Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 52

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 40

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High: 55

Sunday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

A calm Friday evening and into Saturday for Columbia. An end to our fair weather is then on the way with a cold front entering the region overnight Saturday. This will bring with it a chance of precipitation and possibly thunderstorms. The fairly warm temperatures in mid-Missouri are foretelling rain for Saturday night. On Sunday night, however, there's a good a chance for mixed precipitation so be extra careful on the roads as the temperatures begin to fall. 

-Ethridge

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Forecasters: Ethridge, McDonald, Watts

Date Issued: 03/04/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

 

The 12Z run of NAM40 was used in this forecast mainly because of GFS inconsistencies in identifying accurate high and low pressure systems.

At 250 mb we have a meridional flow with a strong ridge drifting over the Midwest along with strong southwesterly winds of 70-80 knots. A lower level jet will be drifting over Mid-Missouri on Saturday at 3Z followed by divergence aloft through the end of this forecast period. The Midwest will also be getting a cold front veering over itself Saturday night due to the strong wind shift.

While there is a ridge that will drift over Missouri Saturday, it will transition into a strong trough on Sunday morning along with strong vorticity causing concern for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. The low pressure system will lead to rising motion and a trough in the Midwest  transitioning away from low vorticity and the ridge, meaning a chance for mixed precipitation is likely Sunday night.

700 mb readings indicate that tranquility will continue for the next 24 hours, as no major sources of moisture or omega should enter the area during that time period. However, a strong cold front will push through the Midwest late Saturday night, bringing a wall of moisture into the forecast area around 3z Sunday. The adjoining LPS will be centered north of the state, though, with the most concentrated values of uplift and humidity sweeping through Iowa instead. What follows is a brief period of inactivity for Sunday afternoon, before a weaker trough moves over Northwest Missouri, near Monday at 3z. Late Sunday night, near a much larger pocket of moisture flowing in from the southwest, putting us in the crosshairs for any precipitation the storm may bring. 

 

850 mb shows warm air receding Saturday, though is still strong enough to influence patterns over Missouri as the cold front passes through that night. This along with a lack of a definitive wind shift, should ensure that impacts from the front will be moderate in nature. Sunday will remain quiet until the overnight hours where the weaker, but more direct, trough cuts through. Temperatures drop further, and a sharp wind speed gradient should make precipitation, perhaps of multiple forms, very likely.

 

While inactivity continues through tonight, surface analysis supports the cooling trend through the weekend - the first significant cooling on Saturday night, and the second on Sunday night. Temperatures will still be high enough Saturday night to guarantee that any scattered precipitation will be in the form of rain, as the coldest areas in the wake of the front appear to bottom out in the high 30s. Temperatures will have all day Sunday to warm before the second trough barrels through that night, the center of which tracks along the path of I-44. With the center positioned to our south at this level, winter precipitation could certainly be a possibility - though it will ultimately depend on how warm our high will reach on Sunday. 

 

Skew-T soundings support the prediction of two precipitation waves, with high amounts of moisture availability present at 21z Saturday. By 6z Sunday morning conditions are much drier, but appear to build back in by 21z Sunday. Like Saturday night, Sunday night’s soundings are indicative of primarily rain, though the warm nose/temperature inversion is much more defined. Slight changes in this inversion could easily result in freezing rain or sleet, but snow appears to be one of the more unlikely events to occur. 

 

Future forecasters should make note of high pressure approaching Missouri on Monday, potentially inducing another sharp reversal of trends into a possibility of warmer weather later next week.

 - Watts, McDonald

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 68

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 54

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 40

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 38

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Winter and spring continue to clash into the first weekend of March. A mild and fair weather Friday will bring a tranquil end to the work week. Saturday will be even warmer thanks to southerly flow across mid-Missouri but take the umbrella with you for any Saturday night plans as a cold front passing through the Midwest will introduce the chance for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm before midnight. Clouds will hang around Sunday morning as temperatures fall throughout the day behind the aforementioned cold front. Total rainfall accumulations for this system is minimal with a trace to 0.1" expected by the end of the forecast period Sunday evening.

