Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Becoming mostly cloudy. High: 70-74

 

 

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 50-54

 

Thursday - Becoming sunny. High: 70-74

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

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Discussion: 

Today, Mid-MO saw temperatures reach the lower to middle 70s with a nice southerly breeze and lots of sunshine. The southerly winds and clear skies come from a high pressure system sitting to our SE. We expect to see warmer overnight temperatures due to the warmth of the southerly winds and eventual cloud cover that will work its way into Mid-MO midday tomorrow. Around noon tomorrow, high-level clouds will make a return to Columbia, but they will not inhibit warming, so we still expect above average temperatures through the week. Cloud coverage will continue through Thursday morning, before clear skies dominate once again.

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Forecaster: Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  4 PM CST 3 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated with guidance from the 12Z NAM & SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is fair weather from a quasi-stationary anticyclone to our SE, followed by a shortwave that could disrupt this pattern tomorrow and Thursday. 

At 250mb, we currently sit under a ridge that is stretching across the Midwest, ending near northern Dixie Alley. Dry conditions exist through all mandatory levels of the atmosphere, as a high pressure system over the southern Mississippi Valley spews southerly winds into Mid-MO. This has helped provide warmer than average temperatures and sunny skies both yesterday and today. 

The 12Z NAM at 500mb forecasts a shortwave to move closer to the Midwest over the next 24 hours. Little vorticity is associated with it as this was trying to form into a cutoff low over the southern Rockies, but succumbed to the flow of the jet at 250mb. However, this upper-level shortwave is expected to bring us a little bit of moisture in the form of cloud cover from roughly 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday. There is no moisture and/or lift with this system present in the lower 500mb of the atmosphere, so no precipitation is expected with these clouds. Since this moisture is only present in the mid-atmosphere, we will probably only see mid-level clouds that would not assist in inhibiting warmth from the Sun's shortwave radiation. 

Future forecasters should pay attention to the intensity of the shortwave and whether or not it carries any vorticity or shear with it as it makes its way eastward. At this point, the 500mb shortwave only poses a threat for cloud cover, but it would be worth monitoring as it inches towards us in the next 24 hours.