Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 28 - 32

 

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 42 - 46

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 26 - 30

Friday -  Mostly sunny w/ increasing PM clouds. Possible evening rain. High: 48 - 52

 

Saturday -  Mostly sunny.  Evening Clouds. High: 58 - 62

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Discussion: 

 

    The end of this week will remain a fairly pleasant one. While there will be a few more clouds than there were earlier in the week, temperatures will remain mild. The main disturbance in the nice weather could be some rain Friday night into Saturday morning. Though, it should be finished by sunrise on Saturday morning. After the rain moves through over night, we should be left with a delightful day that should be enjoyed outside.

 

 

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Forecaster: Gasch, McGuire, Vanderpool

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 24 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

 

 

The 12z model of the GFS was used to compose this forecast. The GFS appeared to handle the initial conditions at the time of the forecast. SREF and GEFS were used for temperature and precipitation prognostics. The main focus points of this forecast are a period of possible rain Friday evening and a cold front moving through Saturday evening.

 

Both the 250-mb and the 500-mb flows are zonal and will continue to be until a shortwave trough moves into the region Friday morning at about 09z. Vorticity at 500-mb and moisture at 700-mb advects into the area at this time, but the atmosphere at the surface appears too dry for the development of any precipitation. 

 

Later in the day on Friday as the shortwave exits the region, a shallow longwave trough develops of the western half of the US with Missouri in the downstream flow of the trough axis. A shortwave will travel along the trough bringing the possibility of precipitation to the area. With a PW value at 0.56 inches and a moist surface, according to forecast soundings, the precipitation should be light with very little accumulation expected. 

 

The rain moves out over night Friday along with cloud cover, bringing mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Significant WAA on Saturday will bring high temperatures near 60F in the afternoon before clouds move in ahead of the cold front that will move through during the evening and overnight hours.