-Bongard

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 03/04/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The 12Z run of NAM40 was utilized for this forecast. While both the NAM40 and GFS20 reached a consensus on placement of the low pressure system and general atmospheric flow, the GFS20 had more accurate temperatures when compared to the observed from Sanborn Field this morning. However, technical issues caused us to choose the NAM over GFS. The focus of this forecast is going to be the low pressure system making way to mid-Missouri on Saturday night, bringing with it a cold front and showers. 

The ridge axis is stationed over Missouri on Friday afternoon, along with a southwesterly wind flow, leading to fair weather and warm temperatures. Beginning Saturday afternoon, and leading into the night, the jet stream makes way into mid-Missouri, along with divergence aloft. During the transition from ridge to trough on Saturday night, a shortwave trough finds its way to take hold of flow for a few hours. 

A weak area of circulation at 500mb finds its way into Missouri on Friday night. Yet stronger circulation associated with the shortwave takes hold on Saturday night, before the system pushes northeast. The low pressure system over western CONUS slowly makes its way towards the Midwest, but will not be impactful this weekend.

Saturday afternoon, moisture is evident at 700mb, in the form of a comma cloud associated with a low pressure system. This low pressure system is going to cause a cold front to enter the region Saturday night. With moisture present, and lifting from the front, showers are expected, along with possible thunderstorms. Accumulations are expected to be minimal at around 0.1". The front is going to cool off our weather; as Friday and Saturday are much warmer than Sunday.

The LLJ is stationed above Missouri from early Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. WAA takes place at the surface Friday morning into Saturday morning, leading to the warmer temperatures. At the surface, the wind shift due to the cold front is evident on Sunday at 06Z, shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly.

 -VanUnnik

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 34

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 68

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 54

Saturday: Warmer, less clouds. High: 72

Saturday Night: Showers moving in late. Low: 40
 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

In true Missouri fashion, a wide swath of temperatures and weather will be in store for us as we move into the weekend. Our weather will initially remain pleasant for the Columbia area, with temperatures near 70 and little troubling cloud cover. However, this trend will be upset Saturday evening when a Low Pressure System moves from Kansas into Iowa. A cold front extending from this low will sweep through Missouri, bringing back cooler temperatures and cloud cover. Luckily, due to little moisture present above our region, only trace amounts of precipitation is expected for the Mid-Missouri area.

- Noblitt

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Forecasters: Splater, Noblitt, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 3/03/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS20 was utilized for this forecast as it handled current temperatures and features well. Little variation was seen with other models as well as fairly tranquil conditions persisting through most of the forecast period. The NBM was also consulted for precipitation chances and cloud cover over the next few days.

The cooler weather for today will be short-lived as we return to a warmer flow regime to kick off the weekend. Winds aloft will begin to veer from the west tonight before a shift to southerly flow into Saturday. These changes come ahead of the first precipitation chances this region has seen nearly all week.

 

Conditions remain favorable ahead of the rain, save for more cloud cover Friday and Saturday. This is supported by scattered upper level divergence and marginal moisture, but there are no forcing mechanisms to bring any premature showers. Temperatures will also be bolstered by renewed WAA and highs will return to above average tomorrow and Saturday.

 

An upper level low will move onshore over southern California mid-Friday before translating northeast during the weekend. It will track well north of our area by late Saturday, sending a cold front sweeping through near 00Z Sunday. RH and 500 mb vorticity increase significantly with fropa progged from 00Z to 03Z Sunday. However, instability is lacking with less than ideal amounts of CAPE and pronounced low level wind shear that will work against potentially developing updrafts. Showers and occasional rumbles of thunder will still be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly due to high winds. 850 wind speeds will approach 50 kts early Sunday so damaging winds and power outages may be a concern with this system.

 

The bulk of the rainfall and storms will move in after this forecast period, though the NBM indicates trace precipitation late Saturday night. Conditions clear rapidly behind the front before another batch of active weather early next week.

