Monday, April 27, 2020

Monday - Cloudy morning with rain. Sun comes out in the afternoon. 
High: 70-74

Monday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 54-58

Tuesday - Partly sunny in the morning, with clouds and storms later. 
High: 72-76

Tuesday Night - Cloudy with lingering thunderstorms and rain. Low: 48-52


Wednesday - Partly sunny and breezy. High: 60-64

 Thanks to for the icons!

The current rain affecting the area will likely stop by noon. This brief period of dry time 
and southwesterly winds will allow for sunshine to help warm us up to the low 70s. 
Tomorrow, we begin to see a low pressure system develop to our north. 
Tuesday morning and afternoon, we remain south of the warm front and expect 
temps to rise into the mid and upper 70s. The cold front associated with the low will 
move through the area Tuesday evening. We expect thunderstorms to form along 
and behind the front as it passes. These storms may produce strong winds and 
small hail. Northerly winds behind the cold front and clouds will keep us much 
cooler on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Clemons, Farr, Heaven
Issued:  10:00am: April 27, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
A general model blend was used for this forecast period as suggested by the WPC. 
A shortwave trough is beginning to embed into the Great Plains and provide activity 
for Mid-Missouri. Rain has been falling in Columbia this morning, picking up <0.15” 
of QPF. Winds are shifting out of the southwest which will allow for moisture advection 
to end very soon, which will dry us out and bring sunshine into the afternoon. The sun 
will make or break our high temperature today as the more we get, the higher the temp
 will end up being. As the shortwave trough amplifies, our attention turns to tomorrow 
as a vertically stacked cyclone is forecasted to push across the upper Mississippi Valley.

This low pressure system forms from the shortwave trough, closing itself off as it moves 
across the Dakotas. From the ground up, this cyclone shows signs of detaching itself
from the general flow across the CONUS. The LLJ shows prominent signs of a warm 
and cold front attached to this low that will ignite storms along its way. Winds shift out of 
the south by tomorrow morning, funnelling moisture back into the central CONUS south 
of the warm front. However, overcast skies will not form until closer to cold FROPA in the 
afternoon/evening, allowing for sunshine to help warm us up and keep the dew point 
temperature over 60 F. This will also make the high temperature tomorrow a little higher 
than today’s.

Soundings ahead of the cold front show ample instability with SREF mean values at 2283 
J/kg for MUCAPE, 1891 J/kg for MLCAPE, and 40 knots for EFFSHR. However, the most 
concerning part of the soundings was that there is no cap forecasted. These thunderstorms 
look to be non-supercellular, which makes the biggest threat to be straight-line winds and 
maybe some small hail if the updraft can grow large enough. However, a few tornadic 
spin-ups cannot be ruled out on the leading edge of the line. The time of focus for these 
thunderstorms is 21Z tomorrow to 00Z Wednesday, and future forecasters will need to 
monitor Tuesday very closely to see how apt it is for convection in the afternoon/evening.

This low pressure system is forecasted to move across the IA-MN border and continue to 
move towards the NE CONUS after all is said and done in Mid-Missouri. Winds will back 
behind the front as expected, allowing for CAA into the area. Temperatures will be much 
cooler on Wednesday thanks to northerly flow behind the low. As the cyclone deepens to 
our east, winds will pick up in the Midwest, with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Models are suggesting 
some lingering morning rain on the backside of this cyclone, but a deep dry layer exists at the 
surface and in the mid-levels which would make it very hard for any precip to make it to the 
ground. Flow from the cP air mass will dry us out on Wednesday and allow for some sun by 
the afternoon.

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