Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

         
    
      

  Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 65

                

 Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 80

 
 

Saturday Night: Widespread showers and storms, especially after midnight. Low: 60

 

 

 Sunday: Showers lingering until early afternoon, mostly cloudy thereafter. High: 65

Sunday Night: Clouds decreasing. Low: 48

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Very warm conditions will continue for at least the next 24 hours, as southerly winds continue to advect warm air into mid-Missouri from high pressure to our southeast. A cut off low over the rockies, however, will traverse northeastward over the great plains on Saturday, bringing the chance for widespread showers and storms tomorrow night. A cold front will follow suit Sunday morning, sending our high temperatures back into seasonal territory in the middle 60s.

- McDonald

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Forecasters: McDonald, Travis, Watts

Date Issued: 04/22/2022 4:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

NAM was used for this forecast because the temperatures were slightly less accurate with GFS followed by the precipitation.

 

At 250mb a strong trough followed by a low-pressure system coming from the southwest Saturday morning will drift over the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley along with strong winds of 50-70 knots. The jet streak will be plunging the system along with divergence Sunday morning causing low pressure system to circulate at its highest point Sunday evening.

 

At 500mb vorticity will start to drift over the Midwest Sunday morning but won’t be its strongest until Sunday evening causing concern for something to happen with temperatures warming up into the high 70s and low 80s. Because of the circulation that’s going to occur Sunday evening, winds won’t be there strongest until the low-pressure system drifts over the Midwest.

 

The Mississippi Valley will receive a moderate amount of relative humidity at 700mb coming from the northwest Sunday morning meaning moisture will be a factor in this forecast towards the back end. As the low-pressure system moves east towards the Gulf of Mexico, Missouri has positive vertical velocity occurring with rising motion followed by moisture meaning the anticipated circulated system with moisture will confirm the possibility of storm systems developing this weekend.

 

Strong southerly winds control most of this forecast along with along with the anticipated circulated low-pressure system that’ll fully develop Sunday, which means because we are approaching May temperatures are going to start rising in the Midwest meaning moisture is going to be a factor in the coming weeks.

 

Looking at the sounding, elevated convection is a possibility around 0Z Sunday along with forcing being present. Precipitation totals for this period are roughly going to be around .38in.

 

-Watts

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Warming temperatures. High: 82

 Friday Night: Few clouds. Low: 63
 

 

 

 

Saturday: Increasing clouds. High: 80

 

 

 Saturday Night: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms after  midnight. Low:60

Sunday: Rain ending by noon. Scattered clouds in the afternoon and evening. High: 68

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Columbia will see seasonally warm temperatures on Friday and Saturday, so enjoy it while you can! A low pressure system over the western United States makes its way east, being our weather-maker for the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday morning, there will be showers and possible thunderstorms, though they are not looking to be severe at this time. Showers are expected to total .4" and will bring cooler temperatures back on Sunday.

- VanUnnik

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Ethridge, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/22/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The model chosen for this analysis was the NAM. The plumes for the NAM had very good consensus, while the GFS has our high for the day much lower than expected as well as greater spread in the temperatures.

At the 250mb level the shortwave disturbance in the flow that caused the severe weather to our west on Thursday night has moved off to the east. A negatively tilted trough is deepening over the western CONUS while high pressure in the southeast CONUS helps build an amplified ridge over the eastern states. Low pressure at the center of this trough develops and pushes eastward over the Plains on Saturday. We see a lot of divergence along the leeward side of this trough building over the Dakotas before pushing north into Canada.

At 500mb we see high vorticity within the low pressure system mentioned above as it moves over the CONUS. This system picks up energy as it moves over the Plains and into the Northern Mississippi Valley. The circulation, however, begins to wind down as it moves northward on Sunday. We will still see some additional vorticity maxima throughout the day and overnight on Sunday trailing behind the low pressure system.

