Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

Monday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66

 

 

Monday Night - Variable amounts of cloud cover. Low: 42-46

 

Tuesday - Periods of sun and clouds. High: 62-66

 

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 46-50

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 72-76

 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

With  rain departing mid-Missouri this morning, we are left with a positively pleasant forecast. Heading out the door this morning, there was definitely a fall chill in the air as a cold front pushed through the region yesterday. With northerly winds and partial cloud cover remaining from yesterday's system, today should be a cool but beautiful day with highs in the mid-60s. Tonight will be the coldest night this area has experienced since Spring, with lows in the mid-40s. Tuesday should be pretty close to a carbon copy of today, but as winds shift from northerly to southwesterly overnight Tuesday night, much warmer air will move into central Missouri. Clouds will largely clear out as well, leaving us with a warm and sunny Wednesday.

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 28 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The biggest concerns with this forecast will be cloud cover Monday through Tuesday night, and temperature changes between Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS was used as primary guidance for this forecast, supplemented by SREF plumes.

This morning, clouds and rain associated with the cold front that pushed through central Missouri yesterday have moved well off to our East. Behind this feature, an upper-level trough was digging into the central CONUS. Mid-level moisture was present near the front stretching from Louisiana into Ontario and across the upper-Midwest in the vicinity of the upper-level low. Low-level winds were out of the north/northwest. These winds were quite strong, too, with speeds AOA 40 kts at 850 hPa. At the surface, temperatures were cool, only in the 50s, with light northwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover.

As we progress through the day today and into tomorrow, the GFS guidance suggests that the upper-level trough will continue to dig down into the central CONUS. As it does this, there may be one or more small, fast-moving disturbances that push through our area. Each disturbance will likely bring some cloud cover with it, but, per GFS Skew-T's, it looks like the air near the surface is too dry to support even a sprinkle from this system. Overall, between now and Tuesday evening, there will be plenty of sunny time, but also plenty of cloudy time as well. Because these disturbances are moving so quickly, the cloudy periods will not last long; therefore, I have opted to use "periods of sun and clouds" or "variable amounts of cloud cover" to most accurately address the forecast sky conditions over the next 36 hours. By Tuesday night, it looks like much of our cloud cover will exit, and we will be left with mostly sunny skies by Wednesday.

As for temperatures, because periods of clouds are expected today along with winds backing from NW to SW with height, I only expect afternoon highs to reach the mid-60s. Because tonight will be the first night after a cold fropa, overnight lows will be in the mid-40s, some of the coldest we've experienced in months. Tomorrow looks almost exactly like today in terms of wind direction and cloud cover, so I expect afternoon highs tomorrow will be very similar to today's. Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds should shift to the SW, with some veering in the lowest 150 hPa of the atmosphere. This would be indicative of WAA, and with the clouds clearing out, I do expect a much warmer day on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-70s.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

         

Friday - Clear skies. High: 82-86 

 

 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

      

Saturday - Clear. High: 86-90

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

 

 

Sunday - Skies becoming cloudy by noon. Rain likely later in the afternoon. High: 76-80

 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

Continued pleasant weather today and Saturday with a more summer like feel outside. Abundant sunshine and clear skies will continue today through Saturday night as the Alabama Crimson Tide invade Faurot Field to take on the Tigers tomorrow evening at 6PM. High temperatures in the upper 80's will warrant hydration for those venturing out to attend the contest. Sunday will mark a return to normal fall conditions as clouds encroach on central Missouri by noon and precipitation chances increase through the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected by Sunday evening with temperatures falling back into the upper 70's Sunday afternoon.

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Bongard

Issued:  9:44 AM CDT 25 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will give way to zonal flow over the Central Plains with jet streaking over the northern Rockies and the Dakotas Friday according to GFS modeling. Persistence forecasting continues to be the rule of the day as the region will experience tranquil weather over the next 48 hours. This is in response to a slow moving high pressure center over north central Texas that will develop and slowly trek into the ArkLaTex area through Saturday. Southwesterly flow on the northern flank of the high will advect slightly warmer air into central Missouri from west Texas and the Panhandles. Moisture will be hard to come by before 12Z Sunday as model soundings indicate a very stable atmosphere over the region as expected given the setup of high pressure over the Plains. 

A slight chance for fog both Saturday and Sunday morning exists though chances would be significantly greater save both the presence of stronger than normal wind conditions given the time of day. Both 12Z soundings from Saturday and Sunday promote southerly 10-12 knot flow over the region discouraging the chance for fog even though a very shallow radiation inversion exists both mornings. 

