Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday - Clouds increasing throughout the day. High: 48-52

Friday Night - Scattered Showers with mostly cloudy conditions. Low: 36-40

Saturday - Overnight clouds move out early morning. Mostly sunny. High: 60-64

Saturday Night -  Light rain stopping before midnight. Mostly Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Sunday- Partly cloudy and windy. High: 48-52

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

Thankfully, the relatively warm weather should persist for most of this forecasting period and weekend. Friday Night will result in increasing cloud cover with the threat of pop-up showers.  Due to a high pressure system over much of Mid-Missouri, Saturday temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s. However, cold front passage Saturday night will carry light rain with accumulation of 0.1-0.2 inches and a decrease in temperatures into the high 40s.

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Forecaster: Hefner, Ozdas, Bongard

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 26 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

The NAM was mainly used for this forecasting period due to comparisons ran by model diagnostics to the GFS. NAM40 had a more accurate representation of initial conditions for temperature and surface.  SREF and GEFS plumes were additionally implemented to reference quantitative precipitation forecasts for Friday and Saturday rain chances. 

The 250-mb plot shows the subtropical jet and the polar jet will be coupling starting from Friday 18Z and these jets will be coupled completely by Sunday 03Z. With this coupling occurring over our region, the convergence and divergence regions merging will effectively cancel each other out. The flow is west-southwesterly at this level showing a little bit of meridional flow because of the subtropical jet coupling with polar jet. At 500-mb on Friday 14Z the vorticity is a little bit high the convergence will take place over us.

Lower level moisture content suggests the scattered cloudiness on Friday and this will be cleared out on Saturday. However, by 06Z Sunday, the atmosphere will be getting moistening again suggesting that shower likely on Sunday. At the surface this moisture will be advected from the south ahead of the cold frontal passage on Sunday. This moisten advection will help saturate the column form the surface up. However, this moisture over mid-Missouri will be short-lived as the NAM model sounding dries up by 15Z Sunday as the region resides in a post-frontal weather regime by Sunday afternoon.