Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36

Thursday - Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 56-60

Thursday Night - Becoming clear. Low: 28-32

Friday - Becoming partly cloudy by evening. High: 46-50

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain beginning overnight, tapering off by noon. 58-62

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Mid-Missouri will see a very autumn-like temperature pattern for the remainder of the week with temperatures "pogo sticking" between highs and lows. A couple cold fronts will help drive this rollercoaster of temperatures. High pressure sitting atop Missouri will begin its eastward march towards the eastern seaboard. A cold front will blow through Thursday night, knocking temperatures down well below freezing. Little moisture available will mean Columbia may see some brief overnight cloudiness, but should stay dry. Behind the front, another high-pressure system and much cooler temperatures set up over the region. High pressure and calm weather remain until early Saturday morning when clouds and showers infiltrate the area ahead of the next cold front. 

 

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Travis

Issued: 5 PM CST 11 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main focus of this forecast period is the rollercoaster of temperatures normal for mid to late autumn. The forecast period should remain dry save for precip chances near the end on Saturday. Good consensus between the GFS and NAM meant that a blend of the two was used for this forecast. consulted SREF and GEFS ensemble plumes for temperatures, and to narrow down timing of precip at the end.

GFS plot of 250-hPa height and wind shows a longwave trough to the west deamplifying as it propagates to the northeast. The result will be flow turning more zonal by Thursday afternoon and remaining so until the approach of the next storm system early Saturday morning. GFS prognostics place a strong 160+ knot jet streak right over Missouri and keeps it there for the duration of the period. This southward track of the polar jet stream will allow colder air masses to infiltrate the Middle Mississippi Valley. More evident on GFS prognostics of 500-hPa height and absolute vorticity is the aforementioned northeastward propagating wave. As the wave flattens, a shortwave centered over the Upper Midwest clips the northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. Plots of 700-hPa RH and vertical velocity shows plenty of UVM, but a scarce supply of moisture. Model soundings support this lack of moisture throughout the rest of the column. Nevertheless, enough moisture could filter in at the middle to lower levels of the atmosphere to support brief cloud cover Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The upper-level disturbance will be reflected at the surface by a cold front wedged between two high-pressure systems. The first being the anticyclone that the GFS currently has sitting just to the east of Columbia. This high-pressure system will move with the storm track and move ENE as the cold front moves in Thursday evening. As this systems moves eastward, Missouri will remain in low-level southerly flow allowing for a warmer Thursday than Wednesday. Building in quickly behind that front is the second anticyclone. This second system will keep low-level winds northerly resulting in much cooler high temperatures for Friday. 

By Friday evening, GFS 250-hPa and 500-hPa maps the large scale flow regime loses its zonal characteristics transitioning to meriodional. A wave will come off the Rockies By Friday afternoon. GFS plots of 250-hPa wind and divergence shows increased divergence in the entrance region of the jet streak mentioned above. This is well seen at 500 hPa with increased circulation propagating out of the SW long the storm track. Unlike Thursday's system, GFS shows no shortage of moisture with this disturbance. Plots of 700-hPa RH and vertical velocity shows large scale saturation collocated with the vorticity maxima at 500 hPa. At this point in the forecast period, consensus between the GFS and NAM begins to break down. The soundings from the GFS are quicker to saturate the column than those from the NAM. GFS soundings indicate precip beginning 03z and 06z Saturday while the NAM holds it off until after 09z. The NAM is also quicker to get the precip out of the region with the column losing deep moisture 15z on Saturday. The GFS keeps deep, precip-supporting, saturation closer to 18z. A look at ensemble guidance from the GEFS and SREF would suggest a blend of the GFS and NAM solutions with precip beginning closer 03z Saturday and ending closer to 18z. Regardless of timing, both models output K indices in the low 30s, so expect efficient, steady precip. Temperatures should stay well above freezing. As such, frozen precip is anticipated. 

Future shifts will need to watch the changes between model runs and how this will affect the timing of the rain. Forecasters should also play close attention to discrepancies between the models regarding duration of the rain as this will have a big effect on QPF totals. 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 

 

Thursday - Sunny, with clouds moving in early evening. High: 58-62

 

Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32

Friday - Mostly to partly sunny. High: 46-50

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

We will return to sunny conditions today, as the cold front from yesterday has finished passing through our area. Winds from the northwest are bringing in cooler air today, but tomorrow will be warmer as winds return to the southwest. Be prepared for temperatures to drop below freezing Thursday night with the passage of another cold front. This front will be weaker and drier than the last, bringing clouds with it but no rain.

