Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Sunny. High: 50-54

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 60-64  

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy, breezy with the possibility of a stay shower. Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. High: 44-48

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Discussion: 

A warming trend begins on Monday morning as winds start shifting from the northwest to the west on Monday. Clouds began to roll out towards the east overnight Sunday which will lead to sunny sky conditions on Monday allowing for warming temperatures as the day continues. Heading into Monday night, we remain cloud-free allowing for a slight cooling to the lower 30s. Columbia remains sunny on Tuesday and winds begin to shift southwesterly allowing for warmer air to move into our area aided by increased sunshine. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a cold front moves into the area bringing with it clouds and breezy winds late Tuesday night. With this passing cold front, scattered light rain early on Wednesday will be possible in central Missouri. This cold front will lower the temperatures for Wednesday as some clouds will remain later into the day.

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Forecaster: Gotsch, Henderson, Pauley

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 22 February 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

For this forecast period, 06z GFS model was used due to its handling of current temperatures and model timing verified from the previous model runs. For the majority of the forecast period, the GFS handles moisture content Fairley. The GFS lower 850-surface was used in conjunction with SREF plumes for temperatures. The main focus for this forecast period is the increase in temperatures and sky conditions. 

Monday an upper-level trough proceeds to move east from the Ohio River valley and begins to decay as it reaches the eastern United States shown by the 250-500Mb geopotential heights and winds. As the trough begins to decay the upper-level flow starts to become zonal. A switch from westerly to southwesterly winds at the surface aided by reduced cloud cover will result in warming temperatures and will continue increasing into Tuesday. Tuesday night an upper-level shortwave trough will move over central bringing with it a cold front that will move southwesterly through Missouri. With this front, winds will begin to increase out of the northwest. As the cold front pushes through, mid-level clouds will remain with us until the early afternoon of Wednesday. As the shortwave moves out of our viewing area we will return to a zonal flow. 

The next forecaster's main concern for the next forecast period will be the upper-level trough that begins to form over the Rockies late Wednesday. The main influence of this system will be the possibility of rain and decreasing temperatures as this next trough pass through central Missouri.