Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Sunny skies. High: 60-64

Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 30-34

Tuesday - Sunny skies. High: 52-56

Tuesday Night -Clear skies. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Sunny skies. High: 62-66

 

 

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Discussion: 

Cloudless skies can be expected over the next few days. Southwesterly flow will allow for warmer temperatures today with highs in the low-60s. Overnight, winds shift to the northwest and cloudless skies will bring in much cooler temperatures in the low-30s. A weak cold front passes through Mid-Missouri on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures with it. Temperatures will warm again Wednesday with high pressure building into our area and winds shifting to the southwest.

 

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Forecaster: Ethridge and Ritter

Issued: 10 AM CST 16 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

The main focus for this forecast period will be temperatures. The 06 UTC GFS was used as primary guidance, supplemented by SFEF plumes. 

 

Currently, a 250-mb jet streak is overhead. At 500 mb, the trough that was responsible for our active weather Saturday night was located over the Great Lakes and moving east, with a ridge amplifying in the western CONUS. Since the passage of the upper-level trough and associated cold front early Sunday morning, there has been no moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Low-level flow this morning is steadily shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly. At the surface, a high-pressure center was located over central Arkansas, with a cold frontal boundary in place over the north-central CONUS.

 

Looking ahead to the first few days of this week, the GFS shows the upper-level ridge in place over the western CONUS will steadily build into the region. Due to this strong ridging, the atmosphere will be devoid of moisture throughout the forecast period, leading to cloudless skies for the beginning of the week. Lower level flow, however, shows a lot of variability throughout the early part of this week. Per GFS Skew-T's, winds will veer with height throughout the day today, allowing afternoon temperatures to reach into the 60s, considerably warmer than yesterday's afternoon high. Overnight tonight, low-level flow will shift to the northwest. With clear skies prevailing, temperatures will be able to drop significant tonight, bottoming out in the low-30s. On Tuesday, a cold front will pass through the region early in the day, causing low-level winds to back behind it, indicating CAA. Therefore, Tuesday will be a cooler day, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-50s. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface high-pressure center will move into the Midwest, and low-level flow will shift to veering with height again, allowing overnight lows Tuesday night to be warmer than Monday night, and afternoon highs Wednesday to be much warmer than Tuesday's.