Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Sunny skies. High: 62-66

 

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 44-48

 

Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72

 

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Discussion:  

Today's temperatures will warm up to the mid-50s supplemented by sunshine and little cloud cover as an area of high pressure develops over the Midwest. 

Heading into tonight, temperatures will drop into the upper-30s. On Wednesday, temperatures will 

climb into the mid- to upper-60s as the flow shifts to southwesterly. Wednesday night will see clear 

skies with lows in the mid-40s. Thursday's temperatures will increase to reach highs in the lower-70s, 

far above average temperatures for the month of November.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued: 10 AM CST 17 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

This forecast was generated by a general model blend of the 12Z NAM & 06Z GFS, supplemented by the SREF Plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the increasing temperatures as the week progresses.

Currently, an upper-level ridge is in place over the western CONUS, with an upper-level trough located over New England. Both of these features are moving to the east at the time of this writing. Little to no moisture was present in the atmospheric column over mid-Missouri, leading to cloudless skies over the past 12 hours. At the surface, a cold front had just passed through our region, leading to cooler temperatures in the upper-30s this morning, but a surface high, presently located over Iowa, was rapidly building into the region. The flow at the surface is currently out of the northwest, and this flow will persist throughout the day today, resulting in temperatures lower than we have experienced in the past few days with Tuesday's highs reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight Tuesday night, winds began to shift to the west, with temperatures falling into the upper-30s. On Wednesday, the majority of the Midwest sits below an upper-level ridge which continues to keep us dry with warm temperatures in the mid-60s and clear skies expected. Winds will continue to gradually shift throughout the day Wednesday, with southwesterly winds expected by afternoon. This will aid in ushering in warmer air throughout the rest of the week. By Thursday morning, winds will begin to increase as we sit between an upper-level ridge to our east and a upper-level trough to our west. The steep pressure gradient between both pressure systems increases our winds as the low-pressure system located over Kansas pushes eastward. We remain dry throughout Thursday with a few upper-level clouds visible. Temperatures will reach well-above average temperatures increasing to the lower-70s.

The next area of concern is the upper-level low that begins to deepen over northern Kansas. This system is forecasted by the NAM and GFS to bring with it precipitation and colder temperatures after the passage of the initial cold front.