Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Becoming mostly cloudy, late. High: 70-74

 

 

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 50-54

 

Thursday - Becoming sunny. High: 70-74

            

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 52-56

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

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Discussion: 

Today, temperatures reach the low 70s while we experience windy conditions, and upper level clouds will form this evening as temperatures drop into the low 50s. The clouds will move away by Thursday afternoon as temperatures reach the low 70s again. Thursday night will be clear, allowing the high temperature on Friday to be slightly cooler. This entire forecast period will be relatively dry with no chance for precipitation.

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9 AM CST 4 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06Z GFS and SREF plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the high pressure system to our southeast allowing for warm, clear conditions, and a shortwave trough moving through our area early Thursday morning. 

On Wednesday, there is a tight pressure gradient over Missouri allows for strong winds from the southwest. The skies will be clear until clouds start to build later this evening, allowing insolation to help raise our high temperature into the low 70s. A shortwave trough will move through our area overnight, bringing enough moisture with it for some upper level clouds to develop. Slight circulations and negative values of omega are associated with this trough, but those smaller values combined with the smaller amount of moisture will not allow for precipitation to form. The GFS sounding show dry air under the clouds, so any precipitation that did fall would evaporate.

Clouds will move away by Thursday afternoon, and the southwesterly flow at the surface combined with clear skies will allow temperatures to rise to well above average again. Thursday night, skies will remain clear, allowing for radiational cooling. Friday's high temperature will be slightly lower than Thursday's.