Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Winter Weather Advisory until March 11, 06:00am

Thursday Night: Overcast with snow throughout the night. Low: 26

Friday: Snow in the morning, overcast. High: 33

Friday Night: Clouds clearing through the night. Low: 11

Saturday: Clear early, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 32

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 23

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Looks like winter isn’t quite done with Missouri as we settle in for another batch of cold temperatures and snow. The snowfall will continue through tonight and into Friday morning, with our sky remaining overcast. Friday night will see a high pressure system slide across Kansas and into southern Missouri Saturday morning, which will help break up our cloud cover. This will also give some warming as our winds shift to the south for Saturday night just in time for us all to “spring forward” with Daylight Savings beginning Sunday. Anticipated precipitation for mid-Missouri is expected to be around 2” of snow through Friday morning.

- Noblitt

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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater

Date Issued: 3/10/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

A blend of models was used for this forecast due to impending winter weather. This includes the GFS and NAM as well as the RAP and NAM for snow guidance. Overall, models concur with current conditions and many factors going forward, with only marginal differences in temperatures.

A bout of snow will be likely this evening as mid and upper level dynamics align over our region. At 200 mb, a jet streak will form overhead with wind speeds approaching 120 kts and will remain in place through Friday. This, along with mid-level forcing and frontogenesis, will allow for a round of snow overnight. What are currently light flakes will shift to steady snow showers beginning at 03Z and tapering off just after 06Z Friday. Columbia will see 2-2.5” of snow by tomorrow morning with areas to our east receiving lesser amounts.

Another winter threat looms behind the snow as bitter cold returns for the start of the weekend. A trough ejecting from the four corners regions into the central CONUS will push temperatures over 20℉ below average on Friday night. Persistent northerly flow in the mid and lower levels will also likely keep temperatures near or below freezing through Saturday. The axis of the upper level trough swings through around 09Z Saturday, and hefty westerly flow following will lead to fairer conditions next week.

Surface winds shift more southerly heading into Sunday which warms temperatures back to near, or possibly above, seasonal averages. Another trough will then dig into the western U.S. and may lead to more active conditions early next week.

 

- Splater

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

Thursday: Cloudy, snow beginning in the early afternoon. High: 37

Thursday Night: Overcast, snow. Low: 26

Friday: Overcast and snow in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon. High: 33

Friday Night: Clearing. Low: 15

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Winter weather on another Thursday - deja vu! A sunny sky Wednesday afternoon will soon be filled with clouds as a low pressure system in the northern portion of the United States will impact Missouri. Thursday will see potential for light snow as Missouri sits on the eastward side of a trough. This trough will strengthen due to some warm, dry air coming in from the south. Beginning Thursday night, a cold front will move through Missouri dropping temperatures and bringing precipitation with it. Thursday and Friday will see strong winds and a snow accumulation of around 1". The chance for snow will drop significantly as a dry layer is introduced to the mid-atmosphere. Clouds will begin to decrease throughout the day, giving way to a clear sky Friday night. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 3/09/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

Although the GFS and NAM both forecasted colder temperatures than the observed temperature for Wednesday afternoon, both models accurately portrayed the low pressure system over Colorado. Further, this forecast used a blend of the 12Z run of the GFS and the NAM. The greatest question for this forecast is the timing and quantity of the potential winter weather mix expected Thursday and Friday. 

At 250-mb, the continental United States is seen in a meridional flow due to a slight trough with its axis over Montana. A weak jet streak is seen over Missouri beginning 21Z Thursday; these northerly winds stay over Columbia at the upper level until 06Z Friday. The northerly flow shifts westerly around 00Z Friday and wind speeds decrease. An increase in winds occurs as a jet streak reappears over Columbia with strong northwesterly winds; these high winds at 110-kts persist until 03Z Saturday. The axis of the trough, moving east from Montana, will be over Missouri 06Z Saturday. 

Vorticity is not seen over Columbia at the 500-mb height Wednesday afternoon. The city will begin to see weak circulation 06Z Thursday moving eastward from Kansas. This weak vorticity will remain over Missouri for the remainder of the forecasting period. Strong vorticity will impact Missouri 18Z Friday coming from the deepening of a trough moving east over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Vorticity will leave Missouri around 12Z Saturday.  

