Monday, April 6, 2020

Monday - Cloudy. High: 70-74


Monday Night - Cloudy. Low: 58-62

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 78-82


Tuesday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 54-58

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 78-82

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Above average temperatures will dominate this forecast period. A warm front is 
expected to push north of Missouri today, allowing for winds to shift out of the south
and bring in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level clouds are expected to 
persist through today and most of tomorrow, finally diminishing tomorrow night after 
winds shift out of the southwest. This shift to the southwest will result in less moisture 
being pulled into the area, allowing for clouds to dissipate. Tuesday and Wednesday 
may feel a little muggy outside since temperatures and relative humidity are so high. 
There is a slight chance for some isolated thunderstorms to form Wednesday afternoon 
if all of the ingredients are in place, but as of right now, this does not look very likely.

Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: April 6, 2020

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The highlights for this forecast period includes unseasonably high temperatures and 
the possibility for surface-based convection. As prompted by the WPC, we used a 
general model blend for this forecast period, specifically using the 06Z NAM and GFS. 

Starting at 250mb, we are currently in the left exit region of the subtropical jet. This may
help support some convergence at the surface. We remain in this region until Tuesday 
morning when the jet max sets up right over Missouri. This jet is set up in accordance 
with an overall ridging pattern aloft. The axis of this ridge will be right overtop of Missouri 
as well Tuesday morning around 12Z. After that, things level out and become zonal for 
the rest of the forecast period. This setup is also reflected at both 500mb and 700mb. 
RH values are relatively low from 700mb up. Synoptically, this does not provide a lot of 
support for anything other than calm weather through our forecast period. That being said,
most of the weather affecting us the next several days will be surface based with little to no 
upper lever support. Around 850mb, we begin to see massive southerly flow which is going 
to advect warm moist air over the area as the LLJ sits right over us. This moisture will 
affect us in the form of cloud cover today and tomorrow. Tuesday, winds begin to shift
easterly and we begin to dry out leading to a sunnier day on Wednesday.

Due to forecasted high temperatures and moisture advection, surface based convection is 
possible Monday through Wednesday. However, with no evident forcing mechanisms the 
possibility of any convection breaking the cap is extremely low. Wednesday afternoon and 
evening seems to be the best chance for storms as a cold front is forecasted to move across 
Columbia from the northwest. Soundings right after FROPA indicate support for elevated 
convection, unlike the surface-based instability shown for today and tomorrow. Surface CAPE 
values prior to the cold front passage on Wednesday are forecasted to be around 3000J/kg, 
along with sufficient moisture. The sounding also shows lapse rates near 8 C°/km. All of these 
indicators suggest supported upper level convection; however, future forecasters should be 
made aware of this development as the timing and intensity are not well known at the time.

1 comment:

  1. Glad to see you're still forecasting even with school being on- li one. It's great to see you guys working so hard to keep people informed!!