Friday, November 20, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 Friday- Increasing clouds. High:60-64


Friday Night -
Cloudy. Low: 44-48

 

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain likely after noon. High: 44-48
 

Saturday Night -
Rain. Low: 36-40


Sunday -
Rain ending by noon with skies clearing up early afternoon. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

Our pleasant weather transitions into a wet weekend as students head home for the upcoming Thanksgiving break. Friday will see increasing clouds through the day with one more day of temperatures in the 60's. Clouds will keep the sun away Saturday through lunchtime Sunday and rain chances will increase Saturday afternoon with as much as a half inch of rainfall possible through Sunday morning. This looks to be a rain event and not a storm event as a cold front slides through the region Saturday night. Temperatures will hover in the low to mid-40's for the majority of the weekend except for early Sunday morning when upper 30's are possible.


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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 20 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
While the weather has been pleasant the past few days, the focus now shifts to a front that will bring rain and cooler temperatures to the region. A blend of the 06Z NAM and GFS were used for the forecast period. GEFS and SREF were used for the consensus of models outputs. 

The 250-mb chart of heights and wind speed shows the region is in zonal flow and in the right-entrance region of a 130 knot jets streak core at 00Z Saturday. This provides weak divergence aloft and convergence at the surface. As the jet moves eastward, Mid-Missouri becomes in the left-exit region of a Sub-Tropical jet streak core at 00z Sunday where there is divergence at the surface and weaker divergence is located aloft. At this time a Polar jet trough is making its' way into the region having its axis overhead around 15Z Sunday. The trough travels just east of St. Louis by the end of the forecast period. 

Looking at the 500-mb vorticity and heights, Columbia begins to see vorticity enter the area around 18Z Saturday. This comes ahead of the shallow trough that moves through Sunday morning. Vorticity also will advect into the region as the trough moves through around 18Z Sunday.

Looking at the 700-mb, 850-mb and forecast soundings, Columbia will keep dry for Friday and into Saturday. Saturday morning, much of the atmosphere above 750-mb will be near saturation, while a North-Northeasterly wind will transport drier air near the surface. This should keep Saturday morning dry, however there is a slight chance the region observes light rain during this time. The main precipitation will begin around 18Z Saturday and last through Sunday morning with up to 0.5 inch possible. Sunday dry air will filter into the region from the North-Northwest allowing the sun to shine by afternoon.
 
 
 
 
 

 

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