The midwest is dry Wednesday afternoon with no areas of increased levels of relative humidity seen at 700-mb. A sunny sky in Columbia this afternoon is supported by this lack of moisture. From the northwest, increased moisture will move over Nebraska into the northern half of Missouri 12Z Thursday. Saturation will be present for the remainder of Thursday, supporting the potential for winter precipitation. This moisture begins to move south impacting mid-Missouri Thursday night and into Friday. The increased values of relative humidity at 700-mb will continue to move towards the southeast leaving Columbia by 21Z Friday. The area will return to dry conditions for the weekend.

Winds at 850-mb are weak and northerly. Winds begin to shift due to a low pressure system moving east over Oklahoma, shifting winds in Missouri to southerly 09Z Thursday. Southerly winds will remain until Thursday evening. Around 03Z Friday, a cold front will move over Missouri, seen by the shift to strong northerly winds. This will cause temperatures to drop Thursday night into Friday. Strong northerly winds with values around 30-kts will bring gusty weather conditions Friday. These winds will remain strong into the weekend.

At the surface, temperatures for Columbia currently are average for the beginning of March in the mid 30s. A high pressure system moves eastward over Iowa Wednesday afternoon, bring stable weather to Missouri. A low pressure system to the southwest can be seen strengthening over New Mexico at the same time as a low pressure system can be seen over northern Minnesota. This deep trough over Minnesota brings a cold front Thursday night with below freezing temperatures and northerly winds. 

The greatest potential for precipitation will be Thursday afternoon into mid-afternoon; temperatures will be below freezing at the surface and aloft showing snow. This potential for snow will continue throughout the night and into the morning Friday. Snow accumulations are forecasted around 1" for Missouri. Commuters should take caution on the road Thursday evening and Friday morning.

 

- Heienickle

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Clouds building in the afternoon. High: 49

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 27

 

Thursday: Overcast. Rain and snow. High: 37

 

Thursday Night: Snow. Low: 24

 

Friday: Snow ending. Cloudy. High: 33

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

No wishcasting here, folks! Meteorological spring may have arrived last week, but forecasts with snow have yet to take their leave. Snow is expected to begin late Thursday morning. A wintry mix is possible in the afternoon as temperatures warm above freezing. By Thursday evening, snow will become the dominant precipitation type once again with snowfall continuing overnight. Snow will end by early Friday afternoon, but cloudiness and chilly temperatures will persist. Snow totals are expected to be around 1".

- Macko

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/9/2022 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

The GFS and the NAM were evaluated for today's forecast: ultimately, the 06Z run of the GFS was chosen. Both models were running similarly temperature wise, but the GFS was doing a better job in accurately portraying low pressure in Colorado which will eventually lead us to our problem of the day. The main problem for this forecast will be the timing of our next chance for precipitation along with precipitation types and amounts. Soundings were consulted to determine timing and type of precipitation and the NBM was consulted in determining temperatures and snowfall totals. The period of this forecast ranges from Wednesday, March 9th to Friday, March 11th.

A zonal flow in the upper-most levels of the atmosphere has mid-Missouri just on the outskirts of a jet streak. This remains throughout the forecasting period until late afternoon Friday where wind speeds begin to increase. An upper-level, positively tilted trough located in the Dakotas this afternoon will head eastward towards Missouri but will lose amplitude as it heads east. By the time it reaches mid-Missouri, only the northern remnants of the trough can be seen near the Great Lakes.

The same trough that was observed in the upper-levels can be seen in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This trough, again, begins in the Dakotas and makes its way east; however, the axis of the trough does reach mid-Missouri. An excess of vorticity is associated with the axis of this trough. Vorticity comes and goes in waves over the next coming days, but as we head into ​Friday and fall under the influence of the trough, vorticity increases.

Vertical velocity is also following the same patterns that vorticity is following. Positive omega will come and go over the next 36 hours and will really begin to become prevalent as we head into Friday with the axis of the trough. Moisture at 700mb is minimal until overnight on Wednesday. Then, moisture will increase until Friday. With the existence of moisture, lift, and instability, we now have all the ingredients necessary for precipitation.

