Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

The Mizzou Campus Weather Forecast Will be on break during the week of November 23-27. We will return on November 30th at 10am!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Friday Night -  Cloudy. Rain starting after midnight. Low: 46-50

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain throughout the day. High: 44-48

 

Saturday Night - Cloudy skies. Rain continuing. Low: 38-42

 

Sunday -  Clouds remain. Rain ending around noon. High: 46-50

Monday - Clear in the morning, becoming cloudy. Rain beginning in the afternoon. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

Thanksgiving break in Columbia will start off with cloud cover and rain chances. The cold front that passed Friday afternoon will bring cooler temperatures with more clouds and a chance for rain Friday night. The rain will persist throughout the day on Saturday as temperatures continue to drop. Mid-Missouri will see a break from the rain Sunday afternoon but skies won't clear off until Monday morning. The chances for showers and clouds will return on Monday afternoon when moisture moves back into the area.
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Forecaster: Orr, Vochatzer, Travis

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 20 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 

Cloud cover and a high possibility of rain dominate Mid-Missouri over this forecast period. The passage of a cold front on both Friday and Saturday night provide the moisture for these systems and varied temperatures. This forecast was assembled using GFS model outputs, GFS soundings, and SREF and GEFS plumes.

 

The GFS plot of 250-mb heights and winds indicates that Columbia is below the influence of a jet streak until 21z on Sunday when the passage of a trough puts Mid-Missouri back under its influence. Before this time, upper level divergence passes through the area, giving plenty of support for the rain events during this time. On 500-mb plots of heights and vorticity, increased circulation remains out of the area until 12z Saturday when chances for rain are at their highest. The magnitude of circulation increases and reaches a maximum with the passage of the trough on 12z Sunday. 

 

GFS 700-mb maps of height and relative humidity show that there is abundant moisture in the atmosphere to provide for the upcoming rain events. While there is moisture present at 21z Friday, soundings at this time show a layer of dry air near the surface, preventing any substantial rainfall. The atmosphere becomes mostly saturated around 06z Sunday, meaning the best opportunities for rain begin after this time. The plentiful moisture remains over Mid-Missouri until 21z Sunday when skies are able to clear out. This break doesn't last long, however, as more moisture returns 21z Monday, allowing for afternoon rainfall. 

At 850 mb, GFS plots of heights, winds, and temperatures give the best depiction of the cold fronts passing by during the forecast period. Surface plots of MSLP and thickness support the passage of these cold fronts. Friday's cold front, passing at 18z, brings with it cooler temperatures. This is the reason for the gradually decreasing temperatures on Saturday. The second cold front passes at 06z Sunday.