Friday, November 6, 2020

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 

 

Friday - Clear skies. High: 70-74
            

Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 50-54

 
 
 Saturday - Mostly Sunny. High: 70-74

Saturday Night -
  Clear skies. Low: 54-58

Sunday -
Clear morning, becoming partly cloudy in afternoon. High: 68-72
 
 
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Discussion: 
The unseasonably warm weather continues into the weekend thanks to the large ridge over the majority of the country. Fair weather will accompany the warm temperatures during the daylight hours today and this weekend with light jacket weather in the evenings and overnight. No rain is expected through this forecast period at this time. The areas next best shot at precipitation will be next week with the ridge finally moves on and conditions change here in mid-Missouri.

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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard
Issued:  10 AM CST 6 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
 
 Using the predicted minimum temperature for this morning versus the observed minimum temperature, GFS was just to use for this forecast. SREF and GEFS plumes were used for a consensus of model outputs.
 
The 12Z 250-mb chart of isotachs and geopotential height indicate a meridional flow with the main jet stream flow being located in southern Canada, placing much of the CONUS south of the ridge whose axis lies in the area above Lake Winnipeg. Missouri, along with most of the Midwest, is experiencing northeasterly flow at this level indicating a cutoff low-pressure system centered to our south near the Gulf of Mexico. As time progresses, the cutoff low will decay due to a deep trough upstream trekking into Texas from the Desert Southwest resulting in divergence over the low. We then remain under the ridge for the remainder of the weekend. Sunday afternoon at 21Z this deep trough will be settling into the southern CONUS and moving into the Midwest by early next week.

Currently the 500-mb Absolute Vorticity and height chart is showing circulation associated with the cutoff low extending into the southernmost areas of Missouri. This cutoff low will continue to advect vorticity into the region through the entire weekend, but it will not be enough to have any major influences on the overall weather at the surface.

Looking at the low-level relative humidity charts, the atmosphere stays dry until Saturday afternoon when moisture is advected from the south resulting in some low-level clouds. We keep the low-level moisture enough for cloud development through Sunday afternoon.

This weekend will stay unseasonably warm with southerly winds in place through the forecast period. The overall lack of moisture in the atmosphere decreases the chances for the region to see any precipitation. Going into next week the deep trough that will be located over the western CONUS will be need to be watched for future forecasts.


 

 

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