Despite winds coming out of the north, moisture at the lower levels is more extensive than at 700 mb. It does however follow the same pattern of increasing overnight. Soundings indicate the saturation of the atmosphere overnight as well. There is a deep moisture profile shown overnight through early Friday afternoon. Given the cold temperature profile and lack of a warm nose, the most likely type of precipitation is snow. Snow is likely to begin Thursday morning before the possibility of transitioning into a rain and snow mix. This will continue through late morning on Friday as a dry layer begins to infiltrate. As for snowfall totals, 0.5" to 1.0" can be expected.

Future forecast shifts should continue to pay attention to timing and type of precipitation along with temperatures as cloud cover and snowfall may bring temperatures down.

-Kobielusz

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

 

Wednesday: Scattered clouds. High: 49

 

Wednesday Night: Overcast. Low: 30

 

Thursday: Overcast. Rain and snow. High: 41

 

Thursday Night: Overcast and snowy. Low: 24

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Winter is making a boldly comeback with cold winds and temperatures. Starting tonight, the winds will become more northerly and vary from 5 to 15mph. These winds, paired with the cold temperatures, will cause wind chill values to be in the teens to lower-20s. The rest of the week is looking to be cloudy, but we may see sunshine Wednesday before the moisture returns Wednesday night. This return of moisture will be responsible for rain and snow on Thursday through Friday. While there is uncertainty with this system's timing and location, we currently believe rain/freezing rain will begin early-morning Thursday becoming a rain/snow mix mid-day. This will continue until Thursday night where the precipitation will turn into freezing rain, before midnight. We expect less than 2 inches of snow to accumulate and less than .1 inches of rain to fall.

- Alexander

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 3/8/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

    After last weeks quiet weather led to an active weekend, the pattern continues for this week. Colder and quieter weather for the beginning of the week will lead to the potential for a late season winter event on Thursday and Friday. The overall problem during this forecast is the timing of the rain and snow event, the type of precipitation and the changeover from rain to freezing precipitation, as well as,  snow accumulations. It is also important to note that temperatures during this period are much colder than in the days previous.   

    In the forecast the NAM was primarily used to forecast atmospheric conditions as it had a better handle on current placements of low pressure in Southern Canada. Both the NAM and the GFS were spotty when forecasting surface temperatures, but the GFS performed slightly better and the members of the GEFS plumes seamed to be more in agreement. NAM forecasted soundings were used for timing of the event and precipitation type. 

    The beginning of the week will start off quieter as very zonal flow dominates the upper atmosphere. A trough develops over the western part of the CONUS early on Thursday. A jet streak seen on a 300-mb chart of heights and wind shows the streak approaching Mid-Missouri later on Thursday. The streak is relatively weak with wind speeds of around 110 knots, but should allow for some divergence in the upper part of the atmosphere. 

    A similar story is told at 500-mb where plots of heights and vorticity show some higher values of circulation associated with a shortwave disturbance early on Wednesday. This indicates the development of some cloud cover on Wednesday, as a lack of abundant moisture will inhibit any chances for precipitation. The second important feature at this level is the increase in circulation associated with the positively tilted trough in the western part of the United States. This occurs after 12Z Thursday and continues throughout the end of the forecast period Thursday night. 

    At 700-mb a pocket of moisture enters Missouri from the south early Wednesday, but values of relative humidity and the dry air that moves in behind it indicates the potential for only development of clouds during this time. The rest of the moisture that will be responsible for rain and snow chances on Thursday arrive ahead of the trough on Thursday around 12Z. There is also an increase in omega values during this time, indicating some upward vertical motion that will aid in the start of precipitation. 

    Winds at 850-mb are out of the south until a mild cold front passes through Mid-Missouri around 09Z Wednesday. Moisture from a southerly wind ahead of the front and limited forcing due to the passage of the front may lead to the development of some cloud cover on early Wednesday. The bulk of the moisture arrives around 12Z Thursday ahead of the low pressure system to southwest. 

