Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 38-42

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 68-72

Tuesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. High: 70-74

 

Thursday - Decreasing clouds, sunny by afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

Yesterday we had a cold front move through Mid-MO and saw very windy conditions, but today our weather is dominated by a high pressure system located to our southeast. This pattern will continue through the next couple days as we warm up throughout the forecast period. Cloud cover will increase tomorrow night which will keep Wednesday morning low temperatures warm. However these clouds will not inhibit warming for the rest of the week.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  4 PM CDT 2 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated using the 12Z NAM and GFS supplemented with the SREF and GEFS. The main focus for this forecast is a dominant anticyclone followed by a shortwave expected to move into Mid-MO by mid-week. 

Today, Columbia saw lots of sunshine with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s from the anticyclone, which is positioned over SE Arkansas as of 18Z Monday. This system is expected to impact us through tomorrow bringing sunshine and southerly winds causing above average temperatures for the first few days of November. The trough over the eastern CONUS proceeds a ridge that is beginning to form over the western half of the country. This ridge in combination with the anticyclone associated with little to no moisture will create a warm and calm Election Day.

Beginning Tuesday night, our attention will shift to an upper level shortwave that is forecast to move across the lower Midwest. Currently, this shortwave is trying to become a cutoff low from the 250mb jet stream over the SW CONUS. The NAM and GFS suggest that the low will succumb to the flow of the jet and make its way eastward. However, once it reaches Missouri, it will have sufficient values of vorticity (models indicate ~10-20 s^-1 at 500mb over Mid-MO) and moisture to provide some mid to upper-level clouds Tuesday night through Thursday morning. This shortwave is not expected to produce rain because there is not sufficient moisture and lift in the lower 500mb of the atmosphere. One of the reasons why this shortwave is not expected to become a cutoff low is due to the fact that this system is not vertically stacked.

Future forecasters should pay attention to the track and intensity of the forecast shortwave. The latest model runs suggest a weaker shortwave than previous runs. At this point in time, only partly cloudy skies are expected from this but it is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of days.