Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 42-46

Thursday Night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 28-32

Friday -  Mostly sunny w/ increasing PM clouds. High: 48-52

 

Friday Night - Cloudy with a spot shower before midnight. Low: 34-48

 

Saturday -  Mostly sunny. High: 58-62

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

A high pressure system is dominating the region bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to mid-Missouri. For today, clouds will be building as an upper level disturbance moves through. Friday will be a nice day, as well, with the clouds from today passing through overnight tonight. Friday evening will see increasing clouds and the potential for a spot shower before midnight. Saturday will dawn with decreasing clouds introducing a very spring-like day after the long cold that was February.

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Forecaster: Ede

Issued: 9:00 AM CST 25 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The 00z run of the NAM was used for this forecast. The NAM was handling the initial conditions better than the GFS in the area of upper level moisture. GEFS plumes were used for temperatures though, as all ensembles were showing high confidence in the forecast temperatures. The focus of this forecast is the upper level disturbance that is passing overnight and tomorrow. 

 

Upper level flow is fairly zonal right now. At the surface, there is high pressure dominating, but will be exiting the area this evening as an upper level shortwave trough moves through the area. Spaghetti plots show this shortwave trough enters Missouri around 06z and exits around 12z, making way for an upper level trough that is expected to impact mid-Missouri sometime next week.

 

For Friday, after the shortwave passes, taking with it strong rotational vorticity, there is significant downward vertical motion and very little upper level moisture, indicating a clear day. Friday night, there is a strong Low Level Jet from the Gulf of Mexico pushing moisture into southern Missouri. This introduces the potential for a scattered shower, but there is very little upward motion to generate any significant rain. GEFS mean-spread shows a mean of .01 with a spread of .01, so there is a possibility of no precipitation.

 

For Saturday, the moisture moves to the north and east of Missouri. Zonal flow returns as the next system out West begins to develop. Winds from the southwest will bring warm temperatures and dry air.