At 700mb the moisture we saw on Thursday begins to move east and dries out the atmosphere overhead. A new round of moisture begins to build up over the West Coast and moves eastward with that low pressure system. As the system moves east, it is fed by moisture from the Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico which eventually wraps into the low pressure system as it moves over the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. This will provide ample moisture for storm systems developing in those areas.

Southerly and southwesterly winds dominate for most of this period until Sunday when the trough and accompanying low pressure system (to the north) move over Missouri, so warm temperatures can be expected on Friday and Saturday. Winds will then switch to northerly as the trough moves over Missouri and temperatures will be cooler on Sunday.

The sounding is showing some potential for elevated convection around 03Z on Sunday. We see a strong inversion at the 800mb level just above a very stable layer extending down to the surface. There is forcing present on the sounding, so if this remains in place as we head into the overnight hours on Saturday, convection is possible. Precipitation totals for this period are approximated at around 0.35in. 

 -Ethridge

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Cloudy with an isolated storm possible. Low: 62
 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy, seasonably warm. High: 84

 

 

Friday Night: A few clouds. Low: 65

 

 

Saturday: Cloudy and breezy. High: 83

 

 

Saturday Night: Showers and storms in the evening. Low: 58

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

A welcome warmup arrives this weekend ahead of more chances for rain. This evening, we may catch a stray storm as a warm front lifts north but chances for rain are low. The end of the workweek stays pleasant behind the front with highs soaring to above seasonal averages Friday. This temperature trend continues Saturday as breezes pick up; some gusts may reach up to 30 mph. Clouds arrive Saturday ahead of showers and storms in the evening, and the severe risk looks low this weekend. Central Missouri is set to receive nearly a half inch of rainfall by the end of the weekend as rain continues Sunday.

- Splater

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Forecasters: Splater, Noblitt, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 04/21/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For our forecasting shift, both the GFS20 and NAM40’s MSLP were compared against 18Z surface analysis by the NWS. With both models being fairly accurate to the surface analysis as well as the SREF and GEFS plumes being very close to the temperatures recorded at Sanborn, both models were utilized in our forecast. Various combinations of NBM, soundings, and plumes were used in forecasting cloud cover, temperatures, and precipitation.

    Starting with the 250mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence, an upper level ridge currently resides over the Great Plains, slowly traveling eastward. This ridge will eventually transition over the Mississippi Valley early Friday. Meanwhile, a LPS and its trough to the west of this ridge begins to deepen as it moves east throughout the day. This trough will begin to amplify, with the jet streak reaching a maximum around 120 knots. Divergence dominates the downstream side of the trough as it continues to the east Saturday, aided by the upper level LPS in the Northern Plains. This trend in divergence will continue as a jet streak begins to push into northwestern Missouri early Sunday morning.

    Following this with the 500mb plot of heights, winds, and vorticity, the ridge continues to keep most of the Mississippi Valley fairly clear of any vorticity. There is an area of circulation identified sliding east across northern Missouri into central Illinois late tonight, however this will largely affect areas just north of Columbia. As the overhead ridge and the LPS in the Northern Plains both progress to the east, a band of circulation will slide across the upper half of the Mississippi Valley Saturday, followed quickly by the vorticity surrounding the LPS as it along the Dakotas Sunday.

    Looking at the 700mb plot of heights, winds, RH, and omega, moisture fed by the LLJ rests over the eastern edge of the Central Plains late tonight. This will move east, allowing a slight chance of storm formation and precipitation given the corresponding location in vorticity. Moisture along the western edge of the Mississippi Valley begins to reform early Saturday, once again fed by the LLJ. This, combined with lift indicated in the omega values, will assist in storm development and precipitation throughout the day and into Saturday night.