- Splater

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 41

Thursday: Sunny. High: 56

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 38

Friday: Sunny. High: 68

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 54

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

We broke a record this afternoon! Columbia Regional Airport recorded a high of 81 degrees today, breaking the old record of 78 set back in 1992. These record breaking temperatures will come to an end tonight as a weak cold front will usher in cooler temperatures. High temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 50s, which is more seasonal for early March. The cold front does not make it that far south before it begins to lift back northward as a warm front, making its way through Columbia on Friday. This means temperatures on Friday will be back to above-average warmth with highs reaching the middle 60s and lows in the middle 50s. Cloudless skies will prevail today and tomorrow, but expect an increase in cloud cover on Friday into Friday night with that warm frontal passage.

- Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 3/02/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

This forecast was constructed from the GFS20 model. GFS, in comparison to the NAM, showed closer temperatures to the observed temperature for Wednesday afternoon. GFS also accurately modeled the low-pressure system moving over Wisconsin and northern Iowa when contrasted to the current surface model map. The greatest question of this forecasting period is when the wind shift will occur over the next 24 hours allowing for cooler temperatures the next few days.

Wednesday at 21Z a jet stream shown at the 250-mb level is moving over the Northern portion of the United States. The strongest wind values are seen over mid-Minnesota and Wisconsin. This meridional flow features a ridge to the West centered over Idaho. 50-kt northwesterly winds impact Missouri Wednesday afternoon. This jet stream remains to Columbia's north for the rest of the week. The ridge seen to the West moves east over the next few days and will shift winds in Missouri westerly Friday at 18Z. A trough is seen Friday afternoon over Nevada placing the jet stream over Missouri. Divergence at 250-mb is over Columbia beginning 06Z Saturday.

No vorticity is over Columbia Wednesday afternoon. At 500-mb, circulation is North of the Great Lakes region. The atmosphere remains stable until Saturday at 00Z when vorticity moves eastbound over Missouri. This circulation exits the region Saturday 09Z.

The ridge over the Western portion of the United States is not impacting the relative humidity levels seen at 700-mb. A large high-pressure system over Nevada is supporting the dry conditions seen in Missouri. The majority of the relative humidity remains to the north. An increased level of relative humidity is over Northern Missouri for a brief time 09Z Thursday. Saturday at 00Z, Columbia's atmosphere will remain unsaturated. Increased moisture can be seen moving from Kansas to Iowa, but remains west of Missouri.

At 850-mb, weak westerly winds impact Missouri late Wednesday. The winds shift northerly Thursday at 03Z. This shift will slightly cool the area for the remainder of the week. Although states to the North will experience a large amount of cold air, Missouri's wind returns to a westerly flow for Thursday. The winds shift to southerly late Thursday afternoon and will stay from the south for the rest of the week. The southerly winds increase, showing values of 50-kts, by late Friday night into Saturday morning.

A low pressure system sits over Northern Missouri Wednesday afternoon seen at the surface. Winds shift northeasterly at the surface as a high pressure systems in the North moves eastward. Winds are weak and remain from the east until 15Z Friday when they shift to southerly. Warm air advection can be seen at the surface Friday afternoon. These solenoids remain over the mid-west for the remainder of Friday night into Saturday.

- Heienickle

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 78

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 39

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 56 

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 

Friday: Sunny. Clouds developing by late evening. High: 66

 

   

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Another day of warm, spring-like temperatures are in store for us today. In fact, we will be so warm that we may hit or break a record high for March 2^nd! The record high for March 2^nd was set in 1992 at 78 degrees, and that is what we have forecasted for today. Record breaking temperatures will not be sticking around for long: a cold front will be moving through mid-Missouri this evening. No rain will be associated with this cold front, just an increase in cloud cover. Even though temperatures will drop nearly 20 degrees between today and tomorrow, temperatures will still remain above average throughout the rest of the week with another warm up bringing us into the weekend.

