Wednesday, February 10, 2021


Wednesday - Cloudy. Slight chance for snow flurries. High: 16-20
Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Continuing flurries. Low:10-14
Thursday - Cloudy. Small chance for snow flurries. High: 16-20

Thursday Night:
Cloudy. Chances for flurries continue. Low: 2-6

Friday - 
Cloudy. High: 12-16

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More dreary weather will continue through the mid to late week. There will be enough moisture present to keep cloud cover around with continued spotty flurries. There's not enough moisture to produce sizeable amounts of snow, but roadways may continue to be slick as temperatures hold well below freezing. Make sure you bundle up as wind chills keep us feeling like we're in the single digits.


Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 10 February 2021
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The NAM appeared to be handling the current conditions the best between all other long-range forecasting models. The RAP was used to cross-check data for 13Z Wednesday through 09Z Thursday. The GFS showed abundant moisture and precipitation levels that could not be verified with current conditions. Because of these factors, the NAM was primarily used in this forecast. 

The primary concern with this forecast will be colder temperatures mixed with the possibility for snow. The concern extends throughout the entire forecasting period.

The 250-mb map shows zonal flow through 00Z Friday. The jet streak located at 350mb that is to our northwest over Oregon and Washington has northerly flow. The flow of this jet becomes near horizontal as it crosses over the Rockies and Midwest. The jet flow is helping to transport cooler air out of western Canada toward Missouri. This jet flow pattern will continue the current weather pattern of cloudy days and cooler temperatures.

At 500-mb at 13Z Wednesday there is little circulation, and the trend continues throughout the remainder of Wednesday. Thursday will usher in a small amount of circulation being brought in from the Kansas-Oklahoma border. The circulation will aid in our potential for flurries throughout the day Thursday and Thursday evening as moisture is still present as well. Also at 500-mb, shortwaves begin to appear over the Colorado Rockies as an extended trough continues to stack down over the area. This pattern of shortwaves can be expected to appear over Missouri by 12Z Friday.

At 850mb, the trough continues to stack down out west for the initialization time, and by 12Z Friday this trough will arrive over Missouri. Guidance suggests the brief formation of a closed off low as well.

At the surface level, a blend of the GEFS, NAM, and EURO were used to determine surface temperatures. Previous model runs were used to verify consistency with temperature data as well as the validity of the output.

Future forecasters should watch the possibility of impacts from shortwaves traveling through the area as the weekend approaches.

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