    Finishing with the 850mb plot of heights, winds, temperatures, and dewpoints, southerly winds will help increase surface temperatures. The LLJ’s south to north orientation will bring warm moist air throughout the forecasting period, reaching a maximum of 70 knots over central Kansas. A cold front formed from the LPS will slowly move across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, advecting cold air into the northeast Central Plains late Saturday night. Looking at the MSLP and 1000mb-500mb thickness, we see very little advection over mid-Missouri throughout our forecasting period which indicates very little increases or decreases in our highs and lows. Given the slight chance of precipitation late tonight and the storm system moving in Saturday, our anticipated total precipitation is around 0.5”.

 

- Noblitt

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Rain ends. Low: 48
 

 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 73

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. An isolated evening storm is possible. Low: 63

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 83

 

 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 63

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Many had to walk to class in cold and stormy conditions today. Luckily, the next two days will be much drier. Columbia also experiences quite the warm-up over the next two days due to the passage of a warm front on Thursday. Thursday temperatures will warm up into the 70s, with an overnight low in the 60s. There is a chance for a thunderstorm along the warm front, but this is only a slight chance. Friday temperatures warm even further as winds increase out of the south gusting to 35mph, highs on Friday will be in the 80s. 

-Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 04/20/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The GFS and NAM models were both accurate in their forecasted temperature for Wednesday afternoon. The GFS though was chosen for this forecast discussion over the NAM, as it accurately modeled the current surface low-pressure system over the western United States. The greatest problem for this forecasting period is the potential for thunderstorms Thursday night.

At 250mb, the jet stream present over the central plains shifts north of Missouri Wednesday night. The jet stream, with its associated divergence, shows the greatest winds near the Great Lakes. Winds over Missouri are from the northwest at 50kts. The upper atmosphere sees a relatively zonal flow over the central United States Thursday. A deep trough strengthens over the west throughout the day, allowing for a slight ridge to impact Missouri Thursday night. With this shift to a more meridional flow, an area of divergence moves over Missouri Thursday night. This brief period of a shortwave disturbance quickly ends as Missouri sits under a ridge, with a trough staying off to the west for the remainder of the forecasted period. 

The vorticity present over the CONUS at the 500-mb level shifts to the north Wednesday night. Missouri will see little circulation Thursday until a small disturbance late Thursday night. Vorticity returns to the area, as the aforementioned meridional flow strengthens over the CONUS. As a ridge pattern becomes more defined, Friday into Friday night, no strengthened circulation is expected.

The current increased moisture leaves Missouri Thursday 09Z. Thursday will see a few clouds throughout the day. Increased levels of moisture at 700mb will return to mid-Missouri late Thursday night, though, the potential for precipitation will remain low. Columbia will remain dry until moisture returns Saturday night.

850mb shows Missouri impacted by southerly winds around 50kts Wednesday afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to increase Thursday early morning as a warm front moves through. Winds shift northerly for a brief period overnight Thursday as a shortwave impacts Missouri. This disturbance is short-lived as southerly winds will begin to dominate again bringing warmer temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.

Warm air advection present Wednesday afternoon supports the continued convection. Cloud cover and rain are expected to continue until this evening. As the ridge moves over Columbia with its associated high-pressure system, southerly winds are seen over Missouri. Thursday and Friday will bring above seasonally average temperatures.

Soundings from GFS from the 12Z run show the atmosphere drying out after 06Z Thursday. Fog will be present early Thursday morning. A slight veering profile can be seen Thursday with southerly winds at the surface. Moisture returns to Missouri 00Z Friday with elevated CAPE values and a lifted index of -4. The potential for a thunderstorm is greatest during this time, while precipitation values are only near 0.1 inches. Friday and Saturday will see some clouds, but the potential for rain will not re-enter Columbia until this weekend late Saturday night and Sunday. 

