper 40s to low 50s. A low-pressure system is expected to develop over the Texas panhandle overnight and track eastward in the coming days. CD

At 500MB, a trough is deepening significantly and circulation ahead of it will reach Missouri early Friday. The result is significant UVM at 700 and 850MB as early as 9Z. RH fields at these levels indicate saturation will accompany the lift. Soundings are not as encouraging for precipitation early on Friday. Lift is much sparcer in Columbia than omega charts would indicate. For this reason, precipitation is unlikely until around 18Z. Then, a low pressure system tracking across Oklahoma into Arkansas will begin to influence our weather. This system will be in the mature phase with a vertically stacked center that will reach northern Arkansas late Friday night. Instability associated with the cyclone results in a wide range of CAPE values from SREF members. Most show a peak value Friday evening, some showing excess of 1000 J/Kg but the mean is about 700J/Kg. This makes evening thunderstorms fairly likely and precipitation nearly guaranteed. CL

Rain will persist into early Saturday. SREF plumes show most members increasing QPF until late Saturday morning. Then, the low pressure system will be downstream and zonal flow will set in over the coming days. Moisture will clear out throughout the day Saturday. Bringing back seasonal temperatures and calm weather. CL

This will continue into Sunday. One small ribbon of circulation indicates a minor disturbance at 500MB may that will pass over Columbia late Sunday. This will result in few clouds and a very low chance for trace precipitation. But otherwise, seasonal temperatures and calm weather will last through the day. CL

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