Tuesday, November 10, 2020

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Tuesday Night - 
Mostly clear. Low: 30-34

Wednesday - 
Sunny. High: 52-56
  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 

Thursday - 
Mostly to partly sunny. High: 60-64 

Friday
 - Mostly to partly sunny. High: 46-50

 
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Discussion: 
A cold front moved through Columbia around lunchtime today, bringing some strong storms and cooler temperatures. Tonight, gusty northwesterly winds will cause temperatures to continue to drop, potentially below freezing. Temperatures will be more seasonal tomorrow with clear skies into the night. Thursday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with a southerly wind as more clouds trickle in ahead of a drier and weaker cold front. This front is expected to bring even cooler temperatures for Friday and no precipitation at this time.

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Forecaster: Abruzzo, Baker, Clemons, Ozdas
Issued: 4 PM CST 10 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated from a general model blend, guided by the 18Z SREF, NAM and GFS. The main focus for this forecast period is the cold FROPA that occurred near 18Z in Columbia today and its expected impacts throughout the rest of the week.

At the time of writing, the "bowed" storm system has moved out of Mid-MO and skies are beginning to clear. Above, this cold front was associated with moisture, vorticity, and was along a prominent jet streak creating meridional flow across the Ohio River Valley. Behind this jet streak exists very zonal flow that is expected to keep weather conditions calm for the forecast period. CAA over the area, along with consultation from the SREF, leads us to believe that temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler than originally forecast. A dry anticyclone will set up shop to our west tomorrow, helping usher in northerly winds that will keep temperatures seasonal and skies clear. As this high pressure system moves to our east, winds will shift out of the south and WAA will begin over Mid-MO on Thursday. Temperatures and clouds will increase through the day on Thursday due to a shortwave out ahead of another cold front expected to impact us around 06Z on Friday. There is model continuity that moisture will stay above 700mb to provide cloud cover--but not rain--to end the week. However, temperatures will decrease yet again behind cold FROPA Thursday night.

Future forecasters should pay attention to cloud cover, the strength of Friday's cold front, and the anticyclone expected to move across the central CONUS this week. Currently, no precipitation is likely with this cold front, but it would be worth monitoring as we inch closer to the weekend. The anticyclone and shortwave could help advect moisture into the Midwest on Thursday, but the SE U.S. could be moisture-starved from Tropical Storm Eta. 

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