Wednesday, November 18, 2020

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Wednesday - 
Sunny skies and breezy. High: 60-64
 
 

Wednesday Night - Clear skies. Low: 46-50

 
Thursday - Sunny and breezy. High: 68-72
 
  

Thursday Night -
Partly cloudy. Low: 52-56


Friday -
Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. High: 62-66

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Discussion: 

We are returning to warmer than average conditions during this forecast period. Today and Thursday, strong winds from the southwest will bring warm, clear conditions. The strong wind is responsible for a wildfire hazard to our west that could potentially affect our area. A cold front moving through early Friday morning will cause temperatures to drop slightly, but still warmer than average. The cold front will increase moisture levels, allowing clouds to form and showers in the afternoon.
 
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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall
Issued: 9 AM CST 18 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
 
A combination of the 06Z GFS model and SREF plumes were used to build this forecast. The main focus for this forecast period is the warming trend today and tomorrow followed by a cold front that will bring increased moisture levels.

A high pressure system to our east and low pressure to our west are responsible for the strong pressure gradient that currently sits over the midwest. This will contribute to the warming trend by causing WAA. Thursday, the pressure gradient relaxes slightly, but a strong LLJ over us will cause even stronger WAA and warmer temperatures for the day. 

Thursday night, a shortwave trough north of Minnesota will move a cold front through our area, bringing increased levels of moisture with it. The LLJ will aid with moisture advection as the cold front passes. The 700 mb level shows that increased RH and negative omega values will be present Friday. GFS soundings show that the atmosphere will be saturated from the surface through 750 mb. Low level clouds and rain are expected Friday afternoon. Models show the cold front stalling out in northern Missouri. This will impact the amount of precipitation and the timing and should be monitored in future forecasts.


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