Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Wednesday: Showers early, Partly Cloudy. High: 69

Wednesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 45  

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Low:64

Thursday Night: Clear. High: 39

Friday: Sunny. High: 71

 

 

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Discussion: 

Finally, Rain! Much needed rain Wednesday morning will lead to drier and cooler temperatures through the mid-week before a small warm up as we enter the weekend.

- Russell

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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis

Date Issued: 10/12/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Rain and thunderstorms this morning are expected to give way to cooler and drier conditions to end out our week. An area of low pressure currently located over southern Canada is beginning to move south and west into the upper Mississippi river valley. A cold front associated with the low pressure is bringing showers and thunderstorms this morning with cooler temperatures this evening. A reinforcing cold front is expected to follow Thursday morning further pushing our temperatures to slightly below average. With the low positioned to our northeast throughout the entirety of the forecast period, northwest flow is expected to persist throughout the week keeping temperatures cooler and dry. Due to a better performance with precipitation timing as well as morning temperatures we sided more with the 12km NAM.

In the upper levels, a large trough associated with the area of low pressure located over the upper-Midwest and Canada brought an area of increased divergence at the 300-mb level associated with the cold front that is currently traversing through the region. A jet streak will enter the region Thursday morning bringing the earlier noted reinforcing cold front. Dry air will prevent any extensive cloud cover from developing keeping the upper levels clear. The trough and low pressure look to remain mostly stationary keeping the northwest flow over the entirety of the state through Friday evening maintaing the clear conditions.

In the mid levels, there is strong agreement between both models that dry air following this morning's front will be maintained throughout the forecast period. Both models agree in an increase in vorticity at the 500-mb levels Thursday morning as that front moves in. In a similar theme to the upper levels, the low is evident across southern Canada and it maintains it positions throughout the forecast period. Both models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of the secondary front, this with some weak forcing supports isolated cloud development in the mid-levels. Clouds are expected to exit the region as the front pushes through leaving Friday sunny and warmer.

In the lower-levels, strong cold air advection is apparent following the passing of the weak cold front early Thursday morning. Dry air will remain locked in at the surface, so despite moisture and forcing mentioned in the mid-levels, precipitation chances look very low. Things remain dry, with a clear sky on Friday.

-Russell

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 60

 

 

Wednesday: Rain with clearing in the afternoon. High: 69

 
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 45

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 64

 

 

 Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39

 

 

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Discussion: 

The rain we have been waiting for is finally on the way! A cold front will pass through Wednesday morning. After the front passes through, expect fair weather and very few clouds for the rest of the week. 

- Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 10/11/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

We decided to use both the GFS20 and NAM12 models. The reason we are using both of these models is because they agree on the timing and location of the frontal passage, areas of moving air, and mid to low-level moisture. For soundings, we tended to use the GFS over the NAM even though they mostly agreed. The reason the GFS was used was because the NAM was predicting possible severe convection while the GFS was not. The main area of concern we were observing was the deep trough that is currently sitting over the Dakotas.

At the 250mb level, a deep trough off to the west was very visible. The trough is the product of a low pressure system in Manitoba, Canada. At around 12Z Wednesday, the trough will be right over us bringing upper-level divergence over our location. The jet stream will dip into our area at 00Z Thursday bringing lots of divergence which follows the jetstreaks. This will bring us cold and dry air throughout the rest of the week. 

At the 500mb level, both models agree that the mid-level trough will dip down into the upper midwest  and bring plenty of vorticity into the area around Wednesday at 12Z. This corresponds to the trough at the 250mb level and the divergence the trough brings with it. Thursday at 3Z the vorticity comes back into the forecast area. After the vorticity comes through, it will clear out for good for the rest of the forecast period.

At the 700mb level, there is partial drying of the air overnight Tuesday. This does not last very long as the area begins to saturate Wednesday morning. There will be an ample amount of Omega during the frontal passage which will provide lift. While convection is possible, severe convection is not expected. After the front passes, the area will dry up again Wednesday afternoon. However, during Wednesday night the area saturates in partly cloudy skies are expected. The area dries out Thursday and no clouds will be expected.

At the 850mb level, the Low-level jet(LLJ) is very strong over the CWA tonight into tomorrow morning. It is apparent that a cold front passes through our area sometime between 15Z and 18Z Wednesday. Before the front passes through, there will be sufficient moisture over our area. The moisture will stay in our area until the frontal passage occurs. After the front passes through the LLJ leaves and dies out. Also, the low-level moisture moves away from our area with the cold front. Our area will remain dry for the rest of the week after the cold front passes through.

The main cause for concern is the cold front that will pass through our area sometime from 15Z-18Z Wednesday. This will bring rain to our area. We forecasted .1"-.2" inches of rain. However, after the front passes, the forecast is calm with very few clouds expected.

-Meier

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Tuesday: Rain. High: 71

 

 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 60

 

Wednesday: Rain followed by clear sky. High: 69

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 45

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 66

 

 

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Discussion:   

Rain is finally coming to mid-Missouri today and tomorrow. Today's rain will be light and persistent, ending this evening. This will be followed by the passage of a cold front tomorrow morning, bringing a band of rain and possible thunderstorms that will end after noon. Following the passage of the front will be few clouds and cooler temperatures.

