Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 52-56

  

Wednesday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 

 

Thursday - Sunny, with clouds moving in early evening. High: 58-62

 

Thursday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 28-32

Friday - Mostly to partly sunny. High: 46-50

 

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Discussion: 

We will return to sunny conditions today, as the cold front from yesterday has finished passing through our area. Winds from the northwest are bringing in cooler air today, but tomorrow will be warmer as winds return to the southwest. Be prepared for temperatures to drop below freezing Thursday night with the passage of another cold front. This front will be weaker and drier than the last, bringing clouds with it but no rain.

 

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued: 9 AM CST 11 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06Z GFS model, supplemented with SREF and GEFS plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the high pressure system moving to our east tomorrow and a shortwave trough moving a cold front through Thursday night.

The cold front from yesterday has finished moving through our area, causing winds to shift to the west and northwest today. This will advect dry, cold air into our region, causing temperatures to be cooler than they were early in the week. Clear skies tonight will allow for radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the mid 30s.

We are currently under the influence of an anticyclone that will move to our east tomorrow, allowing winds to shift back to the southwest. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Thursday due to warm air advection. However, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through Thursday night, bringing another cold front with it. This front will bring enough moisture and negative omega with it to form clouds Thursday night, but soundings indicate that the surface will be too dry for any precipitation to fall. Significant circulations associated with the shortwave will stay just north of Missouri. 

Friday's high temperature will be the lowest of the week, as winds shift back to the northwest after the frontal passage, bringing in more cold air. Again, high pressure to our east will cause winds to shift back to the southwest. This will aid with moisture advection, forming clouds ahead of the next system that will impact us on Saturday.