 

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued: 9 AM CST 11 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06Z GFS model, supplemented with SREF and GEFS plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the high pressure system moving to our east tomorrow and a shortwave trough moving a cold front through Thursday night.

The cold front from yesterday has finished moving through our area, causing winds to shift to the west and northwest today. This will advect dry, cold air into our region, causing temperatures to be cooler than they were early in the week. Clear skies tonight will allow for radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the mid 30s.

We are currently under the influence of an anticyclone that will move to our east tomorrow, allowing winds to shift back to the southwest. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Thursday due to warm air advection. However, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through Thursday night, bringing another cold front with it. This front will bring enough moisture and negative omega with it to form clouds Thursday night, but soundings indicate that the surface will be too dry for any precipitation to fall. Significant circulations associated with the shortwave will stay just north of Missouri. 

Friday's high temperature will be the lowest of the week, as winds shift back to the northwest after the frontal passage, bringing in more cold air. Again, high pressure to our east will cause winds to shift back to the southwest. This will aid with moisture advection, forming clouds ahead of the next system that will impact us on Saturday.

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 30-34

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 

Thursday - Mostly to partly sunny. High: 60-64 

Friday - Mostly to partly sunny. High: 46-50

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

A cold front moved through Columbia around lunchtime today, bringing some strong storms and cooler temperatures. Tonight, gusty northwesterly winds will cause temperatures to continue to drop, potentially below freezing. Temperatures will be more seasonal tomorrow with clear skies into the night. Thursday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with a southerly wind as more clouds trickle in ahead of a drier and weaker cold front. This front is expected to bring even cooler temperatures for Friday and no precipitation at this time.

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued: 4 PM CST 10 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from a general model blend, guided by the 18Z SREF, NAM and GFS. The main focus for this forecast period is the cold FROPA that occurred near 18Z in Columbia today and its expected impacts throughout the rest of the week.

At the time of writing, the "bowed" storm system has moved out of Mid-MO and skies are beginning to clear. Above, this cold front was associated with moisture, vorticity, and was along a prominent jet streak creating meridional flow across the Ohio River Valley. Behind this jet streak exists very zonal flow that is expected to keep weather conditions calm for the forecast period. CAA over the area, along with consultation from the SREF, leads us to believe that temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler than originally forecast. A dry anticyclone will set up shop to our west tomorrow, helping usher in northerly winds that will keep temperatures seasonal and skies clear. As this high pressure system moves to our east, winds will shift out of the south and WAA will begin over Mid-MO on Thursday. Temperatures and clouds will increase through the day on Thursday due to a shortwave out ahead of another cold front expected to impact us around 06Z on Friday. There is model continuity that moisture will stay above 700mb to provide cloud cover--but not rain--to end the week. However, temperatures will decrease yet again behind cold FROPA Thursday night.

Future forecasters should pay attention to cloud cover, the strength of Friday's cold front, and the anticyclone expected to move across the central CONUS this week. Currently, no precipitation is likely with this cold front, but it would be worth monitoring as we inch closer to the weekend. The anticyclone and shortwave could help advect moisture into the Midwest on Thursday, but the SE U.S. could be moisture-starved from Tropical Storm Eta. 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, passing through around midday. Becoming mostly sunny by late afternoon. Temperatures falling into in mid-50s by late afternoon. High: 70-74

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

 

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 60-64

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Today, showers and thunderstorms quickly pass through central Missouri along with a sharp cold front. Severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the passage of the cold front, skies clear and temperatures will drop rapidly, finally bottoming out in the low-30s by early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a pleasant, albeit cooler day across mid-Missouri, with afternoon highs near average. Wednesday night will be clear and cold again with lows in the low- to mid-30s. By Thursday, high pressure will take hold to our southeast, allowing warmer air to be transported into the area.

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued: 10 AM CST 10 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was created using guidance from the 12z NAM and SREF Plumes. The main focus for the forecast period is the cold FROPA and associated strong to severe thunderstorms that pass through the area during the day today.

Central Missouri has been warmer this past week, but this is expected to change with the cold FROPA this afternoon. The primary concern with any storm is high winds. An upper level trough has been slowly pushing eastward over the central CONUS from the northeastern Central Plains driving our weather pattern. Ahead of a nearing cold front, storms are developing over western Missouri backed by a sufficient amount of moisture beneath 500mb along with a southwesterly wind assisting the amount of available moisture. MUCAPE values range from 700-1000 J/kg during midday with minimal instability and high winds. Forecasted LI is -4°C adding to more confidence in the development of strong storms.