- Clark

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker

Date Issued: 10/11/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

For this forecast we decided to use both the NAM and GFS, as both models agreed on the timing of the frontal passage, the distribution of moisture in the mid- and lower levels, and areas of vertical motion. We decided to lean more towards the GFS because NAM soundings for this forecast period showed CAPE increasing to 2500 J/Kg overnight Tuesday, which ultimately makes us feel uncertain in the NAM's capabilities in initialization for this forecast run.

Starting off at 12z Tuesday, 700 and 850 mb relative humidity values of near 100% stretch from Indiana and eastern Iowa down to central Texas, completely covering Missouri. This broad area of saturation corresponds with high 500 mb vorticity, 700 mb vertical velocity, and the low level jet at 850. As the day progresses, the bulk of the low-level moisture will move off to our east, leaving us with a few clouds at 700 mb.

Overnight Tuesday we will see moisture at the low- and mid-levels dissipate ahead of the frontal passage Wednesday morning. Some clouds will remain due to residual moisture and moderate vertical motion at the 700 and 500 mb levels. Early Wednesday morning we see vertical motion increasing just before the cold front passes, which along with increasing moisture in the same area will lead to rain and embedded thunderstorms along the front.

This front is driven by a trough at 250 mb centered over Manitoba. This trough will bring the polar jet down to Missouri, providing our region with cooler temperatures and drier air. This is evident in soundings from Wednesday 21z, where our low-level moisture content decreases after winds transition to the northwest. Due to this, 850 mb temperatures dropped around 7 degrees behind the front around 16-18z Wednesday. 

Tuesday's rainfall should amount to 0.1" to 0.2", and Wednesday's rainfall should amount to 0.1" to 0.2" as well.

-Clark

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 60

 

 

Tuesday: Rain. High: 70

 

 

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low:61

 

Wednesday: Scattered showers throughout morning and afternoon. High: 72

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 46

 

 

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Discussion:   

Grab a rain jacket or an umbrella tomorrow morning. Moisture will be moving into the region overnight, leading to showers tomorrow morning and throughout the day. Showers will continue into Wednesday morning until a cold front pushes through the region, bringing a mass of colder, drier air into central Missouri later Wednesday.

- Cook

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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 10/10/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

For our forecast, we relied on the GFS. Both the GFS and NAM were within two degrees of accuracy and both were in agreement with the location of a high pressure system over Alabama and the Appalachian Mountain Range. We also consulted with the NBM for temperature guidance. Our problem of the day is the timing of the arrival of a cold front and precipitation amounts.

At the upper levels, the GFS shows the upper-level jet and a trough entering mid-Missouri. It begins to move in during Tuesday and the jet stream itself moves in late into Wednesday.

At the mid levels, with the high pressure system over the Southeast moving out, the winds will shift to the south bringing moisture to mid-Missouri. Clouds will begin to form Monday night, which will act as insulation to keep Monday night temps in the 60s. There seems to be two fronts moving in through Central Plains Tuesday to Wednesday. The first wave will come from the Southwest with weaker vorticity. The low-level jet is bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico saturating both the 500 and 700 MB levels. The bulk of our rainfall will fall during Tuesday. Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) runs show ranges between a quarter of an inch and half an inch on Tuesday. Model soundings were consulted to determine the arrival of the rain to be in the late morning hours of Tuesday. Most will be showers over the area but we cannot rule out a chance for a stray thunderstorm over the forecast area. There will be a break during the early part of Wednesday but shortly after a second wave will move through.

Following suit with the first wave, this wave brings both stronger levels of vorticity at 500 MB and vertical velocity at 700 MB. The low-level jet still brings up moisture from the south and winds from the southwest. This will change into Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will shift to the NW and dry air will follow. QPF readings show an additional tenth of an inch falling throughout Wednesday. This system could move out of mid-Missouri late Wednesday bringing dry air and a clear sky into late Thursday morning.

-Herion

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

 

Friday Night: Clear. Morning Frost Expected. Low: 34

 

Saturday: Sunny. High: 64

 

 

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. High: 43

 

Sunday:  Few Clouds. Low: 73

 

Sunday Night: Scattered Clouds. High: 48

 

 

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Discussion:   

These cooler temperatures are due to a high pressure system that's moving behind a cold front that passed through the region late Thursday night. By the end of the weekend temperatures will warm back into the seasonal average just in time for some pumpkin picking! Clouds are making an enterence by Sunday giving some opportunities of shade.

- Labit

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Forecasters: Easter, Labit, Travis, Allen

Date Issued: 10/07/2022 6:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Freezing winter temperatures are making an appearence tonight all thanks to northwesterly flow that is pushing dry arctic air into the region causing frost to form overnight tonight into the early morning hours on Saturday.