    As mentioned earlier the difficulty in this forecast was diagnosing the timing and the type of the precipitation. There is still a lot of uncertainty with total snow accumulations due to the wintry mess that may occur Thursday into Friday. The upper level conditions, arrival of moisture, and use of soundings indicate that precipitation should start early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be in the lower 30s, but a significant dry layer indicates that any precipitation is likely to start as rain or freezing rain. As temperatures increase during the day on Thursday, most of the precipitation will likely fall as rain. A transition to a rain/snow mix is likely later on Thursday, then back to freezing rain before midnight Thursday as the upper levels of the atmosphere dry out. There is still a lot of uncertainty to how the dry layer will effect precipitation type.

 Future forecasters should pay close attention to timing and precipitation type for the upcoming winter event, as well as, potential of colder temperatures and higher wind speeds leading to cold wind chills going into the weekend. 

-Duff

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 46

 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

 

Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 49

 

Wednesday Night: Overcast. Low: 30

 

Thursday: Overcast. Flurries possible. High: 41

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

After some record breaking warm temperatures last week and a few storms this weekend, Missouri is back with some seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds dominate the sky this forecast period along with a high pressure system that's making it's way through the Midwest. This high pressure along with winds out of the N/NW are causing cool and calm conditions. Thursday is when a chance for some flurries starts to rise, but as of right now, it's still a bit unclear exactly when/if this will happen. With all of the clouds and the chance for precipitation on Thursday, this week would be a great week for some spring cleaning and self care. Don't let the clouds get you down!

- Cade

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 3/8/2022 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A relatively “quiet” pattern has set up over much of the CONUS. The main focus for this period is a weak shortwave that will impact the region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Due to a data outage in our lab, the NAM was used due to its availability of data over the GFS. The NAM and GFS have good consensus with each other and within themselves as seen in the GEFS and SREF plumes, until Thursday night when the next system will impact the forecast area.

A jet streak seen over the Ohio River Valley in the 250-hPa plots of height and wind will propagate eastward putting mid-Missouri in the left entrance region and therefore a convergence dominated pattern. Weak divergence can be seen beginning early Wednesday as the jet continues to move to the east. A shortwave seen in both this map and 500-hPa absolute vorticity, will round the base of the LW trough over the western half of the CONUS resulting in PVA from the southwest. This is set to impact the region overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. 

700 hPa and NAM soundings reveal a pathetic lack of moisture throughout the atmosphere. Soundings reveal what could be a saturated layer with respect to ice between 500 and 700 hPa. However, with weak forcing and a near 10 degree DD at the surface, this will only show itself in the form of mid-level cloudiness. 

Pesky wintertime temperatures will persist for the remainder of the forecast period as the 0-Celsius isotherm at 850 hPa stays well to the south over the MO-AR border. Low-level winds remain out of the NNW until the end of the period as the next system approaches the region from the west. Winds turn southerly, but are weak in nature likely resulting in weak WAA and little moisture advection. Longer-range NAM soundings do indicate a much more saturated profile with a dry layer present in the mid-levels. Could see some seeder feeder support of low-level cloud ice from upper-level clouds if forcing is strong enough. However this is beyond the scope of this forecast period and thus is a topic for future forecasters. MSLP plots support many of the above claims as surface high pressure associated with the convergent pattern aloft remains over the area despite the intrusion of the weak, upper-level low. 

- Travis

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 46

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

Wednesday: Increasingly cloudy. High: 49

 

Wednesday Night: Overcast. Low: 30

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

     After last weekend's storms and warmer temperatures, Mid-Missouri will see a return to calm weather and seasonable temperatures. A high pressure system blankets much of the lower Midwest and will continue to do so until Tuesday afternoon. This high pressure, in addition to northwesterly winds keep our temperatures cool. No precipitation is expected through Wednesday night, but keep an eye on the weather for some possible winter weather later this week.

 - McMullen

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Forecasters: Cochran, McMullen, Millsap

Date Issued: 3/7/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

The primary concern for this forecast was the gradual increase in temperatures and recurring cloudiness expected through the first part of the week. The GFS was the model utilized as guidance mainly due to its handling of surface temperatures which the NAM tended to overshoot. There was also greater consensus between models in the GEFS 2-m temperature plumes when compared to the SREF.