 

-Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard
Date Issued: 3/2/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

With no precipitation expected until the weekend, high and low temperatures through Friday were the main focus for this forecast. The NAM was running significantly colder than what was observed earlier Wednesday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, was only slightly warmer than the morning-time observations. Furthermore, the GFS modeled an area of low pressure over Nebraska with greater accuracy. The GFS20 06Z run was ultimately chosen as the deterministic model, but the 13Z run of the HRRR was also utilized to assess the timing of a cold frontal passage later Wednesday evening. 

Mid-Missouri lacks jetstream influence throughout the majority of the forecast period as the polar jet hovers just north of the state while the subtropical jet dips south of Arkansas. However, by 00Z Friday, a small portion of the polar jet pushes south into northern Missouri. Similarly, at the same time, the subtropical jet begins to sneak northward into southeastern Missouri. These two jets then travel side-by-side through the end of the forecast period, but do not seem to have a great impact on the state of the atmosphere. This near-merging of the two jets will result in westerly winds over central Missouri instead of the northwesterly winds previously observed.No increase in upper-level divergence is to be expected with this near-merging of the jetstreams as there would be if jet coupling occurred. 

At 500 mb, an upper-level ridge is seen over the Central Great Basin region mid-day on Wednesday. It will not be until late Friday when the ridge pushes into the Central Plains. Just to the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough drapes itself just north of the NE-IA-MO border. This shortwave will generate vorticity late Friday afternoon, with vorticity being most enhanced southwest of the shortwave.

Central Missouri lacks moisture in the upper-levels throughout the forecast period. Although the vorticity mentioned above moves into Missouri late Friday, the lack of forcing and moisture renders it of little value. While some increased moisture is expected at 850-mb late Friday, it is not of great significance considering this level is still distant from saturation and there is no quality moisture depth. 

A low-level jet travels eastward through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. By the overnight hours, mid-Missouri will lose grasp of the strong, westerly winds associated with the LLJ.  Late Thursday evening, another LLJ develops over the central Rockies. As it heads into Missouri on Friday morning, southerly winds at this level will begin to steadily increase, bringing more moisture into the state at the 850-mb level. However, significant moisture will not be pulled into central Missouri until after 06Z on Saturday. 

Surface level analysis suggests that a cold front will move through the region later on Wednesday. The GFS modeled the passage occurring anywhere between 00Z and 03Z on Thursday. To narrow this time frame further, HRRR analysis was utilized. This analysis led to the belief that the frontal passage will occur just after 00Z but before 01Z on Thursday as winds develop a strong northerly component around this time, bringing in cooler air. Due to the lack of moisture and forcing, no precipitation is expected with the passage of this front.

GFS soundings exhibited the previously mentioned lack of moisture further. Come Friday evening, a developing moist layer is evident in the upper-levels of the atmosphere in preparation for the possible precipitation event on Saturday. Since a significant dry layer exists on Friday, it is unlikely for precipitation to occur before midnight.

- Macko

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. High: 78

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 39

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 56

 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 38

 

   

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

    This is a great week to get outside and soak up warm temperatures and sunshine! After weeks of the winter weather roller-coaster, the first day of March has blessed us with warm temperatures and clear skies. This pattern will continue throughout the middle of the week as high pressure to the southeast sends warm air from the south into Mid-Missouri. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s on Wednesday along with a clear sky. Late Wednesday evening a cold front passes through Columbia bringing cooler temperatures and a cloudier sky, but no precipitation is expected. Enjoy the spring-like weather!

-Duff

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr
Date Issued: 3/1/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

What a welcome to meteorological spring! Clear skies and temperatures that are 20 degrees above the monthly average are all due to a high pressure system over the Texan Gulf Coast and the jet streams being split around Missouri. We will be getting a dry cold front in the mid-week, but other than that March is entering like a lamb. For the forecast through Thursday night, we went with the NAM as the primary diagnostic model, due to its handling of the upper troposphere. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF were all performing similarly, likely because of the extremely calm conditions over the central CONUS. The NBM was also used for temperatures and we added in the HRRR to help decide the timing of the cold front. With the dry, warm air and some light to moderate winds, there is a chance of enhanced fire weather risks.

