Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Sunny skies and breezy. High: 62-66

 

 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50

 

Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72

 

Friday - Partly sunny. High: 64-68

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Discussion: 

Today was the only fall-like day of the week, as temperature will soar into the 60s and even 70s in the next few days. A calm, but warm, weather pattern will set up across Mid-MO tomorrow, providing clear skies, dry conditions, above-average temperatures through Friday. Southerly winds will allow for the warm-up, but they could be gusty at times. No moisture will move into the area until Friday, as clouds will return.

 

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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued: 4 PM CST 17 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

A general model blend of the 12Z NAM, GFS and SREF was used to create this forecast. The main focus of this time period is the warming trend Mid-MO will be experiencing through the week.

A 250mb trough is trekking eastward, and a mid-level ridging pattern follows behind it, which will be partly responsible for our warming temperatures. The ridge will allow for south/southwesterly flow into the central CONUS. Through the midweek, a LLJ at 850mb will amplify across the middle Mississippi Valley, allowing even more southwesterly winds to make their way into Columbia. WAA is expected to occur throughout most of the forecast period, beginning tonight. At the surface, a warm front is developing over central Nebraska and Kansas, and FROPA will occur between 06Z and 12Z tomorrow. Forecast wind gusts could reach 30-40 MPH as warm air is funneled into the region.

Moisture makes no threat to Mid-MO until Friday, as a cold front approaches the Midwest. Currently, this cold front is attached to the low associated with the aforementioned warm front. Soundings indicate mid-level clouds to spread out over the state as the front moves closer to us and gains moisture content from the WAA over the next few days. However, the NAM and GFS expect the front to stall to our north and become quasi-stationary through Friday and the weekend. Future forecasters should pay attention to the timing and impacts of this front, as the clouds could inhibit warming and saturation could occur earlier than first believed.