- Heienickle 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday: Rain. High: 56
 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Rain ending. Mostly cloudy. Low: 50

 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 73

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Building clouds with a chance of thunderstorms. Low: 63

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Warmer. High: 83

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

It's going to be one wet and wormy Wednesday. As showers continue off and on throughout the day today, those worms are once again going to make their appearance on campus sidewalks. It may be a better idea to keep that rain jacket handy rather than an umbrella as the rain is going to be accompanied by winds gusting near 35mph. Rain will be off and on throughout the day today before ending in the late evening. That doesn't mean you can pack the rain jacket back in the closet though: there are more chances for rain Thursday. This second round of showers will begin Thursday evening and end mid-morning on Friday. A rumble of thunder or two is possible but severe weather is not expected. Rainfall totals through the end of the week will be around an inch. Despite the rain, temperatures will be on an upward trend and will be above average to end out the week.


-Kobielusz​=================================================================

Forecasters: Macko, Kobielusz, Bongard

Date Issued: 04/20/2022 10:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 06Z runs of both the NAM40 and the GFS20 have been able to match current conditions quite well, particularly in the areas of current temperature and placement of frontal boundaries. The NAM40 was selected over the GFS20 for this forecast period due its better grasp on the placement of the low-pressure system in far western Kansas early Wednesday morning. It is this low-pressure system that will impact Columbia's weather in the days to come. Soundings and SREF plumes were also utilized to determine convective potential, temperatures, and precipitation accumulations.

250-mb wind plots indicate a predominantly zonal flow across the CONUS. The only exceptions to this statement include a deep, upper-level trough over the Atlantic and an upper-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains around 15Z Wednesday. This shortwave will track steadily toward mid-Missouri, where it is expected to remain from 23Z Wednesday to 05Z Thursday. Zonal flow will return following the passage of this shortwave before upper-level ridging takes hold over the Great Plains. Mid-Missouri will remain out of jet influence for entirety of the forecast period as the jet is expected to stay north. Similarly, no upper-level divergence is evident. By Friday evening, a well-defined trough-ridge-trough pattern has developed over the CONUS. The western trough may influence the weather heading into the weekend as it moves eastward, and future forecast shifts should mind its evolution.

The shortwave seen at 250 mb is also evident at 500 mb and impact mid-Missouri during the same time frame. Vorticity associated with this shortwave will exit the Columbia area just after 00Z on Thursday. Vorticity will not make another return to Missouri through the rest of the forecast period, as zonal flow followed by ridging will occur through the end of Friday. However, by Saturday morning, a significant swath of circulation is located over the western Plains states, something that may impact conditions over the weekend.

Negative omega is prevalent in Missouri in during the overnight hours on Wednesday into Thursday, potentially resulting in some lingering precipitation following the passage of the shortwave in the upper levels. Plentiful moisture exists at 700 mb on Wednesday before the layer dries out considerably by 00Z Thursday. By late morning on Thursday, positive omega will once again prevail under ridge control.

 

850-mb moisture transport vectors indicate that there will be a significant moisture supply from Wednesday into the early morning hours on Thursday. After this point, moisture will not be reintroduced to the region until late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Forecasted soundings for Thursday night into early Friday morning suggest the possibility of convection. However, there is a lack of low-level forcing associated with the passage of a warm front around that same time. This will inhibit any significant convection, and thunderstorms should be on the generic side. Low-level forcing should be monitored in the forecast shifts leading up to Thursday evening, as sufficient forcing may be enough to result in a severe storm. Soundings for Friday imply high values of CAPE and LI between -6 and -8. However, very little moisture appears to be available during this time. Low-level moisture content should be watched carefully over the next few shifts.

PWAT values decrease throughout the day on Wednesday, suggesting that rainfall will end late Wednesday evening. PWAT values will increase once again during the daytime on Thursday, leading to late evening rain. SREF output suggests that total rainfall accumulations will be no greater than 1".