The high pressure center propagates east to our south this weekend and the western flank opens up the region to southerly flow and Gulf moisture. The region will experience a brief return to summer as temperatures climb into the upper 80's Saturday afternoon with slightly muggier conditions than what current observations are showing. 

The forecast question for this period will be when on Sunday the region experiences its first significant chance at rainfall for the first time in awhile. Model agreement depicts a long wave trough that begins to amplify across the northern Plains and Great Lakes Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A shortwave riding the flow will drag a finite region of vorticity into the Midwest by 15Z Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a long from northeastern Iowa down into central Kansas and begin to trek toward the forecast area. Clouds will be on the increase through Sunday with the potential for moderate rainfall late Sunday afternoon and evening as the forecast period comes to a close. Model soundings are presenting modest CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg and BRN's in the 50's prompting the SPC to place west central Missouri in a Marginal risk area for strong to severe thunderstorms with the highest risk being hail at this time. Increasing clouds and increasing precipitation chances will lead to more seasonal high temperatures Sunday.

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 54-58 

 

 

Friday - Clear. High: 80-84

 

 

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 60-64

 

 

Saturday - Clear. High: 86-90

 

 

Sunday - Skies becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon. High: 74-78

 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

Calm and clear weather will continue to end off our work week and into the weekend. The Tigers' home opener against Alabama will likely be played underneath clear skies in more summer-like temperatures. High pressure will dominate the region giving us this warmer than average weather for the start of fall. This won't stick around for long though as we are already looking at the approach of our next low-pressure system into Sunday afternoon. With it will come much more fall-like temps and the potential for showers.

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Nixon, Cochran, Travis

Issued:  6:30 PM CDT 24 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Much the same to talk about in terms of flow regime. Another persistence governed forecast will see mainly sunny skies for the start of our weekend with the main focus on a system moving in by Sunday afternoon. The 12z GFS was used alongside the SREF and GEFS ensemble plumes. SREF had a poor handle on FROPA timing Sunday afternoon, so disregarded it for Sunday temps.

High pressure has set up over the Midwest. As the shortwave seen at 250 hPa and 500 hPa associated with the now extra-tropical remnants of Beta continue to move off to the north and east, high pressure has already begun to set up behind it. GFS 500-hPa height and vorticity depicts ridging behind the exiting shortwave that will flatten to purely zonal flow over the central CONUS for much of the forecast period. GFS MSLP maps show two distinct high-pressure systems to the east of Missouri over the Ohio River Valley and one to the south over the Lower Mississippi Valley. These two anticyclones will work together to bring southwesterly to southerly winds for the next several days. With those winds will come unseasonably warmer air. Winds at 850 hPa from a more southwesterly direction will advect air originating from a much drier air mass. This will keep our skies clear and temps on the increase until the arrival of our next system on Sunday. Clear skies will also help radiational cooling drop overnight lows to be substantially lower than afternoon highs. 

A drastic shift in the flow regime Saturday night into Sunday morning will bring with it active weather. GFS 250-hPa heights and winds show zonal flow over the central CONUS breaking down as an amplified LW digs into the Midwest from Canada. The disturbance shows up will on 500-hPa height and vorticity with strong circulation disrupting the quiet pattern we will have been seeing for a few days at that point. GFS 700-hPa height and RH shows a wide band of mid-level saturation moving across the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Both plan-view MSLP maps with wind and soundings point to FROPA occurring between 15z and 18z on Sunday. Behind the front, northwesterly winds and CAA will bring in temperatures much closer to normal for this time of the year. GFS soundings show near complete saturation of the column as well beginning after 15z Sunday. Likely will just see steady rain from this system into Sunday evening, though a max of 451 J/Kg of CAPE suggests the possibility of some isolated convection embedded in a wider area of stratiform precip. Will defer to later shifts to see if the trend of instability continues in subsequent model runs.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Thursday- Sunny. High: 76-80

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 56-60

 

Friday - Clear skies and Sunshine. High: 82-86

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 58-62

Saturday - Sunny High: 84-88

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

The end of the week will trend warmer with the weekend becoming unseasonably warm. Daytime temperatures are in the mid 80s with overnight lows getting down to the 60s. This weekend will have plenty of sunshine and mild winds for the football game. Summer will be rearing its head this weekend with more fall-like temperatures arriving by the end of the weekend.

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Ede, Sumrall

Issued:  9:00 AM CDT 24 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 This forecast period features a calm weather pattern into the weekend. The 06z GFS was used as well as SREF plumes for temperatures. This calm and unseasonably warm period will linger through Saturday. 

The upper level trough continues to push off to the east, clearing skies as it goes. A ridge will move in, in its wake. This ridge paired with southwesterly flow will aid in warm air advection Friday which will allow temperatures to climb into the 80's and remain in the mid to upper 80's through Saturday.

