Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 54-58

Friday - Mostly cloudy. High: 60-64

Friday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 48-52

 

Saturday - Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. High: 46-50

Sunday - Rain ending by noon with skies clearing up early afternoon. High: 46-50

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Discussion: 

After an unseasonably warm Thursday, temperatures will take a dive to kick off the weekend. A stationary front passes through the Columbia area Friday evening around 6pm. Temperatures following the slow moving front will steadily decrease and by Saturday drop to near average for this time of year. The beautiful weather will turn to a cloudy and rainy Saturday with these conditions lasting until noon on Sunday. After the rain clears, we will end this weekend with clear skies Sunday afternoon.

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Forecaster: Cochran, Nixon, Travis

Issued: 6:00 PM CST 19 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

The focus for this forecast period is the front moving through the Columbia area, bringing with it clouds, rain, and cooler temperatures. The models used for this forecast period were the 18Z GFS and 18Z NAM, as well as GEFS and SREF. 

 

The upper level ridge responsible for our recent pleasant weather pattern begins to move out of the area on Thursday night. This will be replaced with a shortwave seen at 500mb passing over mid-Missouri by Saturday at 00Z. This region also begins to get a large influx of moisture around this time, suggested by both the NAM and GFS 700-mb plots of RH. This will result in very well saturated air from about 850mb to almost 300mb as shown by model soundings. However, there did not appear to be any significant CAPE values, so the likelihood of storms is minuscule. 

 

This column of well saturated air will be met by a surface low pressure system passing through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The low does not appear to be well developed, but will still aid in the presence of rain beginning around 00Z on Sunday. This will last until no later than noon, with skies clearing up in the early afternoon after the atmosphere has significantly dried out in the upper levels. 

 

The main focus for the next forecast period should be the influence of a longwave ridge that appears to be making its way into the area within the next couple days.