 

An upper-level longwave trough associated with a low-pressure system to the north is responsible for driving dry arctic air southerly into the region causing temperatures to drop to near freezing levels overnight into early tomorow morning causing a frost to occur. A shortwave trough is also expected to move through the area this afternoon. This shortwave is responsible for the forcing of the cold front that made its way through earlier this morning however, due to the lack of moisture and forcing the shortwave's impact will be purely in the temperature field. Aditionally, the lack of moisture throughout the weekend will keep the region virtually cloudless. The GFS and the NAM are in a disagreement over the saturation in the low levels. GFS shows little to no saturation throughout the weekend while the NAM keeps us significantly saturated. Due to the NAMs tendency to exaggerate saturation I have decided to agree with the GFS keeping us cloudless until Sunday. The GFS also shows CAA in the CWA slowly start to transition to WAA by Sunday at 00z. This is associated with a surface high over the Dakotas which will move into the region by early saturday morning switching us to a southerly flow that will slowly raise our temperatures back to the fall average for Saturday and Sunday.

-Easter

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 61

 Friday Night: Clear. Patchy Frost. Low: 36

 

  Saturday: Sunny. High: 64

 

  Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

  Sunday: Mostly Sunny: High: 73

 

 

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Discussion:   

Temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50s today after the passage of a cold front last night. An area of high pressure will move near our region tonight, resulting in a clear sky overnight and allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Some areas of frost are possible tonight, especially in rural areas. Clear conditions will persist through the weekend, as temperatures will rebound to near average by Sunday (Avg. High 72).

-Peine

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Forecasters: Peine, McCormack, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/07/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A mixture of both the 06Z NAM and 06Z GFS were utilized for this forecast. There was a large temperature spread between the NAM and the GFS for both highs and lows. With no identifiable reason for model discrepancy, a blend between the two models was used for forecasting high and low temperatures, as well as sky conditions for our forecast period.

At 250mb and 500mb, we are tracking two shortwaves, one located over the Northeastern CONUS, and the other located over the Upper Midwest. Both of these shortwaves are associated with a trough positioned over the Eastern half of the CONUS. At 700mb and 850mb, there are currently pockets of moisture located over our region, which is the reason for the patchy clouds this morning. The shortwave located to our North will push southward today, pushing out the little amounts of moisture we currently have at 700mb and 850mb. This will allow a slow moving area of high pressure, that is currently located over North Dakota, to sink southeast into our region Friday Night into Saturday, and will lead to clear conditions for the remainder of the weekend.

The slow moving area of high pressure will be positioned over northwest Missouri tonight, which will lead to calm northerly winds at the surface. With the center of high pressure within close proximity to our region tonight, subsidence will be maximized, resulting in efficient radiational cooling, allowing our temperatures to drop in to the mid 30s. Urban areas will be warmer while rural and low lying areas may approach the freezing mark tonight, due to the little amount of mixing that will occur overnight with calm winds in place at the surface. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been put in effect from 06Z to 14Z Saturday for Columbia and surrounding areas.

 

The area of high pressure will slowly move southeast over our region Saturday resulting in calm winds and below average high temperatures once again. By Sunday, the slow moving area of high pressure will be located over Tennessee, placing our region in a southerly flow at the surface, allowing temperatures to rebound to near average (Avg. High 72).

- Peine, McCormack, Aldrich

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 44

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 59

  

   Friday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 

 

   Saturday: Clear. High:64

 

  Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

 

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Discussion:   

Cooler temperatures are here to stay, as we continue into the upper 50s through the weekend. As cold air moves across mid-Missouri, expect increased moisture and clouds tonight. However, these clouds won't last long, as high pressure will bring clear skies for the rest of the weekend.

Rangel

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Rangel, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 10/06/2022 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 18Z run of the GFS was utilized for this forecast. The GFS and NAM had very different predicted highs and lows, and NAM seemed to reach less of a consensus than GFS between model runs. Along with this, NBM was consulted for temperature forecasting, which happened to run much closer to the GFS predicted temperatures than the NAM's.

At 250 mb, eastern CONUS exhibits zonal air flow, with winds from the west. A low pressure system to the northeast results in a wind shift to a northwesterly component. This, combined with the polar jet shifting southerly, will bring cooler air from the north. The polar jet will couple with the subtropical jet over Kentucky and Tennessee on Friday evening, however, this will not impact temperatures in mid-Missouri. 

A low pressure system seen over Illinois at 500mb is associated with vorticity over the area as well. On Friday, these levels see a wind shift over central Missouri from a westerly flow to northwesterly flow, due to the low pressure system off to the east.

The relative humidity map at 700mb shows more moisture entering central Missouri at 00Z on Friday. When soundings were consulted for moisture content, we can confirm that the presence of moisture at 700mb is likely clouds, and not any precipitation is expected. The moisture advects out of the area Friday afternoon, leaving a clear sky behind.

A northerly wind shift at 850mb over mid-Missouri will result in cooler temperatures beginning Thursday evening, which will remain throughout the weekend. Along with this, high pressure will begin to affect Missouri on Friday, bringing a lack of moisture, and therefore clear skies for the remainder of the forecast period.

Solenoids over the midwest, including Mizzouri, were evident on the surface map, and coincided with a northerly wind, indicating CAA overnight on Thursday. 

- Rangel