Saturday night a shortwave upper level trough will move into the area. This cold front will knock temperatures back to more fall like conditions for the end of the weekend.

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

Wednesday Night - Becoming clear. Low: 52-56

Thursday - Clear skies. High: 76-80

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 56-60

Friday - Clear. High: 82-86

Saturday - Clear skies. High: 86-90

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

The fall equinox may have been yesterday, but it sure won't feel like fall for the latter half of this week and into our weekend. As the remnants of Beta move off to the south and east of Columbia, a high-pressure system will set up in its place bringing in warmer air from the south and west. This will keep our skies clear and our temperatures well above average. Drier air from the southwest will keep our skies clear. Would not be surprised to see some more hazy conditions from the wildfires out west. Regardless, it should be a beautiful start to the weekend (especially for summer lovers)!

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Clemons, Travis

Issued:  5:00 PM CDT 23 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 Not much in the way of active weather is anticipated for this forecast period. The main focus for this period is the unseasonably warm temperatures that will kick off the weekend. Went primarily with the 12z GFS with emphasis on SREF Plumes for narrowing down the temperatures. Good consensus between GFS and SREF  and a quiet forecast governed by persistence yield above average confidence. 

Looking at the large scale flow at 250 hPa for the NH, the post-tropical remnants of Teddy being absorbed into a LW trough sitting of the east coast of New England and Newfoundland will keep steering the remnants of Beta well to the south of mid-Missouri. Save for the upper-level cloudiness over the region seen on GOES VIS imagery tropical moisture will stay to the south according to GFS 700-hPa relative humidity. As Wednesday progresses into the evening, Beta's remnants will pick up speed and move off to the south and east taking the upper-level cloudiness with it. GOES VIS shows a steady decrease in cloud cover over Missouri since sunrise Wednesday morning. As skies clear Wednesday night, winds will continue to stay relatively calm and allow for decent radiational cooling. Resulting overnight temperatures will dip cooler than they have been the past couple days with lows potentially bottoming out in the lower 50s.

 

Behind Beta, GFS 500-hPa depict high pressure setting up over the Lower Mississippi Valley putting Missouri in southwestern flow at 850 hPa to the SFC. This will allow for the advection of warm, dry air from the west to filter into the Midwest. GFS plots of 250-hPa heights and winds indicate zonal flow persisting into the weekend. A zonal flow regime in the upper levels, reflected by a surface anticyclone to the south of the region will mean an extended period of quiet and unseasonably warm weather for the first several days of fall. By Saturday night into Sunday the GFS hints at a disturbance at 500 hPa propagating northeast from Mexico/Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a LW trough wants to dig into the Upper Midwest. Future shifts should pay close attention to how these two systems will impact the start of next week.

Current Conditions at Sanborn FieldMO Ag Experiment Station - Sanborn Field - Columbia, Missouri Weather

 

 

 

 

Wednesday- Scattered showers in the AM, clouds clearing by late afternoon. High: 72-76

 

 

Wednesday Night- Becoming mostly clear. Low: 52-56

 

Thursday- Sunny. High: 76-80

 

Thursday Night- Clear and warmer. Low: 56-60

          

 

Friday- Sunny and warm. High: 82-86

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion:

Today, scattered showers are possible in the morning, and by the afternoon clouds will start to clear. Clouds will continue to clear overnight Wednesday and Thursday will have clear skies and warmer temperatures. Summer is not quite done with us yet as a warming trend will continue into the weekend.

===============================================================================

 

Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9:30AM CDT 23 September 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 This forecast was generated from the 06Z GFS.The focus of this forecast will be the remnants from Tropical Storm Beta 

and the warming trend that will follow.

 

At the 250 mb level we see a positively tilted trough moving through the region, indicating that there is a weak upper level disturbance, likely due to TS Beta. A jet streak over southern Missouri coincides with increased vorticity level shown at the 500mb level. This paired with higher RH values indicates the southern portion of Missouri will likely experience scattered showers thanks to Beta. Some of those showers could extend further north into the Columbia area, but will be brief and short-lived. Low-level clouds will be present through Wednesday morning as there is ample moisture being funneled up from the Gulf Coast by a southwesterly wind. These cloud will begin to diminish as we move into the afternoon and evening hours.

 

                             The clearing will continue through the overnight hours, as the trough moves off to the east. Warmer temperatures and       clear skies will be the theme for the rest of the forecast period. This is due to a ridge that will be building in the wake of the trough. More summer like conditions will be present through thr end of the week with ample sunshine and temperatures warming into the mid 80's.