Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy, with a brief possibility for a light shower.
Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 44-48
Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 30-34
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 42-46
Unseasonable temperatures will be the story for today, but this time we are experiencing warmer than average temperatures. With sunny skies and southerly winds, that will play a big role in getting our temperatures into the middle to upper 60’s. Overnight tonight, we will have a mostly dry cold front push through the central Missouri area, yet the possibility for a spot shower can't be ruled out. Some moisture will be tagging along in front of the cold front, if we see any rain it will be brief. Headed into Wednesday, temperatures will warm up into the middle to upper 40’s since our winds will be coming from the west. But going from Wednesday night into Thursday, winds will be switching to the north causing us to not warm up as much for the day on Thursday. With winds switching to the north that will bring in some moisture into the area, giving us the chance to see some partly cloudy skies.
This forecast was mainly generated by 13z HRRR. The NAM and GFS were having a hard time grasping current temperatures. It is currently 46 degrees at 9:05am CST, the NAM and GFS were showing temperatures hitting 50 degrees at 12:00pm CST. The 13z HRRR was spot on with current temperatures and used for the prognostics. For Wednesday night into Thursday, a general model bend of the 06z GEFS and 06z GFS were used as they were both starting to line up with the 13z HRRR on Wednesday.
Today, at 250mb Missouri is sitting under a ridging pattern. At 500mb and 700mb the atmosphere is lacking any areas of circulation and vertical motion over Missouri. Down at 800mb and 950mb there is a lack of humidity and winds are coming from the south. The ridging pattern is more pronounced at 800mb height/winds. At this point any snow from the past week has melted, this will help drive our temperatures to be warmer. Lack of vertical motion and humidity will southerly winds and no snow on the ground are going to help warm up central Missouri’s temperatures into the middle to upper 60’s today.
Tonight, there will be a cold front that pushes through Missouri. This cold front will be mainly dry, but can't rule out a light shower. At 250mb, winds will start to become more zonal into the overnight hours. Vertical motion will start to pick up right in front of this frontal passage around 00z-03z Wednesday. There is a small line of humidity that will be tagging along with this vertical motion, currently, the humidity is around 70%, but as it pushes south it will increase to 90%. Counties south of I-70 will have a higher possibility of seeing some rain overnight.
Moving into Wednesday and Wednesday night, things will stay pretty zonal aloft. The majority of lift associated with the frontal passage will move off to the southeast. Humidity will drop down to 40-50%, giving central Missouri clearing skies. Temperatures will be closer to average temperatures for this time of year.
Going into Thursday, the main difference is that temperatures will not be warming up as much as Wednesday's temperatures. There will be a trough moving in aloft at 250mb over Iowa. That will be switching winds from the west to the north. This will help build up some more vertical lift and humidity giving the ingredients for partly cloudy skies.
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