Late this afternoon this storm system pushes east out of central Missouri. Winds begin to back west to northwesterly influencing a drop in temperatures through Tuesday night bring our temperatures to low-30s. High pressure begins to take hold of our area Wednesday, keeping us dry throughout the remaining forecast period. Wednesday's highs look to be in the mid-50s with sunny conditions. Overnight temperatures Wednesday drop down into the low-30s as skies remain clear. On Thursday, winds begin to shift southwesterly allowing for a slightly warmer day, with sunny skies persisting.

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 62-66

Tuesday - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms from late morning to early afternoon. Then, becoming mostly sunny with temperatures falling during the afternoon. High: 70-74

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

 

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Today was the last unseasonably warm day for the foreseeable future before a cold front comes through midday tomorrow bringing colder temperatures and some showers and thunderstorms to Mid-MO. The big factors of these storms will be possible heavy downpours and strong wind gusts, but these are not expected to meet severe criteria. The timing will be from about 9am to 2pm tomorrow with rainfall totals up to 0.5". We will still feel the effects of the cold front for the rest of the week with low temperatures tomorrow night forecast to be around 30 degrees cooler than tonight's low. The rest of the forecast period looks to be sunny and seasonal with temperatures in the 50s.

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued: 5 PM CST 9 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from a general model blend, using guidance from the 18Z RAP, SREF, NAM and GFS. The main focus for the forecast period is the cold FROPA expected midday tomorrow and its rainfall and temperature impacts.

Mid-MO has been in a warm and calm weather pattern for the last week, but this is expected to change tomorrow. A quasi-stationary ridge that has made its home over the central CONUS this past week will be pushed eastward by a slow-moving trough. A vertically-stacked cyclone is stationed over the eastern Rockies at the time of writing, and it is loaded with vorticity maxima and several isobars that extend far from its center. At the surface, a cold front stretches from its north and south with a sufficient amount of moisture and lift. As for instability, this will be difficult to come by in Mid-MO. Forecast MUCAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg for midday tomorrow, with EFFSHR nearing 50 kts. Instability in November is already not very common, and due to the fact that no diurnal variations are expected to bring extra energy and these storms are likely to pass before the peak of atmospheric instability in the afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not likely. Moisture and lift do not exist above ~600mb, so these storms will not have a lot of room to grow, as well. The biggest impact looks to be gusty winds along the line of storm due to a 50-kt LLJ expected to move into Mid-MO and CAA to help push these winds closer to the surface. 

The line of storms will have a fairly small width (west to east), but due to it's slow movement already, we could see heavy downpours at times. Otherwise, the cold front will move out of Columbia by 21Z or so, as skies will gradually clear. The first mostly clear night after cold FROPA is expected to be the coolest of the week. Wednesday morning low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s, which is average for this time of year. A trough with more zonal flow is expected to settle over the central CONUS through Wednesday and Thursday, funneling in more seasonal weather for mid-November in Missouri.

Future forecasters should pay attention to any sunshine we see tomorrow morning or if low-level clouds inhibit radiation. This could allow for more energy to provide convection during tomorrow's storms.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Partly cloudy. High: 72-76  

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 62-66

Tuesday - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until early afternoon then becoming mostly sunny. Temperatures falling during the afternoon. High: 70-74

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Today, warm weather continues as mid-Missouri remains underneath a ridge of high pressure, with high temperatures this afternoon approaching the record of 78. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, resulting in overnight lows only dropping into the low- to mid-60s. Moving into Tuesday, rain and thunderstorms  can be expected during the middle of the day as a cold front pushes through. After the front passes, skies will rapid clear and temperatures will begin to fall, bottoming out in the mid-30s by early Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, pleasant, albeit cooler weather can be expected, with afternoon highs in the mid-50s.

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CST 9 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The primary concern early this week is the timing of a strong cold frontal passage and precipitation associated with it. For this forecast, the GFS was used for guidance as it resolves the longwave trough currently in the western CONUS reasonably well.

As mentioned earlier, a deep longwave trough is currently located over the western CONUS. Curving around the base of this deep trough are a couple of >110-kt 250-hPa jet streaks. Additionally, several vorticity maxima were noted within the trough. An upper-level ridge was located over the eastern CONUS, so Missouri falls right between these two features, setting up southwesterly flow at the upper levels at the time of writing. In the lower levels, the flow was more southerly over mid-Missouri, helping to draw in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a strong cold front stretched from Lake Superior into southern New Mexico, with a surface high centered over the northern Appalachian Mountains.

