Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Friday - Clear skies. High: 70-74

            

Friday Night - Clear skies. Low: 50-54

 

 

 Saturday - Mostly Sunny. High: 70-74

Saturday Night -  Clear skies. Low: 54-58

Sunday - Clear morning, becoming partly cloudy in afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

The unseasonably warm weather continues into the weekend thanks to the large ridge over the majority of the country. Fair weather will accompany the warm temperatures during the daylight hours today and this weekend with light jacket weather in the evenings and overnight. No rain is expected through this forecast period at this time. The areas next best shot at precipitation will be next week with the ridge finally moves on and conditions change here in mid-Missouri.

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Forecaster: McGuire, Bongard

Issued:  10 AM CST 6 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

 

 Using the predicted minimum temperature for this morning versus the observed minimum temperature, GFS was just to use for this forecast. SREF and GEFS plumes were used for a consensus of model outputs.

 

The 12Z 250-mb chart of isotachs and geopotential height indicate a meridional flow with the main jet stream flow being located in southern Canada, placing much of the CONUS south of the ridge whose axis lies in the area above Lake Winnipeg. Missouri, along with most of the Midwest, is experiencing northeasterly flow at this level indicating a cutoff low-pressure system centered to our south near the Gulf of Mexico. As time progresses, the cutoff low will decay due to a deep trough upstream trekking into Texas from the Desert Southwest resulting in divergence over the low. We then remain under the ridge for the remainder of the weekend. Sunday afternoon at 21Z this deep trough will be settling into the southern CONUS and moving into the Midwest by early next week.

Currently the 500-mb Absolute Vorticity and height chart is showing circulation associated with the cutoff low extending into the southernmost areas of Missouri. This cutoff low will continue to advect vorticity into the region through the entire weekend, but it will not be enough to have any major influences on the overall weather at the surface.

Looking at the low-level relative humidity charts, the atmosphere stays dry until Saturday afternoon when moisture is advected from the south resulting in some low-level clouds. We keep the low-level moisture enough for cloud development through Sunday afternoon.

This weekend will stay unseasonably warm with southerly winds in place through the forecast period. The overall lack of moisture in the atmosphere decreases the chances for the region to see any precipitation. Going into next week the deep trough that will be located over the western CONUS will be need to be watched for future forecasts.

 

 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night - Clear skies. Low: 52- 56

 

Friday - Sunny. High: 70-74

Friday Night - Clear. Low: 50-54

Saturday - Mostly clear. High: 70-74

Sunday - Mostly clear morning becoming partly cloudy in afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

Expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to persist into the weekend for Columbia. Thursday night remains clear as temperatures drop to the mid-50s. Friday morning will see a high pressure system pass, maintaining clear skies and comfortable temperatures. Don't expect much change into Friday night, with temperatures staying in the low-50s. Saturday may see some clouds, but will be mostly clear throughout the day. As the weekend draws to a close we could see some cloud cover build up during Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than days prior.

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Forecaster: Cochran, Lamb, Nixon, Travis

Issued:  5 pm CST 5 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

 

This weekend continues to see unseasonably warm temperatures as a high pressure system passes through Columbia. This forecast was assembled using the 12Z GFS, and SREF/GEFS plumes.

An upper-level trough moves out of the Columbia area on Thursday, leaving our atmosphere dry and mild for the next few days. The upper level low over eastern Texas becomes cut off resulting in split flow with a ridge over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys as the cut-off low sits over the lower Mississippi Valley. The lack of circulation and moisture left in the wake of the exiting trough is responsible for the clear, calm skies persisting for the majority of the weekend. Finally, on Sunday afternoon GFS plots of 500-hPa height and absolute vorticity shows some weak circulation. Trace amounts of moisture are shown at 700 hPa originating from the low pressure system over eastern Texas. This results in the partly cloudy skies Sunday afternoon which is supported by GFS soundings. SSW winds at 850-hPa will result in continued WAA keeping temperatures steady and warm. This pattern reflects down to the surface, leaving us with temperatures in the low 70s.

The low pressure system from the SSW should be focused on going into next week, as well as cloud cover, as that will affect future forecast's temperatures. 

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday - Becoming mostly sunny. High: 70-74

            

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 52-56

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

 

Friday Night- Clear. Low:48-52

 

Saturday- Sunny. High: 70-74

 

 

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Discussion: 

A mild few days are in the forecast for mid-Missouri. Winds today are light and out of the south with temperatures getting into the 70s. Overnight, clear skies and light winds. This forecast is going to carry us through Saturday with very similar temperatures and winds, keeping us in a San Diego-like forecast. There is no precipitation in the forecast, creating a beautiful weekend. These unseasonable temperatures won't last forever, so get out and enjoy them!