Just as we have been the past few days, Mid-Missouri is between the Polar and Sub-Tropical jet streams. The Polar jet is up near the Great Lakes region and the Sub-Tropical jet is flowing over Texas. This pattern will continue until a ridge, currently over the Rockies and northwest Mexico, begins moving east and shoves the Sub-Tropical jet to the northeast. The Sub-Tropical jet will begin moving into Kansas Thursday and Missouri Thursday night. We are not expecting any impacts from this feature during our forecasting period, however future forecasters should be aware of it.

As stated above, there is a high pressure system that is dominating our weather pattern. Currently, it is over east Texas helping drive warm and dry into the Great Plains. This flow of warm air will be interrupted by a dry, cold front early Wednesday evening. Winds are expected to shift from the south to the northeast at this time and cool us off over night, keeping our Thursday high temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, the dry, warm air and light to moderate winds could create a wildfire hazard. Sustained winds are not expected to exceed 15kts, but there could be gusts up to 20kts. The ground does still have some moisture left over from the snow-melt, so fire hazard impacts should be lessened. All in all, if you plan on having an open fire, be aware of a sudden spread of the fire and have a plan to contain it.

Another feature worth noting is the moisture in the Polar jet. As mentioned above, the Polar jet is expected to stay north of Missouri. However, if it were to push farther south, we could expect cooler temperatures and possibly some showers. Likely time for showers to occur, if the jet were to shift south, would be Wednesday evening with the cold front. This is not likely to occur, though.

Next shift should watch the Polar jet, to make sure it is not sliding south, and be prepared for a possible warm front moving through on Friday.

-Alexander

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Clear. High: 70

 

Tuesday Night: Starry sky. Low: 40

 

Wednesday: Clear and warm. High: 74

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 39 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 56

 

   

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

   

Happy first day of March! We're starting the month off with some spring like temperatures. A high pressure system just to the East is causing warm temperatures, breezy winds, and clear skies over the next few days. With a lack of moisture; however, we do have the chance for some fire weather! With winds gusting up to 25 mph, it's important to keep any fires contained, keep flammable objects away from fires, and follow all local laws and regulations. Along with that, now would also be a great time to check and clean smoke alarms/carbon monoxide detectors! Besides that, be sure to get outside and enjoy the sunny weather.

-Cade

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Forecasters: Cade



Date Issued: 3/1/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Some quiet and warm weather is in store for central Missouri as high pressure dominates the Midwest. There is also the chance for some fire weather with dry, windy conditions. GFS was chosen for this forecast as there seemed to be less spread in the GEFS plumes than in the SREF plumes, and GFS seemed to have a better handle on placement of the high than NAM. The NBM and GFS sounding were also used to aid this forecast.

A ridge is passing over the Mississippi river valley at 250 mb, which will be the pattern for the rest of this forecast. The polar jet stream resides across the upper Mississippi river valley, leaving Missouri with nothing much happening. Divergence in scarce as the ridge makes its way over on Wednesday through Thursday.

It's the same story for 500 mb as well, with not much going on besides a ridge moving through the Midwest. There's no vorticity over Missouri from Tuesday to Thursday as high pressure dominates.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, a ridge dominates the flow at 700 mb. There's little relative humidity over Missouri, leading to the potential for fire weather.

At 850 mb and the surface, the high pressure system resides just to the east of the Midwest, leaving Missouri with W/SW winds and clear skies. This, along with the ridging and lack of moisture aloft, means warm, quiet weather from Tuesday to Thursday. As previously mentioned, there is a potential for fire weather as dry, warm air dominates the Midwest along with sustained winds on Tuesday at 10-13 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Looking at soundings, the atmosphere stays dry from Tuesday to Thursday, meaning fire has the potential to spread rapidly. It is advised to keep outdoor fires contained as well as keep indoor fireplaces swept and clean, especially when in use. Now would be a great time to check and clean those smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors as well!

-Cade