Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52- 56

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 70-74

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 50-54

Saturday - Mostly clear. High: 70-74

Sunday - Mostly clear morning becoming partly cloudy in afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

Expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to persist into the weekend for Columbia. Thursday night remains clear as temperatures drop to the mid-50s. Friday morning will see a high pressure system pass, maintaining clear skies and comfortable temperatures. Don't expect much change into Friday night, with temperatures staying in the low-50s. Saturday may see some clouds, but will be mostly clear throughout the day. As the weekend draws to a close we could see some cloud cover build up during Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than days prior.

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Forecaster: Cochran, Lamb, Nixon, Travis

Issued:  5 pm CST 5 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

This weekend continues to see unseasonably warm temperatures as a high pressure system passes through Columbia. This forecast was assembled using the 12Z GFS, and SREF/GEFS plumes.

An upper-level trough moves out of the Columbia area on Thursday, leaving our atmosphere dry and mild for the next few days. The upper level low over eastern Texas becomes cut off resulting in split flow with a ridge over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys as the cut-off low sits over the lower Mississippi Valley. The lack of circulation and moisture left in the wake of the exiting trough is responsible for the clear, calm skies persisting for the majority of the weekend. Finally, on Sunday afternoon GFS plots of 500-hPa height and absolute vorticity shows some weak circulation. Trace amounts of moisture are shown at 700 hPa originating from the low pressure system over eastern Texas. This results in the partly cloudy skies Sunday afternoon which is supported by GFS soundings. SSW winds at 850-hPa will result in continued WAA keeping temperatures steady and warm. This pattern reflects down to the surface, leaving us with temperatures in the low 70s.

The low pressure system from the SSW should be focused on going into next week, as well as cloud cover, as that will affect future forecast's temperatures.