Monday, February 15, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Weather Advisory is issued until February 15, 6:00PM CST

Wind Chill Warning is issued until February 16, 12:00PM CST

Monday -
 Overcast with widespread snow showers. High: 0-4

Monday Night - 
Overcast, scattered light snow showers beginning to dissipate. Low: -4-0

Tuesday -
A mix of sun and clouds, clouds increasing in the afternoon. High: 12-16  

Tuesday Night -
 Cloudy with a possibility of snow showers. Low: 6-10

Wednesday -
 Cloudy with a possibility of Snow. High: 22-26

 Thanks to for the icons!


Frigid cold, windy conditions, and snow will persist through Mid-Missouri throughout the mid-week. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 6pm on Monday followed by a Wind Chill Warning until 12pm on Tuesday. Heavier snow showers will continue early Monday morning ending around 6pm followed by light showers that taper off around 8pm. Columbia will likely see an additional 1-3 inches of snow by tonight. Tuesday we will see a break from the snow until Tuesday night where Columbia will add an additional half-inch of snow. Wednesday temperatures will increase into the lower to mid-20’s with a possibility for snow to occur.


Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Pauley
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 15 February 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was generated with the use of the 06z NAM model guidance and the SREF Plumes. Most current models including the GFS tend to show a major cold bias when comparing the latest model runs. The 06z NAM has performed well in the past two runs for the current system and handles the timing of the deepening low-pressure system located over the southern parts of the Great Plains well. The main focus for this forecast period will be the accumulating snowfall potential and the frigid temperatures with wind chill into the -20’s.  

Widespread light to moderate snow showers will be encompassing most of the central and southern parts of Missouri today thanks to a well-defined deepening upper-level trough. As this low-pressure system located over the southern parts of the Great Plains begins to push northeasterly, snowfall rates will increase and snow showers will strengthen over Columbia into this early afternoon. The current low-pressure system is tracking further south than originally predicted leading to decreased snowfall accumulation than previously thought. Columbia can expect to reach an additional  1-3 inches. As this low-pressure system moves northeasterly this afternoon, the maturing system will begin to weaken and the upper-level trough will begin to become more zonal. This weakening will lead to decreasing rates of snowfall which will taper off early into this evening. Our winds will continue with a northerly flow allowing for our temperatures to stay into the lower single digits for today's highs. The overnight cloud cover will stay with us, combining with winds out of the north to bring our overnight lows into the early negatives. Wind chills will drop to the -20’s. 

 Tuesday Morning, low-level winds will begin to shift from the north to our east. As the current low-pressure system pushes northeasterly, the cloud cover will follow in pursuit allowing for partly cloudy skies. The low-level winds combined with increased sunshine will allow us to warm nearly 10 degrees for our first time in days. The current Wind Chill Warning is set to expire at noon on Tuesday. As our temperatures increase, a deepening upper-level trough begins to develop off to our west over the Rockies. This next system will begin to push east and begins to affect Missouri late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday. Currently, model guidance suggests an ample amount of moisture being brought in by the southerly flowing low-level jet. With this southerly flow, we will also see an increase in temperatures heading into Wednesday. This could lead to accumulating snowfall as we head through much of late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The current timing of the Wednesday morning low-pressure system will be of major concern for the next forecasters as it could affect the early morning commute. 


No comments:

Post a Comment