For this forecast, the NAM was chosen as its current conditions most closely resembled what is happening at the surface now. Calm conditions will be the story for Wednesday and Thursday, but attention will be drawn to Friday's possibility for light rain showers.
At the 250-mb level, there is no distinct jet streak present, but there is a positively tilted trough just to the west of the forecast area contributing to the mild weather that is expected over the next few days. Relative humidity values are low throughout the forecast period at this level.
At the 500-mb level, conditions remain calm until 11Z Thursday when circulation makes its way into the area creating upper level cloud decks. The presence of moisture in this level is noticeable as early as 15Z Wednesday through the end of the forecast period.
At the 700-mb level, there is still no defined jet streak over the area as zonal flow persists. Moisture continues to stack down beginning at 03Z Friday and is exiting the area by 06Z Saturday.
The 850-mb level shows the low pressure system that passed through the area last night now located to our northeast. Behind this low, winds have shifted to come out of the north. This wind shift will aid in cooler temperatures for today and tomorrow. Moisture at this level is not noticeable until high relative humidity values appear at 21Z Friday.
Surface level conditions show a surface high passing through the area from 06Z Thursday to 06Z Friday. WAA on the back end of this high pressure system will bring warmer temperatures as well as moisture into the area for Friday. Because moisture is seen stacking down from model soundings throughout the atmosphere Friday afternoon, it is likely that light rain showers will occur. Only trace amounts of accumulation are to be expected.
Future forecasters should keep an eye on moisture levels and rain chances throughout the weekend.
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