Looking ahead to the forecast period, the GFS shows the upper-level longwave trough remaining to our west during the day today. GFS Skew-T's also show veering with height in the lower levels of the atmosphere this morning, transitioning to southwesterly flow throughout the column this afternoon. The Skew-T's also show some moisture below 850 hPa, suggesting that low clouds will be with us throughout much of the day. All told, today will be another very warm day, with highs near yesterday's high of 76. It is, however, conceivable that Columbia meets or perhaps exceeds the record high of 78 if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

By tonight, the upper-level longwave trough will begin to move east. Along with this, a 250-hPa jet streak should develop and move over the region by Wednesday morning. The GFS shows quite a bit of upper-level divergence associated with this feature. PVA at 500 hPa is also being advertised by the GFS. Additionally, the GFS shows a 50-kt 850-hPa LLJ developing over mid-Missouri during the morning hours on Wednesday. All told, this system has very impressive dynamics. Where this system lacks, however, is moisture. Because of Tropical Storm Eta, a lot of the low-level moisture over the Gulf is being used to fuel that storm, so there is less moisture for this system to draw in. Therefore, low-level moisture will be somewhat difficult to come by. In addition, with it being November, instability is hard to come by anyway. Moreover, the GFS is generated values for CAPE lower than 500 J/kg. Also, with the expected timing of storms being around lunchtime, they will not be striking at peak atmospheric instability. Therefore, while this system has many dynamic factors that could support severe thunderstorms, lack of moisture and instability will temper greatly any chance of severe thunderstorms.

After storms pass Tuesday, the cold front will pass, too, resulting in rapidly clearing skies and dropping temperatures by mid-afternoon. The longwave trough will move in and stay from Tuesday night through the remainder of the forecast period. This will result in much more fall-like temperatures than what we have seen this past week, with clear skies prevailing.

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 50-54

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 70-74

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 54-58

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 70-74

Monday - Partly cloudy. High: 72-76 

 

==================================================== 

 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 

Comfortable weather will continue here in mid-Missouri for the next couple of days due to a high pressure system over the eastern United States. Clockwise flow around the pressure system will keep winds out of the south going into the weekend. Friday's clear skies will continue overnight with temperatures in the low 50s. The high pressure to the east will park itself there for the remainder of the weekend keeping skies clear and temperatures above average into Saturday and Saturday night. Persistent winds from the south will bring added moisture from the Gulf which will lead to increasing clouds on Sunday. These clouds will stick around into Monday.

===========================================================================

 

Forecaster: Orr, Travis, Vochatzer

Issued:  5:30 PM CST 6 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Over this forecasting period, our region continues to see unseasonably warm temperatures and clear skies due to ridging to the east and a southerly winds. Due to good model consensus, this forecast was assembled using the 12z GFS, the 12z NAM, GEFS/SREF plumes, governed by persistence forecasting. 

The 12z GFS 250-mb plot of upper level winds and heights indicates the presence of ridging in the west over Kansas. This ridging moves into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday and through Saturday. An upper-level, cut-off low over Louisiana, in combination with this ridge, blocks Gulf moisture from reaching Missouri, preventing the formation of any clouds or precipitation throughout the weekend. Beginning on Saturday at 18z, GFS 500-mb maps of heights and vorticity show circulation propagating into our area from the southern low. That being said, nothing will come of it due to little moisture in the atmosphere. The low begins to break down by 12z on Sunday, allowing the formation of clouds throughout Sunday and into Monday. 

GFS 700-mb plots of heights and relative humidity suggest that significant amounts of moisture will not reach our area until late Sunday night and into early Monday morning. This makes sense given that the moisture had been blocked by the Louisiana low, which will no longer be an issue by this time. Partly cloudy skies will persist from Sunday into Monday due to the increase in moisture at this level. The reason for Missouri's unseasonably warm temperatures becomes very apparent when looking at GFS 850-mb height and winds. Southerly to southwesterly flow persists throughout the entire forecasting period, keeping the temperatures warm. After the upper-level low begins to break down, winds at 850 mb will shift from southwesterly to more southerly with an origin from the Gulf.

The pattern described in the upper levels translates well to the surface level, with a high pressure system to the east of Missouri. Tropical storm Eta will remain to the south of Cuba until the end of the weekend. That system, working alongside the high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states keeps low-level/surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico westerly and zonal. As mentioned above, this will keep moisture locked up over the Gulf. As Eta gets closer to Florida, the zonal flow breaks down and moisture is able to reach Missouri. 

Monday's shift should watch a longwave trough digging into the western CONUS by Monday which will result in an active storm track next week.