Winter Weather Advisory is issued until February 15, 6:00PM CST
Wind Chill Warning is issued until February 16, 12:00PM CST
This forecast was generated with the use of the 06z NAM model guidance and the SREF Plumes. Most current models including the GFS tend to show a major cold bias when comparing the latest model runs. The 06z NAM has performed well in the past two runs for the current system and handles the timing of the deepening low-pressure system located over the southern parts of the Great Plains well. The main focus for this forecast period will be the accumulating snowfall potential and the frigid temperatures with wind chill into the -20’s.
Widespread light to moderate snow showers will be encompassing most of the central and southern parts of Missouri today thanks to a well-defined deepening upper-level trough. As this low-pressure system located over the southern parts of the Great Plains begins to push northeasterly, snowfall rates will increase and snow showers will strengthen over Columbia into this early afternoon. The current low-pressure system is tracking further south than originally predicted leading to decreased snowfall accumulation than previously thought. Columbia can expect to reach an additional 1-3 inches. As this low-pressure system moves northeasterly this afternoon, the maturing system will begin to weaken and the upper-level trough will begin to become more zonal. This weakening will lead to decreasing rates of snowfall which will taper off early into this evening. Our winds will continue with a northerly flow allowing for our temperatures to stay into the lower single digits for today's highs. The overnight cloud cover will stay with us, combining with winds out of the north to bring our overnight lows into the early negatives. Wind chills will drop to the -20’s.