Monday, November 16, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 30-34


Tuesday - 
Sunny skies. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night - 
Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - 
Sunny skies. High: 62-66



Thursday -
Mostly sunny. High: 68-72
 
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Discussion: 

Today's temperatures were above-average, supplemented with sunshine and southwesterly winds. A cold front will pass through early tomorrow morning, only bringing seasonal temperatures to Mid-MO. A warm front is expected to follow short after, providing more above-average temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will pick back up out of the south through the midweek, supplying these warmer temperatures and a little bit of cloud cover. 
 
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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons
Issued: 4 PM CST 16 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
This forecast was generated by a general model blend of the 18Z NAM & GFS, supplemented with the SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is the rollercoaster of temperatures expected from two imminent fronts that will pass through Mid-MO within 24 hours of each other.

Strong storms that moved across Columbia Saturday night were associated with an occluded low with a central pressure below 980mb and a large pressure gradient across the mid and upper Midwest. We felt the effects of it long after its passage in the form of strong winds. Winds were a tad gusty as surface pressure increased through the day today, but those are expected to calm overnight. At the time of writing, we sit under a non-amplified trough with zonal flow. A very weak cold front is expected to move over Mid-MO around 12Z tomorrow, as CAA will occur in the middle Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will shift out of the north, and coming from a dry air mass, no clouds or precipitation will impact Columbia. 

By 12Z Wednesday, WAA will be dominating the Midwest as a warm front lifts over the region. A ridging pattern will set up across the central and eastern CONUS, and low-level gusty winds will start to advect warmth and moisture into the area. This will allow for a few clouds and temperatures to near 70 on Thursday. An amplified LLJ over the lower Mississippi Valley along with a large anticyclone will provide sustained winds of 20 kts or so on Wednesday and Thursday. Future forecasters should watch for the moisture associated with the warm front. Currently, the lower 500mb of the atmosphere looks dry, but this could change as we end the work week.

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