Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Increasing clouds. Low: 62-66

Tuesday - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms from late morning to early afternoon. Then, becoming mostly sunny with temperatures falling during the afternoon. High: 70-74

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

 

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

 

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Discussion: 

Today was the last unseasonably warm day for the foreseeable future before a cold front comes through midday tomorrow bringing colder temperatures and some showers and thunderstorms to Mid-MO. The big factors of these storms will be possible heavy downpours and strong wind gusts, but these are not expected to meet severe criteria. The timing will be from about 9am to 2pm tomorrow with rainfall totals up to 0.5". We will still feel the effects of the cold front for the rest of the week with low temperatures tomorrow night forecast to be around 30 degrees cooler than tonight's low. The rest of the forecast period looks to be sunny and seasonal with temperatures in the 50s.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued: 5 PM CST 9 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from a general model blend, using guidance from the 18Z RAP, SREF, NAM and GFS. The main focus for the forecast period is the cold FROPA expected midday tomorrow and its rainfall and temperature impacts.

Mid-MO has been in a warm and calm weather pattern for the last week, but this is expected to change tomorrow. A quasi-stationary ridge that has made its home over the central CONUS this past week will be pushed eastward by a slow-moving trough. A vertically-stacked cyclone is stationed over the eastern Rockies at the time of writing, and it is loaded with vorticity maxima and several isobars that extend far from its center. At the surface, a cold front stretches from its north and south with a sufficient amount of moisture and lift. As for instability, this will be difficult to come by in Mid-MO. Forecast MUCAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg for midday tomorrow, with EFFSHR nearing 50 kts. Instability in November is already not very common, and due to the fact that no diurnal variations are expected to bring extra energy and these storms are likely to pass before the peak of atmospheric instability in the afternoon, strong thunderstorms are not likely. Moisture and lift do not exist above ~600mb, so these storms will not have a lot of room to grow, as well. The biggest impact looks to be gusty winds along the line of storm due to a 50-kt LLJ expected to move into Mid-MO and CAA to help push these winds closer to the surface. 

The line of storms will have a fairly small width (west to east), but due to it's slow movement already, we could see heavy downpours at times. Otherwise, the cold front will move out of Columbia by 21Z or so, as skies will gradually clear. The first mostly clear night after cold FROPA is expected to be the coolest of the week. Wednesday morning low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s, which is average for this time of year. A trough with more zonal flow is expected to settle over the central CONUS through Wednesday and Thursday, funneling in more seasonal weather for mid-November in Missouri.

Future forecasters should pay attention to any sunshine we see tomorrow morning or if low-level clouds inhibit radiation. This could allow for more energy to provide convection during tomorrow's storms.