- Macko

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds and showers beginning late. Low: 44
 

 

 

Wednesday: Overcast and showers during the day. High: 60

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy and Rain ending. Low: 50

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Chance of storms in the evening. High: 75

 

 

Thursday Night: Cloudy and clearing. Chance of storms early. Low: 63

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

A cool start to the week will lead to soggy conditions and warmer temperatures. As high pressure over Columbia moves out, rain and the possibility for thunderstorms is on the way. A breezy south wind will help warm surface temperatures up to the low 60s on Wednesday, but make sure to get your umbrella out as showers are expected throughout the day. Showers will tapper off early Thursday morning. Fog is possible as the sun rises and is expected to burn off by mid-morning. The warm up continues through the end of the week as temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s on Thursday. Showers begin again Thursday with the greatest chance for storms late Thursday into early Friday morning.

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 04/19/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Rain, rain, and some more rain; that’s what we can look forward to in this forecast. For this period, the NAM40 was selected to be the deterministic model as it seems to have a better handle on current mid-level moisture and temperatures. The SREF also has a notably smaller range for 2 meter temperatures throughout the period. Both the GFS and NAM seem to be tracking the two upper-level lows and jet stream similarly, and have a substantial spread in their respective ensembles in regards to QPF.

Currently in the upper atmosphere, a low pressure system is trekking across British Columbia, Canada. This low pressure system is moving a ridge and subsequent trough over the CONUS and will help drive the active weather throughout the week, even though the jet stream is very weak right now. Overall, the upper atmosphere is fairly calm considering how active the mid and lower levels are. At 850mb, a low pressure system is traversing New England is leaving to the east, another low pressure system is over Alberta, Canada moving east while a high pressure system is over the Gulf of Mexico is heading towards the mid-Atlantic Coast.

Tonight we can expect to see rain. This will be thanks to the 850mb low pressure system in the northern Great Plains and the high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico fueling the low level jet. The very strong low level jet will be shoving a lot of moisture into the lower Great Plains and Midwest tonight and into tomorrow. The LLJ is expected to have streaks reaching over 75kts. At 03Z Wednesday, we expect to see the column completely saturated up to the tropopause, negative Omega values between the 700 and 300mb levels, reaching -20 values at some levels, and mid-level circulation. Due to WAA occurring overnight, around 15Z Wednesday CAPE amounts near 1000 J/kg will be present in mid-Missouri, giving us the opportunity for some isolated claps of thunder. With the exception of some occasionally intruding dry air pockets, these conditions will persist until 18Z Wednesday. After 18Z Wednesday, lingering showers will persevere until 03Z Thursday when a dry line pushes the rest of the moisture in the region to the east. Between 9Z and 15Z, calm winds and saturation near the surface could create foggy conditions. This fog will disappear before noon.

After the dry line passes Wednesday night, the sky will begin clearing for a few hours until 15Z Thursday. Around 15Z Thursday, the LLJ will begin to reform and begin sending more moisture to mid-Missouri, bringing with it more clouds. Omega values at this time range from 0 to -15 between the surface and 400mb, giving us another chance at rain. Throughout the day Thursday, WAA and some solar heating will raise CAPE levels to around 1000 J/kg. This will present Columbia and the surrounding area another isolated opportunity to hear thunder rumble around 0Z Thursday night. There are better chances for thunderstorms in northwest Missouri at this time, so if the LLJ were to shift east, we could see more widespread thunderstorms Thursday night. The last of these showers will be moving out around 06Z Friday and with it we should see some breaks in the clouds for the rest of the night.

Precipitation totals for the period are as follows: Tuesday night, .15 inch; Wednesday, .6 inch; Wednesday night, less than .1 inch; Thursday, .2 inch; Thursday night, .2 inch. These precipitation amounts can cause impacts to yards and other undeveloped areas as this rain will saturate the ground. The possibility of low lying areas flooding is low, but cannot be ruled out. Next shift should watch the LLJ reforming Wednesday for its positioning.

