Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday - Clouds in the afternoon. High: 56-60

Thursday Night - Becoming clear. Low: 26-32

 

 

Friday - Clouds increasing throughout the afternoon. High: 44-48

 

 

 

Friday Night - Cloudy early in the evening with rain beginning after midnight. Low: 36-40

 

Saturday - Rain ending before noon with clouds afternoon. High: 56-60

 

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Discussion: 

Autumn will be in full swing for the latter part of the week and this weekend. Sunshine will start both Thursday and Friday with clouds building throughout the afternoons of both days. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal for both Thursday and Friday, although Friday will be the colder of the two days due to the passage of a mild cold front in the early morning. Friday night into Saturday morning will bring cold showers for much of the region as another cold front passes through. Rain will start sometime after midnight Saturday morning and will end around noon Saturday as the low pressure passes through Missouri. This active pattern of warm fronts and cold fronts will be followed by a strong cold front moving through the area Saturday evening.

 

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Forecaster: Sumrall, Ede, Gasch

Issued: 10 AM CST 12 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Again we are focusing on the rapid changes due to impact central Missouri in the coming days.  Increased moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to the growing cloud cover throughout Friday.  Upward motion will be provided by the presence of a jet streak located above the central United States.  The jet stream's location is also largely responsible for the temperature swings we will see over the next few days.  The pattern in the upper atmosphere is largely zonal which contributes to the rapid changes in weather this week.  

The GFS 250 mb plot shows a longwave trough which will dig south overnight Thursday before lifting north of the area again on Friday.  It is worthwhile to note the presence of a strong jet streak with winds in excess of 160 knots.  The jet's location can be found using both the 250 mb plot as well as cross section analysis.  This jet remains over the area for most of the forecast period before moving out of the area to the northeast by Saturday evening.  The increased levels of moisture seen on both the 750 and 800 mb RH plots will translate into clouds during the day and precipitation overnight Friday due to the vertical motion generated by a shortwave system.

On Friday, the Polar Jet will lift just north of the area bringing warmer air to Central Missouri.  Though the jet will move to the north, conditions will be much of the same on Friday.  Tropical moisture will provide enough water to build clouds throughout the day with the potential of rain late Friday night.  Though there is less agreement between models in the SREF ensemble, it will be warmer on Friday than on Thursday.  The models again develop more consensus on the temperature on Saturday.  

While it will be raining early Saturday morning, conditions will dry out as the jet stream moves further north.  However, clouds will remain due to the excess of moisture in the atmosphere.  Saturday afternoon will experience surface winds out of the south which will contribute to the warm temperatures, but winds aloft will remain largely zonal with winds out of the West or WSW.  

 Saturday night, we can expect a cold front to move into the area.  The cold front will bring with it the chance of showers as well as colder temps behind it.  Timing and strength of the cold front will be monitored in future forecasts.