The low-pressure system experienced over the weekend has moved its way east of the CWA as a cold front has moved in its place. Cloud cover has lingered over Central Missouri on Monday, ensuring a lack of sunshine that helped to maintain cold temperatures throughout the day.

Zonal flow on 250 mb plots of wind speed and divergence suggests consistent conditions as the CWA remains straddled underneath the polar jet stream up until Tuesday night. At around 03 to 09Z Wednesday, a shortwave trough will push the jet stream toward the southeast. This shortwave coincides with a moderate burst in 500 mb circulation, indicating a shift of the jet stream away from Missouri. Since the jet stream will then be positioned to the south after this takes place, it is safe to conclude that temperatures will remain cool for the rest of the forecast period. Northwesterly winds at 850 mb which shift to northeasterly on Wednesday will also help maintain these cool temperatures.

The 700 mb relative humidity map shows moisture moving through Tuesday evening, possibly an indication of mid-level cloudiness. This possibility was further examined using 12Z soundings, where the 700-500 mb layer was relatively moist between 00 and 09Z Wednesday. Veering winds near the surface and modest Omega values - particularly at 03Z on Wednesday - may help to encourage increasing cloud cover. Precipitation does not appear likely due to the existence of dry layers through various portions of the atmosphere, particularly near the surface. However, winter precipitation may become a distinct possibility starting Thursday as a long wave trough begins moving through the Four Corners region. Future forecasters should be on the lookout for any developments associated with this feature.

-Millsap

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Cloudy. High: 35

Monday Night: Becoming clear. Low: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 46

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 49

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

 After the taste of spring temperatures mid-Missouri saw last week, the winter chill has made a comeback.  Even with spring right around the corner, temperatures this week will be slightly below average for mid-March. High temperatures will stay above freezing and no precipitation is expected for the start of the week. Currently a low pressure system is dominating our region, until a high pressure system settles in later today. Conditions will remain calm for the rest of the forecast period. Looking at the week ahead, it seems more winter weather is on the way, so stay tuned for timing and accumulation updates! 

- Gromada

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Forecasters: Baker, Bongard, Gromada

Date Issued: 3/7/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast period, it seems that the weather will be quite calm, but cooler than last week for mid-Missouri. The model that was chosen for this shift was the GFS as it seemed to handle the cooling temperature trend better than the NAM. Soundings and NBM were used as a guidance for this forecast as it seemed to have a grasp on sky conditions and temperatures for the beginning of the week.

This weekend's low pressure system has pushed northwest out of the CWA, as the cold front attached to the system moved northwest to southeast through the state Sunday evening. Trailing precipitation and left over moisture will give way to a few sprinkles this morning in southeast Missouri, while mixed precipitation could fall in central and north Missouri.  Accumulations will be limited to grassy or elevated surfaces. Travel will not be impacted as the cold, dry air will quickly replace these conditions Monday morning.

As the low pressure system pushes east Monday, a high pressure system will fills its place. The high pressure system will push east into the Middle Mississippi Valley bringing in cool, dry conditions starting Monday afternoon. Winds will be out of the northwest bringing in cooler, drier temperatures. Overcast conditions and winds will keep temperatures cooler than average today with highs getting up to the middle 30s.

Northwesterly flow at the surface sporting 30 knot winds Monday morning as the cooler temperatures move into the middle Mississippi Valley. The dry air will help eliminate the clouds throughout the day into the night, Monday. Cloud cover will break overnight due to the dry air moving in. Clearing throughout the night will give way to the warmer temperatures forecasted on Tuesday.

Westerly flow aloft will be disturbed by a shortwave pattern over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A surface low associated with this shortwave will push through the lower Mississippi Valley, keeping precipitation south of the CWA. A LLJ associated with this system was seen over the Southeastern United States. The moisture and wind profile for this system will inhibit any precipitation for the mid-Missouri area Wednesday; however, this will lead to upper level clouds and partly cloudy conditions Wednesday. Slight circulation is seen over the area on the 500-mb vorticity map; however, due to the drier conditions, cloud cover will be the only condition to forecast for. Relative humidity values stay quite low as the persistent northwest flow dominates the area.

A long wave begins to deepen over the Four Corners area Wednesday and begins to move into the Rockies, future forecasters should monitor this system closely.

-Baker