Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 34-38
Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32
Thursday - Partly sunny. High: 42-46
Friday- Mostly sunny. High: 48-52
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Discussion:
This week will bring us plenty of sunshine and a much needed break from the below freezing temperatures we saw here in mid-Missouri last week. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight and bring us slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but skies will remain mostly and partly sunny throughout the rest of the week. Another cold front is expected to move through the area on Friday. It is expected that the weather will be calm and mild as we look forward to the weekend.
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Forecaster: Clemons, Orr, Vochatzer
Issued: 5:00 PM CST 23 February 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
While no model was perfect with the warm temperatures we saw today, the 12Z GFS was chosen because it had the most accurate initial conditions at the start time of the forecast. SREF and GEFS plumes were also referred to for forecasting temperatures, and soundings from the GFS were used to check if rain was a possibility during the forecast period.
At the 250mb level, the GFS displays a zonal flow pattern over North America. Missouri is currently in the left exit region of the jet stream, which corresponds with an area of convergence aloft. Missouri remains in this area until about 15Z Thursday, which plays a major part in the calm conditions that dominate this forecast. At 0Z Friday, there is a suggestion that a cold front will pass through the area. 250mb is still a high level to look for the presence of fronts, so this will need to be looked at in lower levels as well.
500mb plots of vorticity continue to suggest the presence of a cold front passing Thursday night between 0Z and 6Z Friday. Other than that, the entirety of Missouri remains calm throughout the rest of the forecast. The 700mb plot of relative humidity suggests that Mid-Missouri will have enough moisture present for scattered clouds, but not near enough for any precipitation to occur. All abundant moisture is kept to the south due to northerly winds associated with the passage of Thursday night’s cold front.
When looking at the 850mb plot of winds, the cause for lack of moisture is much more evident. The LLJ is cut off by northerly flow that reaches its way to Missouri. Something that becomes evident at this level is the presence of a second, weaker cold front occurring around 12Z Wednesday, which explains the slight drop in temperatures on Wednesday. Thursday night’s cold front is visible at this level as well, and it explains the continued low temperatures our region is seeing. GFS soundings were used to make sure that the area would see no precipitation with these fronts, and with the cutoff LLJ, only cloudy skies are likely.
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