Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, passing through around midday. Becoming mostly sunny by late afternoon. Temperatures falling into in mid-50s by late afternoon. High: 70-74

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

 

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 60-64

 

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Discussion: 

Today, showers and thunderstorms quickly pass through central Missouri along with a sharp cold front. Severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the passage of the cold front, skies clear and temperatures will drop rapidly, finally bottoming out in the low-30s by early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a pleasant, albeit cooler day across mid-Missouri, with afternoon highs near average. Wednesday night will be clear and cold again with lows in the low- to mid-30s. By Thursday, high pressure will take hold to our southeast, allowing warmer air to be transported into the area.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Ritter

Issued: 10 AM CST 10 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was created using guidance from the 12z NAM and SREF Plumes. The main focus for the forecast period is the cold FROPA and associated strong to severe thunderstorms that pass through the area during the day today.

Central Missouri has been warmer this past week, but this is expected to change with the cold FROPA this afternoon. The primary concern with any storm is high winds. An upper level trough has been slowly pushing eastward over the central CONUS from the northeastern Central Plains driving our weather pattern. Ahead of a nearing cold front, storms are developing over western Missouri backed by a sufficient amount of moisture beneath 500mb along with a southwesterly wind assisting the amount of available moisture. MUCAPE values range from 700-1000 J/kg during midday with minimal instability and high winds. Forecasted LI is -4°C adding to more confidence in the development of strong storms.

Late this afternoon this storm system pushes east out of central Missouri. Winds begin to back west to northwesterly influencing a drop in temperatures through Tuesday night bring our temperatures to low-30s. High pressure begins to take hold of our area Wednesday, keeping us dry throughout the remaining forecast period. Wednesday's highs look to be in the mid-50s with sunny conditions. Overnight temperatures Wednesday drop down into the low-30s as skies remain clear. On Thursday, winds begin to shift southwesterly allowing for a slightly warmer day, with sunny skies persisting.