Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday - Overcast. Occasional snow flurries possible. High: 16 - 20.

Thursday Night - Overcast. A small chance for snow showers. Low: 2 - 6. 

Friday - Overcast. A slight chance of snow. High: 10 - 14. 

 

 

 

Friday Night - Overcast. Chance of snow late. -2 - 2

Saturday - Overcast. Snow possible early. Very cold. High: 6 - 10.

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

The Columbia area should expect more of the same over the next few days.  The deep cold will continue into the weekend.  Overcast skies will blanket the area bringing the possibility of on-and-off snow.  Thursday will see low chances of snow flurries throughout the day.  Friday will see another shot of frigid arctic air push into the region as lows could dip below zero in the overnight hours.  As with Thursday, there is a chance of snow throughout the day, increasing overnight.  As highs are predicted to be in the high single digits on Saturday with even lower wind chills, make sure to check-in on any at risk neighbors.

 

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Forecaster: Ede, Gasch, Pauley

Issued: 9:00 AM CST 11 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

The zonal flow will dominate throughout this forecast period. This flow will keep Missouri in similar conditions as the past few days with cold air and chances of flurries remaining persistent. The GFS was the main forecasting tool, with assistance and corroboration from the NAM, RAP, and GEFS plumes for temperatures.

For Thursday, a 500 mb jet streak will exit the Missouri area, caused by a weak shortwave. This will remove some of the vertical motion decreasing the chances of snow, but not removing them. Winds will remain out of the northeast for the remainder of the day and temperatures will top out in the 'teens.

For Friday, a 500 mb jet streak will exist over Iowa and much of the Upper Midwest, maintaining the zonal flow. Colder air will permeate further south as a large cyclone in southern Manitoba pushes into northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Friday will be approximately 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder as the cold air deepens.

For Saturday, soundings show a saturated profile, but with limited vertical motion, intermittent snow showers is expected. This is likely to occur in the early morning hours of Saturday. Following that, more cold air is expected with highs on Saturday barely reaching double digits and wind chills not getting above zero.