-Alexander

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Clouds begin to move in. High: 56
 

 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Showers begin to move in later in the night. Low: 44

 

 

Wednesday: Overcast. Showers with a few possible rumbles of thunder. High: 60

 

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Storms ending. Low: 51

 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Storms pick back up in the evening. High: 72

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

April showers bring May flowers, and we're certainly seeing those showers this week! Although Missouri is under some high pressure right now, keeping out skies clear, showers begin to etch their way in tonight and continue through Wednesday evening. Total precip amounts will range around .5" to .75". The biggest chance for severe storms falls on Wednesday evening, but it seems that storms will remain fairly calm as they move through Columbia. Temperatures will finally begin to rise back up to average for this time of year, with Wednesday having highs in the lower 60s, and then finishing out this week in the mid to upper 70s.

 

-Cade

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 04/19/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Prepare for a soggy few days ahead as chances of rain exist for the remainder of the week. The main focus of this forecast period is narrowing down the timing and amount of rain later this week. The 06z GFS was primarily used for this forecast due to its better handling of the ridge/trough pattern set up over the CONUS at initialization. Additionally, the GEFS ensemble had noticeably smaller spread in total QPF than the SREF ensemble.

GFS plots of 250-hPa height and wind show the amplified ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS transitioning to a more zonal regime near the end of the week as the LW trough to the east continues to move further in that direction. Prior to that, brief upper-level ridging will ensue Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. At this time, a shortwave will move off of the Rocky Mountains and bring mid-Missouri’s first shot of active weather. With it, however, Missouri will predominately be in the right exit region a jet streak to the west, so large-scale dynamic support will be somewhat limited at first. By the end of the forecast period, the polar jet stream will have begun its long-awaited retreat north helping to lock the cP and cA air masses up in Canada where they belong.

Regarding upper-level flow, much is the same story at 500 hPa. 500-hPa absolute vorticity shows increased (albeit relatively weak looking) circulation propagating into Missouri from the southwest by early Wednesday morning. These vorticity maxima will influence the forecast area into Wednesday evening. By Wednesday night and into Thursday is when the upper-level flow regime flattens to zonal likely keeping Thursday quieter. Outside the scope of our forecast period, Friday a longwave trough begins to dominate the western half of the CONUS and will provide the large-scale set up for an active weekend.

700-hPa plots of RH and vertical motion show deep-layer saturation over the mid-Mississippi Valley early Wednesday morning and sticking around into Wednesday afternoon. This moisture quickly pushes off to the east by Wednesday night but is replaced by a northward surge of saturation moving up from the south. This being much less widespread and a lack of forcing discussed above leads to thinking that rain chances for Thursday are less. Moisture transport at 850 hPa looks most efficient Wednesday morning with a 50-kt LLJ setting up over Missouri. 850-hPa moisture transport vectors (MTVs) and dewpoint show moisture convergence in Missouri on Wednesday being pushed out by a weak boundary by Wednesday evening. This boundary will stall keeping the moist airmass to the south on Thursday. Similarly, MSLP and surface winds show a weak cold front that will move through Wednesday afternoon and stall. This will eventually lift back north as a warm front overnight Thursday into Friday.

GFS soundings support much of what was said above. The column will gradually saturate from the top down Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Rain looks to begin between 09z and 12z Wednesday. Soundings favor destabilization of the atmosphere as the day progresses. By Wednesday early afternoon, MUCAPE reaches near 1500 J/Kg. As such, some isolated thunderstorms embedded in the larger stratiform rain looks likely. Upon passage of the aforementioned cold front, the column dries rapidly as rain looks to taper off after sundown Wednesday evening. Thursday will likely see some sunshine to start the day allowing for temperatures to warm considerably from the early week. The wind profile on the sounding shows the lifting of the warm front nicely. Chances for thunderstorms increases again, Thursday afternoon/evening as the atmosphere will destabilize by the afternoon with now surface based CAPE reaching near 1000 J/kg. This, combined with a strongly veered wind profile may result in some stronger storms. While severe storms shouldn’t be ruled out, lackluster low-level lapse rates should prevent a widespread severe event. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning.