Monday, November 2, 2020

 

 

                                                              Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         



Monday -
Mostly sunny. High: 56-60


Monday Night -
Clear skies. Low: 38-42


Tuesday -
Abundant sunshine. High: 68-72


Tuesday Night -
Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 46-50


Wednesday -
Partly cloudy. High: 70-74
 
 
==================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Very pleasant weather is in store for this first week of November. As high pressure develops to our south and east, Columbia will experience southwesterly flow at the surface, allowing for plenty of warm air to be ushered into the region. This will result in above-average temperatures each day of this forecast period, with afternoon highs nearing 60 today and approaching or even exceeding 70 Tuesday and Wednesday. While clear skies will dominate through Tuesday evening, a disturbance is expected to develop Tuesday night, helping to add some clouds to our sky Tuesday night and Wednesday.
 
===========================================================================
 
Forecaster: Ritter
Issued:  10 AM CDT 2 November 2020
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main concerns for this forecast period are temperatures and the influence of a developing shortwave on our weather late Tuesday into Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was used as primary guidance, supplemented by the SREF.

At the time of writing, a 250-hPa jet streak was located to the east of Columbia, arcing around the base of a longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes. This longwave trough was even more apparent at 500 hPa, with a ridge building toward Columbia from the Rockies. Low-level moisture was non-existent, with low level winds beginning to shift from northwesterly to southwesterly. At the surface, a center of high pressure was located over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Winds at Sanborn Field had shifted to the south.

Looking ahead to the forecast period, pleasant weather will be the name of the game. The GFS shows the upper-level trough exiting the CONUS today, allowing the ridge to take control. The GFS, however, suggests that the ridge will become less amplified throughout the day today, with the upper-level flow becoming more zonal by early Tuesday. GFS Skew-T's show veering winds in the lowest 200 hPa of the atmosphere through tonight, indicating WAA will be taking place. Thus, today will be warmer than yesterday, and Tuesday will be warmer than today. Furthermore, with GFS Skew-T's showing no moisture in the column through late Tuesday, cloudless skies can be expected in this time frame. Afternoon highs today and overnight lows tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's high and low, respectively, owing to the strength of the WAA and clear skies. Tuesday's afternoon high will be even warmer, likely approaching 70 degrees.

By Tuesday night, the GFS expects a 500-hPa shortwave trough to develop and amplify. This trough, however, will have very little moisture to work with overall, and no moisture in the low levels, so this disturbance will only be able to muster some cloud cover. Even so, there still will be plenty of sun peeking through the clouds Wednesday. With southwesterly flow persisting in the low- and mid-levels of the atmosphere, Wednesday will continue to be warm, perhaps even warmer than Tuesday, with afternoon highs near or even slightly above 70.



No comments:

Post a Comment