Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32

Friday - Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 48-52

Friday Night -Evening rain subsiding around midnight. Low: 36-40

Saturday - Overnight clouds move out early morning. Mostly sunny.                           High: 60-64

Sunday- Partly cloudy and windy. High: 48-52

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

Thursday night skies will have clouds moving ahead of a low pressure system reaching us on Friday. The system will bring with it moisture, giving us rain in the evening and stopping as Saturday approaches. Saturday sees a high pressure system on the surface giving the area spring-like conditions with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 60s. On Sunday, a cold front passes through the area making our temperatures drop back down to the high 40s.

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Forecaster: Cochran, Nixon, Lamb, Travis

Issued: 5:00 PM CST 25 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The GFS was mainly used today because when compared to the NAM it was more accurate with respect to observed pressure and temperature readings. SREF and GEFS plumes were also used to reference temperatures. The main focus in this forecasting period is a Friday night upper level trough and increasing temperatures during the weekend.

The 250-mb plot shows the subtropical jet pushing south out of the area, it is replaced with an upper level trough on Friday, leaving behind zonal flow until another trough is expected as the weekend comes to a close. The 500-mb level shortwave coincides with strong circulation and an influx of moisture from the low-level jet originating from the Gulf of Mexico evident at the 850-mb level. This supports rain throughout Friday evening beginning around 00Z.

As the upper level trough and moisture move east, we are dominated by zonal flow. Due to a SFC high and WAA, Saturday will see spring-like conditions. A cold front branching off of a low pressure system moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley reaches our area on Sunday, leaving CAA and strong surface winds in its wake.

The next forecasting period should focus on the positively tilted trough coming into the area on Monday.