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Forecaster: Ede, Sumrall

Issued:  10 AM CST 5 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06Z GFS, Skew-T analysis and SREF plumes. The focus for this forecast period will be the unseasonably warm temperatures and mild conditions

An upper-level trough will move out of the area Thursday leaving behind a calm atmosphere. Thursday morning will start off partly cloudy due to moisture in the mid-levels. This moisture will begin to dry out as we move through late morning into early afternoon making way for mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average. Southerly flow will aid in warm air advection helping keep our temperatures in the low 70's range that we have been enjoying this week.Clear skies can be expected throughout the rest of the forecast period as a high pressure system moves into place.

Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the low 50's, once again thanks to that southerly flow. Lack of moisture will keep any precipitation out of the forecast. All in all a nice end to the work week.

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Becoming mostly cloudy, late. High: 70-74

 

 

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 50-54

 

Thursday - Becoming sunny. High: 70-74

            

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 52-56

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

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Discussion: 

Today, temperatures reach the low 70s while we experience windy conditions, and upper level clouds will form this evening as temperatures drop into the low 50s. The clouds will move away by Thursday afternoon as temperatures reach the low 70s again. Thursday night will be clear, allowing the high temperature on Friday to be slightly cooler. This entire forecast period will be relatively dry with no chance for precipitation.

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Forecaster: Beasley, Sumrall

Issued:  9 AM CST 4 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was put together using the 06Z GFS and SREF plumes. The main focus for this forecast period is the high pressure system to our southeast allowing for warm, clear conditions, and a shortwave trough moving through our area early Thursday morning. 

On Wednesday, there is a tight pressure gradient over Missouri allows for strong winds from the southwest. The skies will be clear until clouds start to build later this evening, allowing insolation to help raise our high temperature into the low 70s. A shortwave trough will move through our area overnight, bringing enough moisture with it for some upper level clouds to develop. Slight circulations and negative values of omega are associated with this trough, but those smaller values combined with the smaller amount of moisture will not allow for precipitation to form. The GFS sounding show dry air under the clouds, so any precipitation that did fall would evaporate.

Clouds will move away by Thursday afternoon, and the southwesterly flow at the surface combined with clear skies will allow temperatures to rise to well above average again. Thursday night, skies will remain clear, allowing for radiational cooling. Friday's high temperature will be slightly lower than Thursday's.

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Becoming mostly cloudy. High: 70-74

 

 

Wednesday Night - Mostly cloudy. Low: 50-54

 

Thursday - Becoming sunny. High: 70-74

Friday - Sunny. High: 68-72

 

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Discussion: 

Today, Mid-MO saw temperatures reach the lower to middle 70s with a nice southerly breeze and lots of sunshine. The southerly winds and clear skies come from a high pressure system sitting to our SE. We expect to see warmer overnight temperatures due to the warmth of the southerly winds and eventual cloud cover that will work its way into Mid-MO midday tomorrow. Around noon tomorrow, high-level clouds will make a return to Columbia, but they will not inhibit warming, so we still expect above average temperatures through the week. Cloud coverage will continue through Thursday morning, before clear skies dominate once again.

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Forecaster: Baker, Clemons, Ozdas

Issued:  4 PM CST 3 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated with guidance from the 12Z NAM & SREF. The main focus for this forecast period is fair weather from a quasi-stationary anticyclone to our SE, followed by a shortwave that could disrupt this pattern tomorrow and Thursday. 

At 250mb, we currently sit under a ridge that is stretching across the Midwest, ending near northern Dixie Alley. Dry conditions exist through all mandatory levels of the atmosphere, as a high pressure system over the southern Mississippi Valley spews southerly winds into Mid-MO. This has helped provide warmer than average temperatures and sunny skies both yesterday and today. 

The 12Z NAM at 500mb forecasts a shortwave to move closer to the Midwest over the next 24 hours. Little vorticity is associated with it as this was trying to form into a cutoff low over the southern Rockies, but succumbed to the flow of the jet at 250mb. However, this upper-level shortwave is expected to bring us a little bit of moisture in the form of cloud cover from roughly 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday. There is no moisture and/or lift with this system present in the lower 500mb of the atmosphere, so no precipitation is expected with these clouds. Since this moisture is only present in the mid-atmosphere, we will probably only see mid-level clouds that would not assist in inhibiting warmth from the Sun's shortwave radiation. 

Future forecasters should pay attention to the intensity of the shortwave and whether or not it carries any vorticity or shear with it as it makes its way eastward. At this point, the 500mb shortwave only poses a threat for cloud cover, but it would be worth monitoring as it inches towards us in the next 24 hours.

    Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 38-42

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 68-72

Tuesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. High: 70-74

 

Thursday - Decreasing clouds, sunny by afternoon. High: 68-72

 

 

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Discussion: 

Yesterday we had a cold front move through Mid-MO and saw very windy conditions, but today our weather is dominated by a high pressure system located to our southeast. This pattern will continue through the next couple days as we warm up throughout the forecast period. Cloud cover will increase tomorrow night which will keep Wednesday morning low temperatures warm. However these clouds will not inhibit warming for the rest of the week.

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Forecaster: Benson, Clemons

Issued:  4 PM CDT 2 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast was generated using the 12Z NAM and GFS supplemented with the SREF and GEFS. The main focus for this forecast is a dominant anticyclone followed by a shortwave expected to move into Mid-MO by mid-week. 

Today, Columbia saw lots of sunshine with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s from the anticyclone, which is positioned over SE Arkansas as of 18Z Monday. This system is expected to impact us through tomorrow bringing sunshine and southerly winds causing above average temperatures for the first few days of November. The trough over the eastern CONUS proceeds a ridge that is beginning to form over the western half of the country. This ridge in combination with the anticyclone associated with little to no moisture will create a warm and calm Election Day.

Beginning Tuesday night, our attention will shift to an upper level shortwave that is forecast to move across the lower Midwest. Currently, this shortwave is trying to become a cutoff low from the 250mb jet stream over the SW CONUS. The NAM and GFS suggest that the low will succumb to the flow of the jet and make its way eastward. However, once it reaches Missouri, it will have sufficient values of vorticity (models indicate ~10-20 s^-1 at 500mb over Mid-MO) and moisture to provide some mid to upper-level clouds Tuesday night through Thursday morning. This shortwave is not expected to produce rain because there is not sufficient moisture and lift in the lower 500mb of the atmosphere. One of the reasons why this shortwave is not expected to become a cutoff low is due to the fact that this system is not vertically stacked.

Future forecasters should pay attention to the track and intensity of the forecast shortwave. The latest model runs suggest a weaker shortwave than previous runs. At this point in time, only partly cloudy skies are expected from this but it is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of days.

 

 

                                                              Current Conditions at Sanborn Field         

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Monday Night - Clear skies. Low: 38-42

Tuesday - Abundant sunshine. High: 68-72

Tuesday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 46-50

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. High: 70-74

 

 

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Discussion: 

Very pleasant weather is in store for this first week of November. As high pressure develops to our south and east, Columbia will experience southwesterly flow at the surface, allowing for plenty of warm air to be ushered into the region. This will result in above-average temperatures each day of this forecast period, with afternoon highs nearing 60 today and approaching or even exceeding 70 Tuesday and Wednesday. While clear skies will dominate through Tuesday evening, a disturbance is expected to develop Tuesday night, helping to add some clouds to our sky Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

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Forecaster: Ritter

Issued:  10 AM CDT 2 November 2020

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

The main concerns for this forecast period are temperatures and the influence of a developing shortwave on our weather late Tuesday into Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was used as primary guidance, supplemented by the SREF.

At the time of writing, a 250-hPa jet streak was located to the east of Columbia, arcing around the base of a longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes. This longwave trough was even more apparent at 500 hPa, with a ridge building toward Columbia from the Rockies. Low-level moisture was non-existent, with low level winds beginning to shift from northwesterly to southwesterly. At the surface, a center of high pressure was located over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Winds at Sanborn Field had shifted to the south.

Looking ahead to the forecast period, pleasant weather will be the name of the game. The GFS shows the upper-level trough exiting the CONUS today, allowing the ridge to take control. The GFS, however, suggests that the ridge will become less amplified throughout the day today, with the upper-level flow becoming more zonal by early Tuesday. GFS Skew-T's show veering winds in the lowest 200 hPa of the atmosphere through tonight, indicating WAA will be taking place. Thus, today will be warmer than yesterday, and Tuesday will be warmer than today. Furthermore, with GFS Skew-T's showing no moisture in the column through late Tuesday, cloudless skies can be expected in this time frame. Afternoon highs today and overnight lows tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's high and low, respectively, owing to the strength of the WAA and clear skies. Tuesday's afternoon high will be even warmer, likely approaching 70 degrees.

By Tuesday night, the GFS expects a 500-hPa shortwave trough to develop and amplify. This trough, however, will have very little moisture to work with overall, and no moisture in the low levels, so this disturbance will only be able to muster some cloud cover. Even so, there still will be plenty of sun peeking through the clouds Wednesday. With southwesterly flow persisting in the low- and mid-levels of the atmosphere, Wednesday will continue to be warm, perhaps even warmer than Tuesday, with afternoon highs near or even slightly above 70.