Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night - Overcast. Low: 4-8.

Friday - Overcast. A small chance of afternoon flurries. High: 10-14. 

Friday Night - Overcast. A slight chance of snow. Low: 0-4. 

 

 

 

Saturday - Overcast. Chance of snow. High: 8-12.

Sunday - Overcast. Snow starting in the afternoon into the evening. 

High: 6 - 10.

 

 

 

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Discussion: 

 

The Mid-Missouri area should expect little change in the weather throughout the weekend. There is a well-developed low pressure system sitting north of us causing mild but cold weather. Moisture from the west coast travels over to Columbia giving us cloudy skies and light flurries on Friday and Saturday, with Sunday experiencing the highest chance of precipitation. The low pressure system is bringing cold, Arctic air downward, causing the temperatures to stay below freezing. As a result, the National Weather Service has placed Mid-Missouri under a wind chill advisory Thursday night.

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Forecaster: Lamb, Nixon, Cochran, Travis

Issued: 6:00 PM CST 11 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 

The main focus for Columbia as the week comes to a close is cold temperatures and overcast skies caused by a deeply-penetrating, slow-moving, low-pressure system. The GFS was mainly used in the forecast, with assistance from RAP, GEFS, and SREF plumes.

At the 250-mb level, there is a well-defined closed low system sitting over Manitoba, Canada slowly moving towards Ontario. This system forces the polar jet streak to move south over Northern Missouri, resulting in zonal flow that will allow current conditions to persist for the rest of the forecast period.

The low pressure system in Southern Canada is still well-defined at the 500-mb level continuing to keep zonal flow and arctic air in the area. On Friday going into Saturday, Missouri receives circulation associated with a low pressure system moving southeast from California.

Soundings and the GFS 700-mb relative humidity plot show a large influx of moisture into Missouri originating from the Maritime Polar air mass beginning on Friday evening. The moisture content gradually increases for the remainder of the weekend. 

Cold air advection will be prevalent through Friday and Saturday, but weakens into Sunday. The National Weather Service has issued a wind chill advisory as low as -10 degrees for Thursday night into Friday. The 5400-gpm 1000-5000-mb thickness line continues to push south, causing Sunday to remain cold. GEFS and SREF plumes support the gradual decrease in temperature as the weekend ends. 

Late Sunday morning 12Z GFS soundings indicate saturation stretching from the surface to around the 700-mb level. Circulations from the low pressure system in the southwest United States push into the Columbia area, coupled with the high amounts of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will result in higher chances for precipitation on Sunday.

 

The next forecast period should focus on the deep shortwave trough bringing precipitation into the area.