Monday, February 8, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday - Snow before 2pm, Freezing drizzle possible after 2pm. High:18-22
Monday Night - Snow before 2pm, Possible freezing rain after 2pm Low:8-12 
Tuesday - Cloudy. High:14-18
Tuesday Night - Cloudy with slight chance of Snow after Midnight. Low:10-14
Wednesday - Possibility of Snow pm. High: 18-22

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Our cold temperatures and unpleasant weather conditions will continue throughout the week. The possibility of snow and a wintry mix will continue, before 2pm precipitation will most likely be in the form of snow. After 2pm, we could see precipitation in the form of freezing drizzle mainly south of Jefferson City. Tonight, the precipitation will move out by midnight giving us a overall possibility to see up to a inch of snow along and north of hwy I-70 and a glaze of ice south of Jefferson City. Temperatures will cool heading into Tuesday. Clouds will remain to linger with a possible chance of snow heading into Tuesday night. Wednesday cloud conditions remain the same with another chance of snow.


Forecaster: Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 11:00 AM CST 08 February 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The main focus for this forecast period is the type and amount of precipitation that the central Missouri area will see. When preforming model diagnostics, the RAP was used for the prognosis. When the GFS and the NAM was placed over the RAP at 8500mb height, the models correlated with the RAP. The GFS was grasping current temperatures better than the NAM, in result the GFS was one of the deterministic guidance used for creating temperatures and precipitation. Models used for this forecast period were the 06Z GFS and 06Z NAM, as well as GEFS and SREF.
Currently, Mid-Missouri weather is calm and cold. That will change as a mid-level frontogenesis pushes its way southeast. Which will increase warm air advection in a result that will be bring precipitation in the area later on today. At 250mb winds/height the central US is fairly zonal. There is currently a Jet Streak over northern Missouri, central Illinois, and central Indiana. That is leaving central Missouri to fall into a divergence region. At 500-mb it remains to be zonal. At 700-mb the mid-level frontogenesis starts become more pronounced over Northern Texas. Omega is present over Kansas and Oklahoma. 850-mb Humidity, the majority of the moisture lays over Kansas and Missouri. Humidity will stay continuous giving us conditions for precipitation and cloud cover. Mainly before 2pm the bulk of the precipitation will remain as snow. After 2pm we could possibly see mixed precipitation as temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere increase from the increasing warm air advection. Temperatures will still remain below freezing at the surface giving central Missouri the opportunity to see freezing drizzle. Accumulation amounts for snow are around 1inch to a trace. If there were to see any accumulation with Ice, it will most likely be a glaze. 

Tonight, the possibility to see freezing drizzle will leave around 11pm. Any precipitation that falls in the form of snow will leave around midnight. Dry weather is expected after midnight. A high pressure system that is currently in Minnesota will help drop humidity. But temperatures will remain cold, as central Missouri will be experiencing weak cold air advection.

Tuesday, at 250-mb heights/winds, Missouri will be sitting in between two jet streaks with any divergence remaining to the northwest. 500-mb vorticity, the atmosphere still remains zonal. At 700-mb the bulk of any vertical motion has moved to the east. At 850-mb humidity will drop into down into the 70-80 percent range. With weak cold air advection, central Missouri will continue to see unseasonably cold temperatures. With humidity and lack of vertical motion, only clouds will be present. 
Tuesday night going into Wednesday, at 250-mb heights/winds, at 06z on Wednesday a trough will start to form over Idaho, and Nevada. Divergence will start to form east of it. 500-mb possible areas of circulation increase over Colorado at 06z on Wednesday. 700-mb, omega starts to increase in Missouri. Humidity increases at 06z on Wednesday. These favorable conditions will help play a part in Central Missouri's next chance to see precipitation on Wednesday. Wednesday there will be a low pressure system in Colorado, with another low pressure system that will be passing through the Mississippi Valley. Warm air advection and precipitation will be sent North as the low pressure system in Mississippi moves North. Low pressure from Colorado will help send lift to the east. Conditions will be favorable for another snow/mix precipitation event in Central Missouri. This is a system that will need to be continuously monitored. As for now precipitation chances for the day of Wednesday remain low.



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