Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wind Chill Warning is issued until February 16, 11:00 AM CST

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from February 17, 12:00 AM until February 17, 

6:00 PM CST

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High: 12-16

Tuesday Night - 
Clear with increasing clouds throughout the night.
 Low: 6-10

Wednesday -
Cloudy with snow. High: 22-26  

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with lingering flurries. Low: 8-12

Thursday -
 Partly sunny. High: 22-26

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Central Missouri is waking up to some of the coldest temperatures of the year. Possible wind chill values/feel like temperatures could be as low as -15 degrees Fahrenheit. These temperatures can be dangerous if proper precautions are not taken, so make sure to bundle up if you do plan on leaving to go somewhere today. Unseasonable temperatures may be the main story for today, but the sun has finally returned and will stick around for the remainder of the day. Overnight, clouds will start to roll in as we have another system moving into the area. This system will be our next chance for snow. We will start to see snowflakes fall in the morning hours on Wednesday, this system will be widespread so the bulk of it won’t start to move out until around 6pm. Since we will see some warmer temperatures, that could give us the opportunity to see bigger snowflakes than what we have been seeing the past few days. Total amounts could range between 1-2 inches. Moving into Thursday a high-pressure system will start to move into the area giving us another chance to see some sun and a bit warmer temperatures. 

Forecaster: Pauley
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 16 February 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was generated with a general model blend of the 06z GFS and the 12z NAM for model guidance. When compared to the 12z RAP and SHREF the grasp of the low-pressure system in the Northeast was almost identical. The 12z NAM was used as the primary model guidance since it correlated with current conditions/temperatures better than the 06z GFS. The 06z GFS had a warmer bias. The main focus for this forecast is the unseasonably temperatures starting of the day today and the next upcoming system on Wednesday. 

Today, temperatures this morning are blistering cold as there is a polar vortex stretching all the way down to Texas. This polar vortex will start pushing south in the upcoming days. As for now, temperatures are in the negatives with wind chills in the negative teens. There is currently a high-pressure system located in Iowa which is giving us sunny sky conditions. With sunny skies, this will help allow us to warm up into the lower teens. Clear skies will stick around with us until tonight as we have our next system moving in. At 250-MB heights/winds, there is a trough that is starting to form over Colorado stretching down into New Mexico. Around 12z on Wednesday this trough starts to define, which will help form a low-pressure system north of Texas. By 12z Wednesday that high-pressure system currently located over Iowa will start to move northeast and the low-pressure system in Texas will start to influence central Missouri's weather. 

Tonight into tomorrow, clear skies will stick around until humidity starts to increase around 12z Wednesday. The low-pressure system located in Texas will help push moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will start making its way in, in the morning hours on Wednesday hence, humidity increasing around 12z Wednesday. Omega (vertical motion) will start to increase around 12z Wednesday, providing a conclusion that we have the ingredients to see precipitation. This precipitation will start around 12z Wednesday (6am Wednesday). Since this moisture is coming from the south this will also help central Missouri’s temperatures to warm up almost 10 more degrees than what we will see today. Temperatures will still be below 32 degrees leaving this precipitation to fall in the form of snow. Humidity and uplift will stick around throughout the day on Wednesday indicating that this system will be widespread. We could possibly see bigger snowflakes than what we have been seeing the last few days because of warmer temperatures and warm advection aloft. This snow event will start to move its way out around 21z on Wednesday to 00z on Thursday (between 3pm-6pm Wednesday) giving us the chance to see up to 1-2 inches total. 

Wednesday night into Thursday, the possibility for snow will linger into the overnight hours on Wednesday. A ridging pattern will form over Missouri, with the bulk of omega moving out to our east with a high-pressure system developing over Kansas. Humidity will start to lift on Thursday giving central Missouri the chance to see clearing skies throughout the day as well as warming temperatures.


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